2006 NFL Top Notch Picks
2007 Super Bowl Top Notch Pick
Sunday, February 4, 2007:
10 BONES Indianapolis/Chicago UNDER 48 The Dolphins went under in 6 of the 8 games they played this season in this stadium. None of those totals were lined over forty points and this one is over that. Miami allowed 16.2 points per game this season and the Bears allowed just 16.3. The Coilts have got to this point in the playoffs due their defense rising to the occasion. With possible wind and rain forecasted, the game will be slowed down and that pace should favor the under. I believe the Bears will run the ball and keep their defense fresh and the clock moving. Although the Colts have the best offense, it's usually the team with the best defense that dictates the pace of the game. WIN
Sunday, January 21, 2007:
10 BONES Chicago (-2.5) over New Orleans: 3:00 pm EST I will give the Saints credit for a great season, but playing in Chicago in January is not like playing anywhere else on the road. On a a cold wet track, the defense has the advantage and the Bears have the better defense. Chicago is 7-1 SU in their last 8 meaningful games. I like the Bears to be able to establish the run on offense and not put Grossman in a lot of high pressure passing situations. The difference in this game will be the defenses and I will lay the points with the Bears. WIN
Sunday, January 14, 2007:
5 BONES Seattle/Chicago OVER 37.5: The forecast call for a winter mix and I usually like the under in that situation. The Bears offense will be led by a quarterback that has had a knack for having some really bad games this season. I believe the Bears will focus on running the ball with two solid running backs. Three of the last 4 games between these two teams has gone over the total. WIN
Saturday, January 13, 2007:
5 BONES Philadelphia/New Orleans OVER 49: 8:00 pm EST This has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the playoffs. Both offenses rank #1 and #2 in the NFC in yardage offensively. The last 3 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and this one should be similar to the 54 point outburst earlier this season. With Lilo Sheppard not playing for the Eagles, the high flying offense of the Saints should not have trouble putting up points. WIN
Sunday, January 7, 2007:
5 BONES Philadelphia (-7) over New York Giants: 4:30 pm EST Jeff Garcia has led the Eagles in the second half of the season to be one of the better teams in the NFC. They have won 5 games in a row SU and have gone 3-1-1 ATS in those games. The Giants on the other hand, went 2-5 SU to end the season and were 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Giants have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Eagles. Philadelphia is the more experienced and better team as they have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs. The Eagles have much more character than the Giants and should be able to blow them out of the playoffs.
Saturday, January 6, 2007:
10 BONES Seattle (-2.5) over Dallas: 8:00 pm EST Hard to believe this is the same Seahawks team from a year ago, but they do have some key pieces back and healthy for the first time this season. Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Cowboys did a little worse than Seattle. The Cowboys went 1-3-1 ATS down the stretch and lost 3 of their last 4 games, one of them to Detroit. Seattle won easily in their last game against the Bucs and won 2 in a row ATS, including a game against the AFC favorite Chargers by just 3 points when they blew a late lead. I'll take the experience and the cold rain at home to favor the Seahawks as they should be able to get past the Cowboys. LOSS
Sunday, December 31, 2006:
10 BONES Houston (-5) over Cleveland: 1:00 pm EST WIN
5 BONES Chicago/Green Bay OVER 36: 8:15 pm EST LOSS
5 BONES Tennessee (-3) over New England: 1:00 pm EST LOSS
Sunday, December 24, 2006:
5 BONES Tampa Bay/Cleveland UNDER 37: 1:00 pm EST I like this game to fall under the total here as the Bucanneers have gone under the total in 12 of their last 16 games on the road. This stat is even better when they are playing their second straight game on the road as they have gone under 8 straight in that situation. The under has gone 11-4-1 in the last 16 home games for the Cleveland Browns. Zooming in on this stat when the Browns are home favorites agaisnt a non-divisional opponent, they have gone under in 6 straight games. With frigid temperatures and two inexperienced quarter backs, the total seems like a great value. WIN
4 BONES Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Baltimore: 1:00 pm EST The Steelers are have turned their season around and should be prepared to get revenge for their most embarrasing loss of the season. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS since the 2000 season when playing a team their lost to earlier that season. The Steelers have finished strong to end the season the last 3 years as they have gone 6-0 ATS in their last 2 games. The Ravens will be playing on the road for the third time in four weeks and will be starting a banged up McNair or their backup and very less productive Boller. Look for the Steelers to play all out an come up with the win here. LOSS
2 BONES Jacksonville (-3) over New England: 1:00 pm EST I like the Jaguars here as they should be able to get back on track at home against the Patriots. Jacksonville has gone a very solid 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Jacksonville has been very stingy at home as they have allowed just 9.1 points per game there this season. New England has been solid on the road, but when push comes to shove, in Jacksoville I will have to go with the home team and lay the points. LOSS
Saturday, December 23, 2006:
