2005 NFL Top Notch Picks
Sunday, February 5, 2006:
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-4) over Seattle: The Steelers are favored as a lower seed, but that is due to their hot streak of rolling over opponents on the road this post season. As a testament to how they have played, they beat the 1, 2, and 3 seed on the road, proving they are the hottest team in football. The Steelers have won 7 games in a row, going 6-1 ATS. Seattle is a good team, but hasn't faced competition like this all season. In the playoffs they beat an injured Panthers team and an over rated Redskins team. Both teams are close statistically, but when it come to strength of schedule, the Steelers get the big edge. Roethlisberger has be brilliant and the Steelers defense should be able to stop Alexander. I'll lay the points and ride the hottest and more physical team. WIN
Sunday, January 22, 2006:
2 BONES Seattle (-3.5) over Carolina : The Panthers have played great on the road this post season so far, but their toughest task will be today. Carolina's injuries may be too much. Nick Goings will start at tailback for the injured Foster. While goings can pick up 3 or 4 at a time, he lacks the big play capability they had in Foster. Peppers on defense will be playing with an injured shoulder and the offensive line is great for the Seahawks. Hasselback has been the best QB in the NFC this season and should have sucess against the Panthers as his WR corps is the healthiest it has been all season. Seattle is in a great position here and should match up well against the Panthers. I like the Seahawks to get the win and cover here. Teams have gone 0-7 ATS since 1995 in the playoffs after winning 3 in a row on the road if they scored 24 points or more in their previous game. WIN
Sunday, January 15, 2006:
2 BONES Pittsburgh (+10) over Indianapolis: The Colts dominated this match-up earlier this season. The Steelers offense was banged up on the offensive line, Big Ben was just back after missing time, and one of their defensive leaders in Farrior did not play. All 3 of those factors have changed as the Steelers have scored 35.7 points per game in their last 3. The Steeler's defense will incorporated blitzing schemes as they will take a note from what the Chargers did. The Colts may come out rusty and if the Steelers get the lead, clock will run as well as the Steelers. Don't know if they can win, but I surely like the 10 points here. WIN
2 BONES Chicago (-2.5) over Carolina: The Bears have the best defense in the league and that is immensely true when they play at home. Chicago set an NFL record by allowing the fewest points (7.6 a game) at home over the course of a season. One of those games was earlier this season when the Panthers only managed 3 points. That same defense is healthy enough to repeat that 8 sack performance. The Bears have gone 7-1SU at home this season and 6-2 ATS. Grossman gives the Bears more offense than they have had all season to go with the D. Carolina will play tough, but I think the Bears defense will be the difference. LOSS
Saturday, January 14, 2006:.
2 BONES New England/Denver Over 44: This game seems like the best bet of the day in the NFL for a high scoring game. Denver comes in with the 5th ranked offense in the NFL, while the Patriots have the 7th ranked offense. New England's surge into the playoffs has been thanks to almost 30 points a game in their last 5 games. The Patriots have gone over in their last 2 on the road and are averaging a total over 46 on the road this season. Both teams pass the ball really well and the weather should cooperate. With 8 of the last 10 meetings going over, this one seems headed in the same direction. LOSS
Sunday, January 8, 2006:
Carolina (+3) over NY Giants: The Panthers go on the road and that is where they made their hay back when they made it to the Super Bowl a few years ago. They are doing it again as they have gone 5-2 ATS (winning 3 in a row SU + ATS) in their last 7 away from home. The Panthers have allowed just 3.2 yards a rush and 76 yards a game on the ground when playing on the road. That stat leads me to believe that they will shut Barber down enough and force young Eli Manning to make mistakes. The Giants are decimated at linebacker and the Panthers should be able to run Foster for good gains most of the day. WIN
Saturday, January 7, 2006:
New England/Jacksonville Over 37: The weather will be cold, but clear, so the passing game for both teams should be good to go. That bodes well for the offenses as the Patriots will have to throw the ball often and should be effective with the leading yardage passer in the NFL in Brady. The Jaguars should be able to throw as well too with wide outs that have a huge height advantage over the Patriots secondary. Jacksonville has gone over in 6 of their 8 games on the road this season, where they have allowed 18 points per game and scored over 23 points per game. The Patriots have scored over 23 a game and allowed over 21 per game this season. Jacksonville has gone over in 4 of their last 5 games and the Patriots have gone over in 3 of their last 4. LOSS
Sunday, January 1, 2006:
New England (-5) over Miami: The Patriots are a team that is always prepared well, no matter if they have nothing to play for. They should be able to handle the Dolphins at home today where the temperature will be around the freezing mark. Miami has had their troubles with the Patriots as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. New England has won 4 in a row ATS and are looking to keep their momentum going into the playoffs. The Patriots have given up just 9.3 points per game in their last 3 contests. This is due to how stout they have been against the run in those games allowing an average of just 28 yards. Miami has played well, but the Patriots should make them one dimensional in this game and get the home win. LOSS
