2004 NFL Top Notch Picks

More Results from the 2004 NFL Football Season

Season Record:  36-36-3

Games of the week:  11-8

Sunday, February 6, 2005:

  Philadelphia (+7.5) over New England:  The Patriots are big favorites based on factors that have been blown up by the media.  The Patriots two Super Bowl wins in the past three years have been by no more than 3 points each.  One of those wins was against a heavily favored Rams team.  The Pats won that game SU and the Eagles are perched in that position to do the same thing.  Donovan McNabb should be the factor that keeps the Eagles 7th ranked passing attack potent enough to score points against the middle of the pack ranked Patriots secondary.  Philadelphia's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as they are strong against the pass and much improved against the run than they were earlier this season.  Win:  The Eagles come within 3 points of winning this close game, but they do cover the spread to make us 2-0 in Super Bowls!

Sunday, January 23, 2004:

  Pittsburgh (+3) over New England:  We are still finding it hard to believe that the Steelers would be getting points at home with a 15-1 record this season (9-0 at home).  The Steelers beat the Patriots earlier this season to give New England one of their 2 losses.  The other was in Miami, a place where the Steelers won at this season.  New England's secondary is still weak and the Steelers matchup good all around with the Patriots.  Pittsburgh has gone 5-1 ATS as dogs this season, including 2-0 as home dogs.  Teams have gone 0-4 ATS since 1985 as 3->6.5 point road favorites in a playoff game after winning SU + ATS at home in the previous week.   We like that trend to continue as the Steelers should be able to tough out a win today.  Loss:  Steeler's turn it over too much in this game.

Pittsburgh/New England Under 35:  The total has dropped for this game all week due to the in climate weather and it should help the under.  The Steelers and Patriots feature two of the NFL's best defenses and both like to control the clock running the football.  The Steelers have gone under in 4 of their last 5 games at home and in 7 of their last 10 overall.  If not for an interception return for a touchdown and a punt return TD, last weeks game would have as well.  The Patriots can put points on the board, but will be facing the toughest defense they have all season.  Points will be at a premium this game and we like the chances of this one falling short of the 35 mark.  Loss:  Steeler's turn overs add to easy points for the Patriots.

Sunday, January 16, 2004:

Minnesota (+8.5) over Philadelphia:  The Vikings played great football last weekend and should be able to play good enough football this weekend to stay close to the Eagles.  T. Owens was considered an MVP candidate and we think it will be difficult for the Eagle to score a lot without him.  The Eagles have dropped 4 games in a row ATS in January.  Teams have gone just 2-10 ATS as favorites in conference games of 7->9.5 after losing two straight games since last season.  Minnesota has gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as dogs.  Teams have gone 10-2 ATS since last season on the road after winning in a playoff game.  Teams are also 9-2 ATS since last season as road dogs in conference games after winning SU + going under on the road.  We like the Vikings to keep it close today.  Loss:  Another near win for us as this one loses by just 4.5 points as the Vikings miss several opportunities to score.

Saturday, January 15, 2004:

  New York/Pittsburgh  Under 35.5:  These teams met not too long ago and the total was set at 34.5, and that game went under by 11.5 points.  So this game they raise the total by 1 to 35.5?  We don't think this makes sense, especially since 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two have gone under.  The Jets have gone under in 4 of their last 5 playoff games and in 6 of their last 8 on the road.  The Jets have also gone under in 16 of their last 17 as road dogs after winning ATS + going under.  The Steelers have gone under in 4 straight at home and in 7 of their last 9 after winning 5 straight games.  Teams have gone under in 7 of the 8 games since last season as favorites of 7->9.5 on grass after winning ATS + going over.  Both teams love to run the ball and that mean the clock runs often.  We'll take our chances that this one will fall under the total.  Loss:  If not for OT this game would have went under.