3 BONES Kansas City (-7) over Oakland: 8:00 pm EST I like the Chiefs in this contest as they have much more to play for than the lowely Raiders. Kansas City has been a solid 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC West and there is no reason for that not to continue today. The Chiefs have won 7 contests in a row against the Raiders SU and have won the last 3 ATS when playing in Oakland. The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row SU + ATS, where they have been outscored by an average of 15.3 points per game (two of those opponents were worse teams in St. Louis and Houston, both at home). Chiefs have not played their best ball lately, but the Raiders should be the cure for their ailing play. WIN
Sunday, December 17, 2006:
4 BONES Pittsburgh (-3) over Carolina: 1:00 pm EST This is another case where one team is heading in one direction while the other is the opposite. The Steeelers are the team heading in the winning direction as they have won 4 of their last 5 games SU (3-1-1 ATS). Carolina has fallen off as they have lost 3 games in a row SU and ATS. Delhomme may play for the Panthers today, but he has thrown the ball for two weeks. The Steelers have gone 7-3 ATS against the Panthers in their last 10 meetings and should be able to get the win and cover today. WIN
5 BONES St. Louis (+3) over Oakland: 4:15 pm EST The Rams may have fallen out of playoff contention, but it's hard to imagine that Oakland should be favored against anybody. The Raiders have lost 6 in a row SU and may be the leagues worst team. The Rams average over 100 yards more per game than the Raiders and should not have trouble scoring. Look for Stephen Jackson to have a big game on the ground and carry the Rams to victory on the road against a team that would like the first pick in the draft. WIN
4 BONES Minnesota (-3) over New York Jets: 1:00 pm EST Both of these teams are fighting for a wild card spot and will be playing hard. I like the home team here in the dome as they have gone a solid 9-4 ATS in their last 13 tilts at home. The Jets have been one of the most, if not the most, overachieving team this season. The Jets are quite banged up and will struggle to move the ball against a stingy Vikings rush defense that has allowed just 53.3 yards a game on the ground. Minnesota averages more yards per game and allows less. I'll lay the 3 with the Vikings at home. LOSS
3 BONES Jacksonville (-3) over Tennessee: 8:00 pm EST The Jaguars have looked very impressive the past two weeks with huge wins over Miami and Indianapolis. Garrard has been solid at QB and may be better than Leftwich. I must give the Titans credit for the way they have played lately. The problem is that the line makers and the public know as well. A few weeks ago this may have been a 7 to 10 point spread, but now it is just 3. There may be a possible letdown for the Jags, but even so they still should beat the Titans. LOSS
Saturday, December 16, 2006:
4 BONES Dallas (-3.5) over Atlanta: 8:00 pm EST The Cowboys took it on the chin last week against New Orleans and will put forth a better effort in this showdown with Atlanta. The Falcons seem like a franchise that is treading water as their main focus has been running the football. That is hard to do without a healthy backfield. The Falcons seem to falter when they see a good opponent as they have gone a measly 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records. The Cowboys look like the better, healthier, and playoff bound team that Atlanta is not. WIN
Sunday, December 10, 2006:
5 BONES Minnesota/Chicago UNDER 35: 1:00 pm EST This game calls for weather that has a chance of snow and a high of 26 degrees. Hard to see either of these teams putting up that many points as Minnesota's pass defense is stout and the Bears have one of the best defenses in all of football. The Bears have gone under in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss. The should try to run the ball as they will be facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Both teams will look to control the ball and the clock, thus making time run faster. Minnesota has gone under in 10 of their last 11 after scoring 30 points in their previous game. The last 3 meetings between these two have gone under when playing in Chicago and I expect this will be the fourth. LOSS
3 BONES New York Giants (+3.5) over Dallas: 4:15 pm EST This game is a must win for the Giants as they should bring their A game today after blowing a 21 point lead last week to the lowly Titans. The Giants are usually a solid bet against the NFC East as they have now gone an impressive 7-2-1 in their last 10 division games. This is mostly due in part to their success against the Cowboys, a solid 4-0-1 ATS record in their last 5 meetings. With chilly weather in New York, the team from Texas should find it hard to leave New York with a win. WIN
3 BONES Seattle (+4) over Denver: 8:15 pm EST This Sunday night football match-up should be good as I will take the points and the Seahawks in this game. Shaun Alexander returned last week and last week and is fresh and at full strength. Hassleback has also returned and shaken any rust he has had as well. The QB situation is up in the air in Denver as it will be a rookies first start or an ineffective Jake Plummer. Denver is struggling as they have lost 2 in a row SU and 3 in a row ATS. I like Seattle to rise up and beat the Broncos. WIN
Sunday, November 26, 2006:
5 BONES Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore: 1:00 pm EST If it weren't for turnovers the Steelers would be thrashing their opponents as they have out gained their opponents by 627 yards this season, but turnovers have cost them. When the Steelers are seeking revenge against a division opponents, they have gone a sweet 14-2 ATS in their last 16. The Steelers have won their last 2 games SU + ATS. Baltimore has a solid 8-2 SU record, but they have played some very close games and could easily be 5-5. The Ravens have caught good luck all season, while the Steelers have barely caught any. The law of averages should weigh out to the Steelers favor today.