Atlanta (+4) over Carolina: The Falcons are bitter that they will miss the playoffs and will bring their attitude to the Pathers. Atlanta can play spoiler and keep their rivals out of the playoffs, which would be a nice end to their disappointing season. Carolina has struggled in Atlanta as they have gone 1-9 SU all time in the Georgia Dome and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Carolina is in a must win situation, but their inconstant play may cost them the division today. Atlanta still has the #1 rushing offense in the NFL and will look for revenge of their loss to Carolina a few weeks ago. Atlanta will look to have a winning season with a win today and should put fourth a strong enough effort to get the cover today. LOSS
Pittsburgh (-16.5) over Detroit: The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and are banged up coming into Pittsburgh. The Steelers are playing their best football of the season as they have won 3 games in a row SU + ATS. In those games, the Steelers have averaged 22.7 points more per game than their opponents. Also in those 3 games, they allowed an average of 4 points, including last weeks shutout of the Browns. Over the last 3 games for both teams, Pittsburgh has given up just 210 yards per game, while Detroit has managed just 263 yards per game. Pittsburgh should dominate in a game they must win to get into the playoffs. LOSS
Saturday, December 31, 2005:
Oakland (+8.5) over New York Giants: The Raiders have had a horrible season, but they can end it nicely with a win today against the banged up Giants. New York has clinched a playoff spot and will be playing without the 3 line backers that started the season for them. The will also be without Shockey, who impacts the running game as much as the pass. The Giants are 25th against the pass and Kerry Collins should be fired up to torch his old team through the air. Oakland pass blocked well against Denver and Collins should have enough time to get the ball to his playmakers. Don't know it the Raiders can win, but they should keep it close enough to cover. LOSS
Sunday, December 25, 2005:
Green Bay (+7.5) over Chicago: The Packers were trounced on Monday by the Ravens and the betting public have pounded the Bears, moving the line up this high. The Packers are at home and will put forth a full effort to give their fans a Christmas gift in this heated rivalry. Chicago has caught the worst of the last 10 meetings as they have won just 2 of those ATS. The Packers have outscored opponents by 6 points a game on average at home despite their terrible record. The Bears have a great defense, but they are banged up and may not have their best game today. With all the talk of Farve being washed up, I have a feeling he might prove everyone wrong today. WIN
Saturday, December 24, 2005:
Kansas City (+2) over San Diego: The Chargers are in the public spotlight due to their win over the Colts. The Chiefs are excellent in this position at home and should be able to pull of the upset win. KC has won 17 games in a row at home in December and 6 in a row against the Chargers in December. Kansas City has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home, winning and covering in 4 straight (3 of them good teams in Washington, New England, and Denver). The last 4 games between these two were decided by 1 score and any points are a bonus. With a cold and rainy day expected, I like the Chief's running attack over the Chargers with a banged up LT. WIN
Houston (+6.5) over Jacksonville: The Jaguars may be headed for the playoffs, but you wouldn't know by how they have played lately. The have won 4 of their last 5 games SU, but all their wins were by 1 score. What makes it less impressive is that they were over teams that are bad (San Francisco, Arizona, Cleveland, and Tennessee). Houston has had a miserable season, but they are still playing hard and have won 3 in a row ATS, only allowing 68.3 yard on the ground. Houston has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two teams ATS, and have taken 3 straight ATS at home. I like the Texans to play strong today. LOSS
New Orleans (-2.5) over Detroit: The Lions are in disarray and may be the most un efficient team in football. It looks like they have given up on winning any more games this season. The Lions have gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall and only manage 11 points per game on the road, where they rush for an average of just 80 yards. New Orleans is still playing hard and should play well in the Alamo dome. The Saints have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams ATS. Detroit has been decimated this season by injuries and will return Harrington to start this week. Hard to see the Lions having any faith that this guy could lead them to a win. LOSS
Washington (-3) over New York Giants: The Redskins will be seeking revenge this week for the 36-0 loss they suffered to the Giants in New York earlier this season. The Redskins trounced the Cowboys at home last week and will host this game playing their best football of the season. Washington has the 7th ranked defense in the NFL, so they should be able to limit a good Giants offense. Brunell plays solid at QB and Portis should be effective on the ground. The Redskins have won 3 in a row SU and their previous 3 losses were all by 1 score. I have to side with the hot team at home in this situation. WIN