Sunday, January 9, 2004:

  Minnesota/Green Bay Over 49:  These teams blew past the total in their previous two meetings.  In fact the over has won in the teams past 9 meetings.  Both defenses are porous and their offenses are good.  Minnesota has gone over in 12 of their last 15 on the road after 3 losses ATS and teams have gone over in 13 of the 14 games this season as road dogs of 3->6.5 after 3 losses ATS.  Green Bay has gone over in 10 of their last 12 games overall and in 7 of their last 8 playoff games after 2 wins ATS.  The Packers have averaged a total of 49 points in their games this season and the Vikings have averaged 52.  The lines makers envisioned harsh conditions for this game when making the total line.  Although the temperature will be below freezing, only a light wind and no precipitation is in the forecast.  Loss:  Bad luck week ends with a 1 point loss again as two chip shot field goals were missed in this contest.

Saturday, January 8, 2004:

San Diego (-6.5) over New York Jets:  The Chargers were the surprise team of the year and they should make it out of the first round of the playoff convincingly as they take on a struggling Jets team that finished the season just 5-6.  The Chargers have gone 14-1-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 5-0-1 ATS as favorites this season, and 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 as favorites after 4 wins ATS.  San Diego is ranked 3rd in the NFL in run defense and should be able to limit the Jets run game and force them to throw.  Pennington has been horrible since going down earlier this season with his injury.  The Jets have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road in January.  The Jets will probably be playing without their best pass rusher and their best possession receiver.  Loss:  The Chargers fail to capitalize and lose the game.

Sunday, January 2, 2004:

Pittsburgh/Buffalo  Over 33.5:  The Steelers won't play some of the starters for long, but Maddox is an experienced starter and the O-line should be able to help the Steelers put some points on the board.  The Steelers defense has not played great lately and the Bills offense.  Buffalo has gone over in 8 of their last 9 overall, averaging 37 points on offense in their last 3.  Buffalo has also gone over in 9 of their last 10 as home favorites of 7->9.5 points after winning + going over.  Pittsburgh has gone over in 7 straight games in January.  Teams playing as road dogs in conference after 6 straight wins have gone over in 8 of 9 games since the 2000 season.  It may rain a little, but the weather will be above freezing so the offenses should be able to move the ball enough.  Win:  This one was nearly over the total by halftime as 53 points are scored.

Cincinnati (-3) over Philadelphia:  The Bengals will try to avoid a losing season and will want a win badly.  Philadelphia may play their starters for 1 series, or not at all as they rest up for the playoffs.  The Eagles got beat badly by the Rams when they rested their starters on Monday night.  Kitna is a quality starter and should be able to help the Bengals come up with a big road win against a careless team.  The Bengals have won the last 5 meetings ATS between these two and have gone 10-1 ATS in non-conference games after going under at home dating back to 1985.  The Bengal's have won 3 straight ATS on the road while Philadelphia has dropped their last 3 ATS and have managed to score just 12 points in those games.  Win:  The Bengals destroy the Eagles by 28 points.

Chicago (-3) over Green Bay:  The Packers have nothing to play for, yet they may play their starters for some of the game.  We don't think they will play long as they can not afford any more injuries.  The Bears made a statement in Green Bay earlier this season and coach Smith will have his team motivated to be 2-0 against the Pack this season.  The Packers have gone just 7-22 ATS as road dogs on outside turf since 1985.  Chicago has won 8 in a row ATS after going under in 4 straight.  The Bears are also 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home after 2 straight unders and 7-2 ATS since last season after going under on the road.  We like Bears to bring their A game today, while the Packers will be getting rest for the playoffs.  Loss:  The starter for the Packers stay in the game long enough to build a big lead.