10 BONES Minnesota (-6) over Arizona: 1:00 pm EST The Viking's have lost 4 games in a row and should put forth a great effort to get the win today. Arizona is the worst rushing team in the NFL and the Vikings lead the league in rushing defense. Arizona ranks 30th in the league in scoring and will find it hard to score enough in this contest to keep up. Johnson has gone 5-0 in games against the Cardinals in his career and he is due for a big game. Minnesota has gone a solid 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against the NFC and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home. Arizona has gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November and are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against NFC opponents.
3 BONES New England (-3) over Chicago: 4:15 pm EST The Patriots have had a well balanced attack on offense this season with a solid run game and Brady's passing attack. The Bears have a tremendous defense, but a third straight game on the road will be tough for the Bears. The Patriots have won the last 3 meetings between these two teams at home SU + ATS. New England is on a 5-2 run SU + ATS and looked impressive in a 35-0 romp over the Packers last week on the road.
Sunday, November 19, 2006:
4 BONES Cincinnati/New Orleans OVER 51: 1:00 pm EST Hard for me not to go with the over here as both teams pile up the points as they both have gone over in 6 of the 9 games they have played this season. The Bengals have gone over in 9 of their last 11 games as underdogs and in 6 of their last 8 overall. In their last 3 games respectively, the Bengals have played in games that averaged a total of 64 points and the Saints have an average of 57 points. The last time the Bengals offense played in a dome was last season when they put up 41 points in Detroit. New Orleans has the third ranked offense in the NFL and their defense has been exposed lately. Like a shoot out here.
3 BONES Houston (-2.5) over Buffalo: 1:00 pm EST I'll go with the Texans here as they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November. Houston has shown improvement throughout the season as they have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. With McGahee out of the lineup, an already struggling offense for the Bills will find it hard to score enough points on the road as they already average just 14.6 points per game on the road. Houston returns home after 3 straight road games and they have won their last 2 games SU + ATS at home. Although these teams have the same record, it appears Houston is improving, while the Bills are on the decline.
2 BONES Detroit (+2) over Arizona: 4:05 pm EST It looks as if the Lions are an improving team as their offense has started to take form, while the Cardinal's offense has looked horrid. Arizona has gone just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Detroit has won the last 3 meetings between these teams SU + ATS. Arizona has lost their last 3 games SU + ATS as they have not even been competitive against Dallas at home and on the road at Green Bay and Oakland. Both teams have bad defenses, but the edge on offense goes to the Lions. I will grab the two points on the road with the Lions as I feel they are the better team.
Sunday, November 12, 2006:
5 BONES Kansas City/Miami OVER 40: 1:00 pm EST This looks like a great spot for a high scoring contest. Kansas City has averaged 43 points in their games this season, peaking that total in their last 3 contests where the average score was 56 points. Miami has gone over in 3 straight games and the average score was a total of 46.3 points per game. The Chiefs have made the over 5-0-1 in their last 6 games. The over has taken the cash in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. With great playing conditions in Miami, I expect both teams to be able to put up over 20 points a piece, helping the over to take the cash.