Arizona (-1) over Philadelphia: The Cardinals are still playing hard this season, while on the other side, the Eagles seem to have given up and won't play as hard. Philadelphia has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road and they have only scored 13.3 points per game in their last 3 games. The Cards have lost Kurt Warner, but they have an adequate back up in McCown to lead their #1 ranked pass offense. Arizona's defense is not great by any means, but they should be good enough at home to help the Cardinals get the win. The Cardinals have been disappointing all season, but I think they give their fans a Christmas gift by beating the Eagles. WIN
Monday, December 19, 2005:
Green Bay (+3.5) over Baltimore: The Packers may have a horrible record, but that is not a refection of how they have played in games as they have lost by 3 or fewer points 5 times out of the 10 losses. The Packers have the best pass defense in the NFL and the Ravens have the 26th ranked offense in the NFL. Baltimore will have to run and Jamal Lewis has a sore hand that will limit his carries. The Packers have out gained opponents in 9 of their last 10 games and excel in December as they have gone 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20. Baltimore has gone 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings and their defense is not as good as past years as Ray Lewis is out and they allow 19.5 points per game. LOSS
Sunday, December 18, 2005:
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Minnesota: The Vikings have won 6 in a row but that may be a farce as far as how good of a team they are. Only one of the 6 games was against a quality opponent and that was in New York against the Giants. The other wins were twice against Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Green Bay (all teams with losing records). Their wins have come mostly due to special teams and defensive touchdowns. The Steelers are sound in this area and will control the game by running the ball against a weak Vikings defense. Pittsburgh ran the ball at will against the Bears and should repeat the same against the Vikings as they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road. WIN
San Diego (+7.5) over Indianapolis: The Colts would like to remain undefeated, but they are not going to sacrifice their health to do it. Two defensive starters will be held out and Reggie Wayne will most likely be limited on snaps. The Colt's horse of a tailback James will also most likely be limited on carries as his load has been heavy so far this season. San Diego is desperate and despite their let down to the Dolphins last week, they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. The Chargers come into this game in a must win mode and the situation is similar to when they came here last season as 7 point dogs and got the cover. The Chargers offense is one of the best in the league and should score enough to get the cover. WIN
Tennessee (+7.5) over Seattle: The trip east for Seattle is usually a tough one and the Titans are poised to give them all they can handle today. The Seahawks may be looking ahead to next weeks match up with the Colts and have a letdown today. Tennessee has won the last two meetings ATS and has won their last 2 games at home where they have been competitive all season. When the Titans have lost this season, the majority of the time it has been by just 1 score. Seattle has gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the AFC South, but have gone just 4-6 ATS. Seattle is susceptible to the pass and McNair should give the Seahawks all they can handle. This game seems similar to when the Seahawks barely won at San Francisco a few weeks ago. WIN
Cincinnati (-8) over Detroit: The Bengals should be able to wrap up a division title today as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bengals have won 3 in a row ATS and have won 3 meetings in a row SU and ATS when these two meet in Detroit (the Lions were favorites in all 3 games). In fact the Bengals have owned this series ATS as they are a solid 8-2 in the last 10. Cincinnati survived a scare last week against the Browns and shouldn't have their guard down today. Detroit has gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 at home and have lost 4 games in a row SU, going 2-4 ATS in their last 6 overall. With some Detroit fans planning to protest the management of Detroit by cheering for the Bengals, it's hard to see the Lions being able to overcome the odds today. WIN
Dallas (+3) over Washington: The Cowboys are brimming with confidence and could put the nail in the coffin of their hated rival with a win today. A win would also bring the Cowboys closer to the playoffs as well. Dallas has owned this series lately as they have gone 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 meetings. The Cowboys will look to avenge a loss to the Skins at home in the Monday night game they had a lapse in at the end of the game. Dallas is strong enough against the run to limit Portis. Washington is banged up on defense and should have trouble stopping a Dallas offense that has been potent lately. Since that win early in the season against the Cowboys, Washington has only beat one quality team. Hard to see them doing it today. LOSS
Saturday, December 17, 2005:
Kansas City (+3) over New York Giants: The Giants have lost 2 games in a row and ATS to the AFC west and should struggle in this one as they have key injuries. Eli Manning was rushed last week due to a pass rush and threw 3 interceptions. The Chiefs will try to do the same as the Giants are missing their two starting tackles on the offensive line. The Giants will also be without one of their defensive leaders at middle linebacker as Pierce is also out of the game. Kansas City has gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games and were a missed field goal from winning on the road at Dallas last week. The Chiefs have 9 sacks in their last 3 games and should put enough pressure to get the better of the young Manning. LOSS
Monday, December 12, 2005:
New Orleans/Atlanta Under 44.5: The Saints and Falcons meet in a game where the under seems to be the best bet for the evening. In the last 10 meetings between the two, the total was set around the 44 point mark and 7 of those games went under. At that time the Saints had a much better offense, but this season they are averaging just 15 points per game. In fact both teams have average totals for their games under 44 points. The Saints have gone under in 3 of their last 4 in December and in 4 of their last 6 overall. Since 1997, the under is 24-3 for marginal winning teams (50% - 60%) coming off a road loss, playing losing teams at home where the total is between 42.5 and 49. The Saint's only chance at winning is limiting the Falcons and this should be a game where the scoring should be stemed. LOSS
Sunday, December 11, 2005:
Carolina (-5.5) over Tampa Bay: The Panthers have been on a tear lately as they have gone 8-1 SU in their last 9 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They have been especially great on defense as they have allowed just 9.3 points per game in their last 3 and have the 4th ranked defense in the NFL (2nd against the run). With the return of Rucker and Peppers to the defense, their pass rush should overwhelm the young QB Simms into mistakes and sacks. Tampa Bay was skunked by Carolina in their first meeting by 20 points. In fact, the Panthers have taken 5 straight meeting in this series SU + ATS and are a combined 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. It's hard to see Tampa's 24th ranked offense putting up enough points to cover on the road today. LOSS
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Chicago: This line opened at 5.5 points, but has moved for good reason. The Steelers will play with their backs to the wall and will be angry. Coach Cower knows how to prepare his team when they are favored at home after an upset loss to a division rival as the Steelers have gone 10-1 ATS in that situation. Both of the Bears starting safeties are out for this game and despite Big Bens sore thumb, the offense cranked out production last week and should take advantage of the banged up secondary. Over the last 2 seasons the Steelers are 6-0 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game. Since 1983, good teams (60% to 70% winning %) have gone 5-25 ATS after 2 or more wins against a marginal winning team (50% to 60% wins), at least 8 games into the season. The Bears should struggle offensively and they have gone 5-15 ATS the past 3 season when they score 14 or less points a game. WIN
Kansas City (+3) over Dallas: The Chiefs are in desperation mode and are playing their their best football of the season as they have gone 3-0 SU + ATS in their last 3 games, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points. The rushing attack has been the key as Larry Johnson has scored 5 TDs and ran for an average of 156 yards a game in their 3 game streak. Two of Dallas' best defenders are out as Aaron Glenn and Anthony Henry will weaken a strong secondary. Dallas has been shakey at best on offense lately and the Chief's defense has been steadily improving. Dallas has lost 2 in a row SU and ATS. Dallas has been slipping up lately against the run and in the air. Gotta like the AFC Chiefs and 3 points in this contest. PUSH
Sunday, December 4, 2005:
Atlanta (+3) over Carolina: With this divisional game meaning so much to the playoff hopes of these teams, both will bring their best game today. I happen to think in this situation the Falcons game will be better. Carolina struggled last week to get a win at weak Buffalo. The Panthers have had struggles running the ball all season, which makes them one dimensional on offense. Michael Vick has owned the Panthers and should again today. The Falcons have gone 5-0 when Vick leads them against the Panthers, including a 4-0-1 ATS record. Atlanta has gone 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings together, with the only loss coming when Vick was out. Atlanta is coming into the game with a little extra rest thanks to the Thanksgiving day game. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 on the road and should convert another one today. LOSS
Green Bay/Chicago Under 30.5: In a situation where the temperature will feel like 15 degrees, the offenses will most likely try to pound out the ball on the ground. The Bears strong defense should be able to stop the Packers attack that is suffering with a 4th string RB and banged up offensive line. Chicago has gone under in their last 4 December games. The Bears only average 16.5 points a game this this season and have allowed just 8.5 points a game at home. Chicago has made the under 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. Green Bay has gone under in 5 of their last 6 games. Besides putting up 33 points in the dome against Atlanta, in the last 5 weeks the Packers have scored 14,17, 10, and 14 points. Both teams should struggle to score in this rivalry game where the total going under seems like one of the best plays of the week. WIN
Minnesota (-2.5) over Detroit: The Lions are a team in disarray as they fired their head coach and had their players slander each other and the front office in the media. With all the happenings in Detroit, it's hard to see the Lions competing in this game, even if Garcia is starting. Detroit has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and are just 1-3 ATS in division games this season. Minnesota is playing their best ball of the season as they have won 4 games in a row SU and ATS. Brad Johnson has played solid and has not made the mistakes that cost teams games. Minnesota's defense is improving with each week as they have allowed just 16.7 points per game in their last 3. Minnesota has won 7 games in a row over Detroit and that should be headed towards 8 in this contest. The line for this game was set before the bickering in Detroit. WIN