New York Jets (-3.5) over St. Louis:  The AFC has shown time and again this season that it has the stronger conference and it should happen again in this game with huge playoff implications.  The Jets are a better team overall as they have outscored their opponents by 5 this season while the Rams have been outscored by an average of 5 this season.  The Jets should be able to run all day against one of the worst run defenses in the league (Rams are ranked 27th in run D and the Jets are ranked 4th in rushing offense).  St. Louis won last week against an uninterested Philly team and will have a short week to prepare.  St. Louis has gone 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home dogs of 3->6.5 points after a win.  Loss:  The Rams need overtime to win this on a field goal.

  Dallas (+3) over New York Giants:  The Giants have dropped 8 straight games and tonight should be their 9th.  Dallas will have a strong rushing attack with Jones running against a completely depleted defensive line of the Giants who rank 28th in rushing defense this season.  New York has lost 6 in a row ATS in division games after 3 losses, 6 in a row ATS at home after 3 losses since switching to a grass field, and are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after losing on the road.  Since last season, teams have gone 14-5-1 ATS on the road in games with a 3->6.5 point spread in division games after 2 wins ATS.  The Cowboys are in that position today.  Parcell's should be able to come up with enough defensive schemes to make Manning struggle yet again as the Cowboy's should emerge victorious.  Loss:  The Cowboys lose by just 4 on a late TD with 11 seconds left.

Sunday, December 26, 2004:

San Diego (+7) over Indianapolis:  The Colts hype surrounding Payton Manning has led to an inflated line against a team with the same record and the same things to play for.  The Chargers continue to be underated and have gone 6-0 ATS all time as road dogs of 7->9.5 after winning ATS + going under.  San Diego has also gone 6-0-1 ATS on the road this season and have won 12 in a row ATS on the road in a dome stadium after winning ATS.  Teams have gone 14-5-2 ATS since last season as road dogs after 4 wins.  Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS all time at home against the Chargers.  Teams have gone 3-11 ATS since 1985 as home favorites in domed stadiums after 7 straight wins.  Win:  Indianapolis needs a comeback and OT to win, but the Chargers cover.

Detroit (-6) over Chicago:  The Lions have been a few point from having a .500 season while the Bears are in a tailspin.  Chicago will be playing without their 2 best defensive players and haven't scored an offensive touchdown the last 2 weeks.  Detroit is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home after 3 wins ATS and are 6-0 ATS as 3->6.5 point favorites in division games after going over at home.  Chicago has gone 0-7 ATS at Detroit after a home game and have gone 0-6 ATS against Detroit after 2 losses SU + ATS (dating back to 1985).  Chicago is also 0-6 ATS the past 2 seasons after going under at home.  Teams have gone 0-7 ATS as dogs in division games after 2 losses + going under this season.  Push:  The Lions blow their 13 point lead in the 4th as they win by 6.

 Atlanta/New Orleans Under 46.5:  The Falcons are not playing for anything so their offense will suffer big time as Vick is not expected to play as well as their Pro bowl TE in Crumpler.  The last 8 meetings between these two teams has gone under the total 6 times.  Atlanta has gone under in all 6 games the past 2 seasons playing on the road in conference after a home game.  This season the Falcons have gone under in all 6 games following 2 wins.  New Orleans has won 2 straight on the road and now return home.  They have gone under in all 7 games played in that situation since 1985.  Also since 85, teams have gone under in all 6 games as home favorites in a dome after 2 wins ATS + going under on the road.  Win:  Our "Game of the Week" picks in the NFL now move to 10-4 on the season.

Dallas (+2) over Washington:  The Skins have played well the past 2 weeks, but are going on the road against a hungry team that they haven't fared well against in the past.  Dallas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two.  Since 1985, Dallas has gone 8-1 ATS as dogs to Washington after 2 losses and they have gone 10-2 ATS against Washington with a PK->2.5 point spread.  Washington has lost 10 straight ATS against Dallas as favorites after a win.  Teams have gone 0-7 ATS the past 2 seasons in PK->2.5 point games in division after winning SU + ATS + going over on the road.  We think Dallas will come out charged in this rivalry and be able to take a win in front of the home crowd.  Win:  Dallas controls most of the game and scores the late TD to win outright.