2 BONES Baltimore/Tennessee UNDER 38: 1:00 pm EST I like the chance that this one will be a lower scoring contest. Baltimore's key on offense is their ability to run the ball and this favors well for a low scoring game. The Ravens are still very stingy on defense and will limit the Tennessee offense and Vince Young. The Titans need to run the ball to stay in the game and they should chew some clock up when they have possession. Baltimore has gone under in 13 of their last 19 games on grass.
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-5) over New Orleans: 4:15 pm EST I am going to have go with the Steelers again this week after they have disappointed all season, but turnovers have been the issue. Pittsburgh has out gained their opponents in their last 4 games by 163, 262, 74, and 244 yards respectively. With far less than ideal conditions, the Steelers defense should play well as they have allowed just 69.5 rushing yards per game this season. New Orleans have big problems running the ball on grass as they average just 77.5 per game. The Steelers will not turn it over like they have in previous weeks and they should win this game.
Sunday, October 29, 2006:
2 BONES Houston (+3) over Tennessee: 1:00 pm EST. I'll go with Texans to get the win as I feel they are the much better team here. Houston has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs of 3 or less and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. They have also gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as home favorites and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as favorites overall. Tennessee has gone just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC south opponents. Houston should prove the better team.
5 BONES "GAME of the WEEK" Pittsburgh (-9) over Oakland: 4:15 pm EST. I'll drop the points here with the Steelers as they have their backs to the wall and are in desperate need of a win. The should be able to take out their frustrations against perhaps the leagues weakest team in the Raiders. Oakland's only victory came over a 1-5 team. The Raiders have gone 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as home dogs and are a lowly 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games against the AFC. The Steelers have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Raiders. Look for the Steelers defense to stiffen up after last weeks embarrassment to Atlanta where they gave up 41 points.
4 BONES Denver (-2.5) over Indianapolis: 4:15 pm EST. I have to go with the Broncos in this game as they should take advantage of the home field. Denver has won and covered in their last 2 games at home against Indianapolis. The Colts have only played in 2 road games (both at the same stadium against NY teams) and are a different team outside of their home domed stadium. Denver can run the ball and keep the Colts offense off the field. Denver's defense has allowed a measly 7.3 points per game. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record.
Sunday, October 22, 2006:
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Atlanta: 1:00 pm EST.
2 BONES Kansas City (+6) over San Diego: 1:00 pm EST.
5 BONES "GAME of the WEEK" Seattle (-6.5) over Minnesota: 4:15 pm EST.
Sunday, October 15, 2006:
"GAME of the WEEK" 5 BONES Carolina (+3) over Baltimore: 1:00 pm EST. I like the Panthers in a huge spot for them to get a road win against a Baltimore team that will be facing their 3rd physical contest in a row. Carolina is now hitting their stride with 3 wins in a row and offense that has become balanced. The Panthers have gone 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games as dogs and should play the upset role here. Baltimore has one of the worst offenses in the NFL as they are ranked 27th yardage wise. The Ravens record is misleading as they could easily be 2-3 as they escaped against both the Browns and Chargers. Carolina was my pick to go to the Super Bowl and they should look like that team today. WIN
3 BONES Seattle (-3) over St. Louis: 1:00 pm EST. The Seahawks have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game after getting embarrassed by the Bears. Seattle will be more than ready this week as they know they can beat the Rams as they did last season in both meetings SU + ATS. St. Louis has not been impressive on defense this season as they have allowed 335 points per game. The Rams have been winning by not turning the ball over, and that luck should run out today. Part of the Rams success has to attributed to their competition. Their wins have been against Detroit, Arizona, San Francisco, and Green Bay. Which of those teams will make the playoffs? None. I will go with the Seahawks with the much better team. LOSS
3 BONES New Orleans (+3.5) over Philadelphia: 1:00 pm EST. Both teams enter the game with an identical 4-1 record, both SU and ATS. New Orleans has been somewhat a surprise, but with a veteran QB in Brees and weapons on offense in Horn, McAllister, and Bush, their success on offense should be no surprise. Their defense is solid, especially against the pass where they have allowed just 182.2 passing yards per game. The Eagles are in a great spot for a let down after last weeks showcase win against Dallas. The Eagles have gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. I'll take the home team and the points. WIN