Monday, November 28, 2005:
Pittsburgh/Indianapolis Under 47: The Steelers have been great on Monday night football and should dictate a pace that will keep the scoring down. Pittsburgh has given up just 15.7 points per game in their last 3 and has allowed just 13.6 points per game on the road this season. Ben Roethlisberger should be rusty and the Steelers offense should struggle to put up a high amount of points. Indianapolis has not seen a defense this good since the first two games of the season when they scored an average of just 17 points against the Ravens and the Jaguars. With their high scoring offense in the spotlight, it seems the line makers got carried away and put the number for the total on this game too high. WIN
Sunday, November 27, 2005:
Chicago/Tampa Bay Under 32: This game has all the makings of a low scoring rough and tough contest as two of the best defenses this season will be featured. Chicago ranks 1st in the NFL on defense as they have given up just 252.1 yards a game this season. Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in defense as they have given up just 272 yards a game. This game also feature two of the worst offenses as the Bears rank 28th and the Bucs rank 21st. Chicago has averaged a total of 27 points in their games this season, while the Bucs have averaged 28.4. With two very young QBs facing strong defenses, the scoring should be limited in this one. WIN
Arizona (+3.5) over Jacksonville: The Cardinals should be primed to play one of their games of the year as their offense is close to full strength as they were in the beginning of the season. Warner has played well at QB in this pass happy offense that saw the return of Boldin last week as the Cardinals were able to put up points. Arizona throws for nearly 300 yards a game at home and are the 3rd ranked pass defense in the NFL. Jacksonville has gone just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games and has not played particularly well on the road this season. Jacksonville has a good pass defense, but with two safeties out, it may be difficult to stop a desperate Cardinals team. LOSS
Seattle (-4.5) over New York Giants: The Seahawks could clinch their division title this weekend and I don't think they will let the chance slip by. Seattle has been clutch at home as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and have outscored opponents by an average of 15 points a game at home. Seattle has the top ranked offense in the NFL and should score plenty against the 23 ranked defense of the Giants. The Giants haven't beat a quality team on the road so far this season and will be playing their first game on turf. Seattle has gone 2-0-1 ATS in their last 3 meetings. The Seahawks have only allowed 3 rushing TD's all season and I don't think Manning is matured enough to beat the Seahawks defense in the air enough to cover. LOSS
New Orleans/New York Jets Under 37: These lowly teams battle in a game that will feature two inept offensive football teams. New Orleans has gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall and have averaged a measily 14.3 points per game on the road this season. Aaron Brooks has struggled all season with out Duece on the ground to offset his passing skills. The Jets rank dead last in the league in offense as they have managed just 237 yards per game this season. In their last 3 games, the Jets have managed to average just 9.7 points per game and with Brooks Bollinger starting, we don't see how that will improve. Both of these defenses are better than they have played so far and should stop the scoring enough for this one to go under. LOSS
Thursday, November 24, 2005:
Denver/Dallas Under 42: Both of these teams have played defense when it has been important this season and they should limit the offenses enough today to keep this one under the total. Devner has allowed just 12.7 points per game the last 3 games, while Dallas' has allowed just 13.3. Dallas has gone under in 4 of their last 5 at home where they are allowing just 11.4 points per game on the season. Since 1997, the under is 37-10 when the first half total line is set between 18 and 21 and the teams are in certain situations. The situation for Dallas is a home win by 10 or more and for Denver it is coming off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Both teams have the ability to put points on the board, but I think the defenses are playing too well to allow a shoot out. LOSS
Sunday, November 20, 2005:
Indianapolis (-5) over Cincinnati: This line started at 4 points and has ballooned up to 5 to 5.5 at some books. This is for good reason as the Colts should win and cover over an overrated Bengals team. Cincy has not played tough opponents this season and will run into the hottest team this season. The weather shouldn't be an issue as their is no precipitation forecasted for Sunday. Indy has gone 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they gain around the same amount of yards as their opponents, which should be the case today. Indy has won 5 straight games ATS on the road, while the Bengals have lost 3 of their last 4 ATS at home. Indy is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall and should improve upon that mark today. WIN
Indianapolis/Cincinnati Over 47.5: These two teams feature two of the best offenses in the league and with weather not being that bad, we like them to showcase today. The Bengals have scored a nice 23.3 points per game this season and the Colts are ranked second in the league in yard gained this season. The Colts have gone over in 4 straight games and the over is 11-0 the past 2 seasons in games which both them and their opponents score 20+ points in a game (an outcome that is most likely in this contest). Over the past 3 seasons the over has gone 10-1 for the Colts when they play teams that can pass the ball well (that average 235 or more passing yards per game). We like a shoot out today. WIN