Sunday, December 19, 2004:

Seattle/NY Jets  Under 41:  These teams play in an important game for both teams and there are may trends that point to the Under in this one.  Seattle's top reciever in Jackson has missed practice all week and the Seattle offense will suffer.  Teams have gone under in 7 of the 8 games since last season on the road in games with s 3->6.5 point spread on grass after winning ATS + going under on the road.  The Jets have gone under in all 8 games as home favorites of 3->6.5 in non conference games since 1985.  The Under for the Jets is also a nice 6-0 as home favorites on grass after losing SU + ATS and 10-1 in their last 11 as home favorites of 3->6.5 after a road game.  We like the fact that both teams primarily run the ball, which means run the clock.  Loss:  Seattle's defense doesn't show up as the Jet's pound the Seahawks.

Denver/Kansas City  Under 53:  The Broncos are in desperate need of a win and their defense should be able to hold KC enough at bay to get it.  Denver has gone under in 5 straight as road favorites of PK->2.5 after a win.  Denver has also gone under in 6 straight as road favorites since last season and they have gone under in all 6 games on the road this season.  This total is extremely high for a game in which there will be freezing temperatures.  The Broncos will try to keep the ball out of the hands of KC and control the clock and possession in this game.  Kansas City can score points, but Denver can shut people down.  This total just seems too high.  Loss:  Denver's defense fails to show up and they get pumped by the KC offense.

 Baltimore/Indianapolis  Under 49:  Baltimore is a team this week that is in desperate need of a win and should play their style of football enough in this game to keep this one under.  Baltimore should be able to run the ball and keep the ball out of Manning's hands and the Colts offense.  Baltimore has gone under in 10 straight games on the road with a 7->9.5 point spread and teams have gone under in all 6 games this season as dogs in a dome after 2 overs.  Indianapolis is playing in a spot where teams usually go under as well.  Teams have gone under in 8 of 9 as home favorites of 7->9.5 in domes after 3 straight wins since 1990.  Teams have also gone under in all 6 as home favorites of 6->7.5 in a dome after winning on the road.  Win: Baltimore hold close to Indy as the Under is an easy winner by 19 points.

Saturday, December 18, 2004:

Carolina/Atlanta  Under 42:  The Panther's have been able to score points of late, but run into a situation against a strong Atlanta defense that should be able to hold the Panthers at bay.  Atlanta has gone under in 5 straight games and have one of the leagues underrated defenses.  Carolina has gone under in 12 of their last 13 games in division after a win.  Teams playing as dogs in division after 2 wins this season have gone under in 11 of the 12 games.  Atlanta has gone under in all 7 since 1985 as home favorites of 3->6.5 after 2 unders, under in 10 of 11 as home favorites of 3->6.5 in conference after an under, and under in 10 of the last 11 as home favorites after an under.  With 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two, we like the under to take the cash again.  Loss:  This one looks good until the 4th quarter.

Sunday, December 12, 2004:

 New York Jets/Pittsburgh  Under 36.5:  This is the biggest match-up of the day and we like the prospects of it going under.  These teams are ranked 1st and 3rd in points allowed this season.  The Jets have gone under in 15 of their last 16 as road dogs after winning ATS and going under (11-0 after a home game).  The Jets have also gone under in 6 straight on grass after 2 wins + under, 9 straight on the road in conference after 3 straight wins, and in 6 straight the last 2 seasons after winning + going under.  The Steelers have gone under in 9 of their last 10 games in conference as 3->6.5 point favorites after losing ATS and going under on the road.  Since last season, teams have gone under in 7 of the 8 games played as home favorites of 3->6.5 on grass after 5 straight wins.  Win:  Defenses dominate as this goes under by 13.5 points!