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Kansas City: 4:15 pm EST. The Steelers have their backs to the wall and that seems to bode well for them. Pittsburgh is off to a disappointing 1-3 start, but their losses have been to playoff caliber teams in Jacksonville, San Diego, and Cincinnati. The defense is still playing good and should cause a great deal of pressure on Huard. The back-up Chiefs QB has played well so far, but will face his toughest test to date as he has beaten powder puff teams in Arizona and San Francisco. The running game has not looked good this season and the Steelers are usually solid against the rush. Look for Big Ben to get it turned around and the Steelers to release some frustrations at home. WIN
Sunday, October 8, 2006:
5 BONES "GAME of the WEEK" Jacksonville (-6.5) over New York Jets: I like the Jaguars to win big in this contest as they have the far superior team. The Jets are overrated due to their wins over Buffalo and Tennessee, and in part to playing Indy so close last week. Jacksonville is coming off a flat performance against the Redskins and should be focused back here at home where they are 2-0 SU + ATS this season. The Jaguars will apply relentless pressure to Pennington as the Jets two rookie starters on the line will have to deal with the best defense they have seen by far this season. Jacksonville has gone 4-0 SU + ATS in their last 4 contests against the Jets. I like 5-0 today. WIN
4 BONES Dallas (+2) over Philadelphia: The Cowboys should come into the game focused to take on a Philly team that may be playing over their head so far this season. The Cowboys are much healthier than the Eagles and their defense will be the strongest that Philly has faced so far this year. The Eagles have played Houston, Green Bay, and San Francisco (not the best teams in the league). With Westbrook doubtful and an already weak secondary that is even more banged up, look for the Cowboys air attack to take full flight and bring home the win. The Cowboys have won the last 3 meetings ATS and should take this one too. LOSS
2 BONES Pittsburgh (+3.5) over San Diego: The Steelers are about as close to must win as they can get and they responded last season in that situation just fine. The Steelers have gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as road dogs and are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in week 5 of their season. The Steelers have won 16 of their last 19 on the road SU and will be fresh off of their bye week. San Diego has lost the last 4 meetings SU + ATS against the Steelers and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings overall. Look for Pittsburgh's defense to give Rivers all kinds of problems as the Steelers should win this contest. LOSS
Saturday, October 1, 2006:
2 BONES Detroit (+5.5) over St. Louis: This is a game where an upset could occur as the Lions are due for a win. The Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Rams, that includes a 3-0 ATS mark at St. Louis as the dome field advantage is less when a dome team comes in. The Rams have gone 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after forcing four or more turnovers. The Rams have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games being played before and after a road game. With Orlando Pace questionable, I'll go with the road dog to cover here. LOSS
5 BONES "GAME of the WEEK" Chicago (-3) over Seattle: The Bears will be pumped for this game and should be able to dethrone the NFC defending chanps in t the wind city. Seattle's running game has been ineffective to date and without Alexander and having two guards banged up, it's hard seeing the Seattle offense putting up points against a top rate Bears defense. Seattle hasn't fared well on the road in non-division games going just 1-7 ATS in their last 8. Out of the last 10 teams to visit Chicago, only eight of them scored in double digits. I think the Bears will seize home field advantage and catch the Seahawks at a good time. WIN
Monday, September 25, 2006:
5 BONES "Game of the Week" Atlanta (-3) over New Orleans: In an emotionally charged game, the Falcons should still be able to run the ball as they have done so far this season. They have averaged 274 yards a game on the ground so far. That is how you take a crowd out of a game. Keep in mind that was against two of the best defenses in the NFL in Carolina and Tampa Bay. Atlanta's defense has played light's out so far as well giving up just 3 and 6 points. New Orleans' two wins were against Green Bay and Cleveland. They could easily be 0-2 as the Brown's nearly won and the Packers out gained the Saints yardage wise. New Orleans has gone 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in week 3 of the season and that trend should continue Monday night.