N.Y. Jets (+14) over Denver: These two teams are on the opposite spectrum of public opinion the past two weeks and this favors well betting on the dog. The Jets have won 2 of the last 3 meetings ATS with Denver. The Jet's defense is better than they have played so far this season and they are disciplined enough penalty wise to stay close enough to the Broncos. Denver is playing a trap game between a win over their biggest rival in Oakland and a Thursday game coming up this week. The Jets have struggled in the air, but will face a suspect Broncos pass defense that is allowing 247 yards a game. Denver may pull off the victory, but we think a let down is likely, thus letting the Jets cover the spread. LOSS
Sunday, November 13, 2005:
Baltimore/Jacksonville Under 33.5: These teams will be playing a tough close contest due to their solid defenses and less than impressive offenses. Baltimore's defense ranks 9th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. Jacksonville ranks 8th in points allowed and 6th in yards allowed. Jacksonville should struggle to put up a good deal of points with Fred Taylor out. Even without Lewis and Reed, Baltimore's defense has still been stingy. The Ravens have gone under in 6 of their last 8 overall and have one of the worst offenses in the league as they average just 12.1 points per game. Boller will replace Wright as the starting QB for the Ravens, but Boller may be worse than Wright. Jacksonville hasn't put up a 30 spot on the scoreboard in a long time and they most likely won't today. WIN
Chicago (-13) over San Franciso: The 49er's may be looking for the #1 pick in the draft again next season as they are easily one of the worst teams in the NFL. San Francisco has gone just 1-5 ATS the past 3 seasons when playing a winning team in the second half of the season and have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bears have been impressive, especially on defense as they rank up with the best in the league. With an improving offense as well, the Bears should cover this number against a Niners team that is struggling. In road games this season, the Niners have average a score of 11.3 while giving up 41.7. With that wide margin of defeat, a trip to the windy city won't help matters. LOSS
Cleveland (+8) over Pittsburgh: The Steelers take a step down in their dominance in this match up with Charlie Batch as their QB as the offense had major trouble last week in Green Bay. Cleveland's defense has played well enough on the road this season (allowing 18 points per game) to stay in this one. The Browns have the edge at the QB postition and is improving on offense. Cleveland continues to get slighted by the line makers as they have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 overall. The Steelers have lost 3 in a row ATS at home and will be trying to cover the second highest spread in this rivalry over the last 9 meetings between the two teams. The Steelers have the better team, but with this being a rivalry game, eight points seem to good to pass up. LOSS
Sunday, November 6, 2005:
Carolina/Tampa Bay Under 37: These teams will be playing a tough close contest for control in their division. In this type of contest, we think these teams will be taking a conservative approach, which usually means good chances for the under. Carolina's defense seems to improve each week and should be able to limit the weak Tampa offense with their inexperienced QB in Simms. Tampa bolsters the 1st ranked defense in the league by giving up just 12.4 points per game (only 9.7 at home). This type of defense has led the under to a nice 6-1 mark in their last 7 games. When these teams meet, usually the under takes the cash as it has won in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two. Looks like a good shot for it to go under as well today. LOSS
Cincinnati (-3) over Baltimore: The Ravens are coming off a short week in which they lost a tough physical battle with the Steelers by 1 points. With that performance it is fresh in the publics mind that they can compete without Lewis and Reed on defense. The Bengals and their 4th ranked offense have the weapons to take advantage of the situation with their receivers back at full strength. Baltimore should find it hard to score again this week with their pitiful offense that scores just 12 points a game. Cincinnati is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 on the road and should have confidence that they can take out the Ravens on the road, just like they did last season when the Ravens were better and the Bengals were worse. WIN
Arizona (+4.5) over Seattle: The Seahawks each year seem to go into a slump when you think they are a contending team. This is a good spot for a slump to begin as they are coming off a bye week and they won't be sharp to start the contest. The Seahawks have been less than impressive on the road (1-3 ATS in their last 4), while the Cardinals always seem to play better at home where they have won 2 of their last 3 contests SU. Arizona will be looking for revenge for the thumping they took in Seattle back in September and will have who I feel is the better QB in Warner back. Dallas stuffed the box to stop Seattle from running the ball and the Cards should do the same. With the injuries to the Seahawk WRs, we like the Cards to take the cash in this one. LOSS
Sunday, October 30, 2005:
Green Bay (+10) over Cincinnati: The Bengals have been one of the best teams record wise in the league this season, but the competition in their wins has not been great. They will most likely win today, but it should be close to their win over the winless Texans at home when they couldn't cover. The Bengals are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and have given up 24.3 points per game in their last 3 games. Green Bay has it's injury issues on offense, but they have still managed an average of 33 points per game in their last 3. The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cincy and have gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 overall. Teams playing against a team that allowed 200+ rushing yards the previous game while they gained less than 99 rush yards a game in their last 2 games has gone 26-2 over the last 10 seasons. WIN
Detroit (-3) over Chicago: These teams have identical records and will battle in a game where the advantage should go to the home team. The Bears have not played on turf yet this season and will be disadvantaged to a quicker Lions team. Detroit should take advantage of the home field as they are 3-0 ATS this season at home and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 on turf. Detroit has won 4 games in a row ATS and should be able to have a more potent attack with Garcia taking the snaps. Chicago's inability to move the ball consistently will cost them in this game as Detroit should be able to get the better field position. Detroit's opportunistic defense should take the ball away enough to get the victory and the cover. The Lions have won the last 3 meetings between these two in Detroit. LOSS
New Orleans (-2.5) over Miami: The Dolphins should find trouble once again on the road as they have all season so far going 0-3 ATS. Away from home the fins have managed just 11.3 points per game while rushing for an average of 81 yards a contest. Injuries to the Dolphin's secondary should allow the Saint's to move the ball fairly easy as the run support should be weak for Miami. We expect Aaron Brooks to get on track this season finally and have a good game. Miami's offensive line has been pouros all season and this should cost them again in today's game. The Saints have gone 3-0 ATS in their home game so far this season, and with this one actually being played in their home state, we like the Saints to show up big time and get the win. LOSS
Sunday, October 23, 2005:
San Diego (+4) over Philadelphia: The Chargers are a better team than their 3-3 record would indicate and should be able to stay within 3 or pull off the upset today. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons off of wins over division rivals and they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road. The Chargers rank 3rd on defense against the rush. This is bad news for an Eagles team that ranks last in the NFL rushing the ball. San Diego is good enough against the pass to keep the Eagles at bay, while Tomlinson should be able to have another big day against a susceptible Eagles rush defense. The AFC has the best teams in the NFL and that should become evident in this event today. WIN
Detroit/Cleveland Under 34.5: The weather in Cleveland should be cold and rainy on Sunday and that will aid a game that already has key factors pointing to the under. The Lions are ranked 30th in the league offensively and are having QB issues. The Browns defense has been solid enough to limit them in this outdoor environment where the Lions have gone under in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. The Browns have had problems of their own scoring as they have averaged just 9.7 points per game in their last 3 and rank a dismal 27th offensively. Cleveland has gone under in 4 of their last 5 overall and this game should continue that trend. The under has gone 34-4 since 1997 when the first half total is 17.5 or less and the two teams are poor (out gained by 40 to 100 yards per game). WIN
Baltimore/Chicago Under 31: At first glance this total seems to be a very low number, but as you dig deep into the stats, it becomes apparent that this game has a great chance to go under the total. Both teams have great defenses, as the Bears are ranked 3rd in the league and the Ravens are ranked 2nd. On the other side of the ball, the offenses are horrid, as the Bears rank 28th and the Ravens rank 21st. Chicago has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games overall and should find it hard to score with their rookie QB. Baltimore has gone under in 8 of their last 10 on the road and in 4 of their last 5 overall (the over was the game they had may T.O.s and penalties in Detroit). Four of the last five meetings between these two have gone under and we like this one too as well. WIN
Sunday, October 16, 2005:
Carolina (+1) over Detroit: The Panthers are a team most likely headed to the playoffs and know this is a must win going into their bye week. The Panthers have been hot ATS as they have gone 8-4-1 in their last 13 contests. Their defense hasn't played up to expectations yet, but should this week against the Lions whom have a very banged up recieving core. The Panthers have been the best team in the red zone so far this season and should have many opportunities to cash in this week. Detroit is ranked 28th in the league on offense and have not played as well as their record shows. Last week the Lions win was misleading as the Ravens were penalized 21 times and had 2 players ejected to aid in Detroit's easy win. WIN
New York Giants/Dallas Over 47: The Cowboys and Giants are teams that have traditionally played tough games, but as of recent history, this looks like it should go over the total as 4 of the last 6 meetings have. The Giants have the best ranked offense in the league scoring 34 points per game and going over in 3 of their last 4 games. The defense has given up 24.5 points per game and a hot Bledsoe and Cowboys offense should take advantage of it. The Cowboys are overated defensively as exposed in San Francisco, allowing them to score 31. Dallas has averaged 24.2 points per game this season and have improved over time. We like the prospects of this one being a shoot out. LOSS