Sunday, September 24, 2006:
2 BONES Chicago (-3.5) over Minnesota: The Bears are the better team here and should be able to pull out a road victory in this division game. Chicago's offense has looked sharp the first two weeks and while the Vikings defense has looked good so far, they will miss Erasmus James. The Bears defense is the best in the league as they have allowed only 7 points all season. The Bears are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games against NFC opponents. Minnesota's two wins were by 3 points each and they should have lost last week to Carolina (they scored on a fake FG and were bailed out by Carolina's foolish play calling). I lay the points here. LOSS
3 BONES Baltimore/Cleveland UNDER 34: I am liking a low scoring contest here as the under has gone 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two. Baltimore has scored 27 and 28 points in their first two games, but have managed just 271 and 264 yard on offense in those games. Baltimore's defense has allowed only 3 points per game, giving up just 152 yards per game. The under is 8-2-3 in the last 13 games the Ravens have played against an AFC opponent. The Browns have averaged just 11.9 points per game in their last 7 against the Ravens. They have scored 14 and 17 points in their games this season against defenses far worse than the Ravens. With rain in the forecast, I go with a low scoring game here. WIN
2 BONES Philadelphia/San Francisco OVER 41.5: I am liking a high scoring contest in this one as the Eagles have the best ranked offense and will be led by McNair who looks the best he ever has in his career. Last year he threw for 5 TD passes in just 3 quarters against the 49ers. San Francisco has serious secondary concerns and their offense is improved enough to do their part to help the over. Philadelphia is banged up at corner back and will feel the loss of Kearse being out. The 49ers have gone over in 11 of their last 16 games against NFC opponents. With great weather conditions and good kickers, I expect max points to be scored today. WIN
Sunday, September 17, 2006:
2 BONES Detroit/Chicago UNDER 32: I am going to jump on the under in this game as the under has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Detroit has gone under in 7 of their last 9 gmaes in September and in 6 of their last 8 gmaes overall. Chicago has gone under in 7 of their last 8 games at home and the under is 10-3-1 for the Bears in their last 14 games on grass. Detroit's defense is underrated and held the high powered Seahawks to just 9 points in week 1, while the Bears defense is probably the best in the league. The shut out the Packer on the road in week 1. Hard to see Kitna and the Detroit offense putting up many points or Grossman and the Bears putting up points. LOSS
2 BONES Tampa Bay (+6) over Atlanta: The Buccaneers will come out much better than they did last week as they know the need a strong showing this week. Tampa Bay has gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Atlanta. The Falcons have struggled ATS against NFC south opponents as they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 division games. They have also gone just 2-8-1 ATS in week 2 of the season over the past 11 years. Atlanta won't be able to run the ball as effectively as they did in week 1 as the Bucs still have a defense that was rated #1 yardage wise last season. I like the points in this division match-up. LOSS
3 BONES "Game of the Week" San Francisco 49ers (+3) over St. Louis: I'll go with the home team in this contest as San Francisco looks improved over last years team. Their offense put up nearly 400 yards last week and should be able to score as much against the Rams this week. San Francisco won both meetings SU + ATS last season. The Rams beat Denver last week, but their defense is a little banged up this week. St. Louis is not a good play on grass as they have gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games away from the turf. I'll take San Francisco and the points at home in a close game. WIN
Sunday, September 10, 2006:
3 BONES Arizona (-8) over San Francisco: It is well known that San Francisco is one of the worst teams in the league and it will show today. Arizona is opening a new stadium and will be pumped up. With the addition of James in the backfield, the Cardinal offense is very potent and has the capability of putting up huge numbers in this game against a horrible San Fran defense. Just as horrible for the 49ers is their inept offense. San Francisco lost key players in the off season from a team that was already bad. The 49er's have gone 3-8-1 ATS on the road in openers and the home team has gone 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. Arizona has won the last two meeting SU and ATS. Look for the Cardinals to pound the Niners today. LOSS
2 BONES New York Giants (+3) over Indianapolis: I am going to take the home team tonight with the points in this big match-up on Sunday Night Football. The Giants have taken a step forward from last season and will field a stronger team this year with the additions of Sam Madison and Lavar Arrington on defense. Look for the Giants to make a big play on special teams. The Colts took a small step back in the offseason by losing Edgerian James and will find it tough outside a dome stadium having to play against a very good Giants team. New York has gone 8-2 SU (7-2 ATS) in their last 10 games at home and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home openers. Younger Eli may not get the better stats than Payton, but I think his team will get the win. LOSS
Sunday, February 5, 2006:
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-4) over Seattle: The Steelers are favored as a lower seed, but that is due to their hot streak of rolling over opponents on the road this post season. As a testament to how they have played, they beat the 1, 2, and 3 seed on the road, proving they are the hottest team in football. The Steelers have won 7 games in a row, going 6-1 ATS. Seattle is a good team, but hasn't faced competition like this all season. In the playoffs they beat an injured Panthers team and an over rated Redskins team. Both teams are close statistically, but when it come to strength of schedule, the Steelers get the big edge. Roethlisberger has be brilliant and the Steelers defense should be able to stop Alexander. I'll lay the points and ride the hottest and more physical team. WIN