Houston/Seattle Over 45.5: The Texans have been disappointing on offense so far this season, but this looks like the game in which they get that turned around. The have improved each week and should be able to put up enough points to help this one over the total. Seattle has gone over in 4 of their 5 games this season, most in part to being ranked 1st in the league on offense. The Seahawks have gone over in all 7 games played the last two seasons when playing a team with a losing record and in 10 of 12 games as 3.5 to 9.5 point favorites the past 2 seasons. In the month of October, Seattle has gone over the total in their last 6 games. WIN
Sunday, October 9, 2005:
Chicago/Cleveland Under 36: The Bears and Browns should be playing in cold conditions and the offense should struggle. Both head coaches are former successful defensive coordinators and should be able to shut down the other team. The under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings. Chicago has gone under in 5 of their last 7 overall and the Browns have gone under in 3 of their last 4 at home. The Browns are averaging a total of 15 ppg and allowing just 13 ppg (28 total). The Bears are miserable on offense as Orton has struggled and should again today. WIN
Baltimore (+2) over Detroit: The Ravens won their first game last week against the Jets and should be able to carry that momentum into Detroit and knock off the Lions. Baltimore has won the last 3 meeting between the two ATS and has a better team overall than the Lions. Detroit has been good on defense this season, but Harrington's play at QB has not. Detroit has averaged just 12 ppg so far this season. The Lions played a close game with Tampa, but that might have been skewed due to a 7-yard drive for a TD to make it closer than it was. Baltimore is 11-4 ATS since 1992 when playing a team that has had a losing record the last 3 seasons. LOSS
Washington (+7) over Denver: This Skins are undefeated by pulling off 3 close wins so far this season. Even if they were close, their confidence is high and they should keep this one close. They have gone 4-1 ATS agaisnst the Broncos since the 1992 season. Also since 1992, the Skins are 24-7 ATS on their road playing as dogs of 3.5 to 7 points. When the Broncos have won 3-4 thier last 4 games, Shanahan has not prepared well the next game. In that situation since being the Broncos coach, he has gone just 11-22 ATS in their next game. Washington's defense allows just 12.3 ppg and should be able to keep the Broncos off the board enough to give themselves a chance to win. WIN
Monday, October 3, 2005:
Green Bay (+8) over Carolina: The Packers are more desperate for the win here and should be able to keep this one within one score. Brett Farve thrives on Monday night's and will be primed to stay competitive tonight. Brett has also been solid against the Panthers as he is 4-1 in his career. The Packer's have still been able to move the ball this season and Green is due for a breakout game. The Panthers have not convinced me they are a playoff team yet as they have losses to Miami and New Orleans. There defense seems overrated as they have allowed 300 ypg and 20 ppg this season. Without Kris Jenkins inside, the Green Bay injuries on the OL should be neutralized. WIN: The Packers lose by just 3 as they almost ride Farve for the win.
Sunday, October 2, 2005:
San Diego/New England Over 47.5: These teams meet in a game where the offenses should take precedence over the defensive play. The Chargers and L.T. showed how potent their offense can be last week and should be able to take advantage of a weak secondary this week. Without Harrison, the Patriots will be susceptible to both the run and the pass. The Pats should be able to move the ball as well as Brady looks strong and took apart a better Steelers defense. The Chargers have gone over in 2 of their 3 games this season as their defense is allowing over 350 ypg. These teams have gone over in 4 of their last 5 games they have played against each other and we think that trend will continue today. WIN: This one totals out to 58 points as the Chargers blast the Pats.
Indianapolis/Tennessee Over 45.5: These teams play in another game that should go over this weekend as well. Manning is set to break lose this week as he has put up stout numbers against the Titans in his career (including the last 3 meetings that have gone over the total). The Colts have scored just 43 points all season in 3 games, but we think they will score that total in this one today. The Titans defense is a shell of what it has been in former years and the Colts veteran offense should take advantage of it today. Tennessee has been able to move the ball and score this season. Despite the Colts play on defense so far this season, we think today they will be exposed. LOSS: This one falls under the total by 4.5 points for a close loss.
Oakland (-3) over Dallas: The Raiders are the more desperate team here as they will seek out their first win of the season. Their last loss to Philly should inspire them to play well tonight. We like Moss to have a breakout game as he has 10 TD's in his career against the Cowboys. Collins is also solid against the Boys as he is 8-3 in his career. Dallas' DB's have been burned many times this season and it should happen today as well. Bledsoe is a career 0-3 against the Raiders and the Oakland defense should play well enough to give them their first win of the season today. The Cowboys sneaked out a win against the poor 49er's last week, but will face a much tougher task today. WIN: The Raiders lead throughout and pick up the W with a 6 point win.