Detroit (+11) over Green Bay:  The Packers are a team America loves and the line shows it this one as they were dismantled last week, but are double digit favorites against a team they are just 2 games better than.  Detroit has won 6 in a row ATS as road dogs of 7->9.5 points after 2 home games, 10 in a row as road dogs of 7->9.5 in conference after a home game, and 8 straight as road dogs of 7->9.5 after a home game.  The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games in December.  Green Bay has gone just 3-3 SU at home this season, going 2-4 ATS.  The Packers have gone 0-6 ATS since the 2000 season as home favorites in conference games after losing ATS and going over on the road.  We like the Lions to hang around in this game.  Win:  Detroit leads most of the game and losses on a last second field goal.

St. Louis/Carolina  Over 44:  The last 3 meetings between these two have gone over and we like this to be the 4th.  The Rams have gone over in 11 straight games as dogs on grass after losing ATS and going under at home.  The Rams have also gone over in 8 of their last 9 on the road after winning + going under and over in 8 straight since last season after a win.  The Rams have given up an average of 31.8 points a game on the road this season.  Carolina has gone over in 9 straight at home after going over on the road and the over in 5-0-1 in their last 6 as home favorites after an over since last season.  Carolina's offense has come alive in the second half of this season as they have scored an average of 29.3 point a game in their last 3 games.  Loss:  This one looks good in the first half, but scoring stops there.

Philadelphia (-9.5) over Washington:  The Eagles have been crushing opponents since their only loss to the Steelers as they have won their last 4 games by totals of 28, 22, 21, and 30.  The Eagles are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 on the road after winning ATS + going over, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as road favorites in division games, and 11-0 in their last 11 on grass after an over.  Philly has also won 6 straight as road favorites in conference since last season.  Washington has lost 7 games in a row ATS against division opponents playing at home after winning SU + ATS and has lost 9 straight at home in conference following a win.  Injuries have hurt Washington this season and lack of offensive production should keep them out of this game.  Loss:  Philly wins but can't cover on the road.

Philadelphia/Washington  Under 37.5:  These teams are playing in a situation where the under usually takes the cash.  In their last 10 meetings, the under has gone 6-3-1.  Philadelphia has gone under in 10 of their last 12 games against Washington after a home game and have gone under in 8 of their last 11 games overall.  Teams playing as road favorites in a division game after 4 wins ATS have gone under in 10 of 11 since 2000.  Washington has gone under in 6 straight vs. Philadelphia at home following a home game.  The Skins have also gone under in 10 of their last 11 on grass after going over at home.  Washington has gone under in 9 of the 12 games they have played this season and we expect that trend to continue in this game.  Win:  This one falls under the total by 6.5 points to complete another winning weekend in the NFL!

Sunday, December 5, 2004:

Chicago (+7.5) over Minnesota:  The Bears are playing a strong team in the Vikings, but should be able to keep it close enough at home with the Vikings.  The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as dogs to Minnesota following and under.  Chicago is also 8-1 ATS as dogs of 7->9.5 points in division games after losing SU + ATS.  The Bears have also gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as dogs after losing SU + ATS + going under and are 7-0 ATS as home dogs of 7->9.5 points after 2 losses ATS since last season.  Minnesota has gone 0-5-1 ATS as road favorites of 7->9.5 points after going under at home since last season.  The Vikings have gone 0-7 ATS as favorites against the Bears after winning + going under since 1985.  Teams are just 1-7 ATS as road favorites in division games after 2 unders at home.  Win:  The Bears win the game by 10 to stun the Vikings.

San Francisco/St. Louis Over 48:  These two teams have 2 of the worst defenses in the league and it will show today.  The over for San Francisco has gone 12-1 in their last 13 division games as 10->13.5 point favorites after losing ATS since 1985.  The 49ers have also gone over in 6 straight games in a dome as road dogs after an over.  The Rams have gone over in 8 of their last 9 as home favorites following 2 losses on the road.  St Louis has also gone over in 6 straight as home favorites in division games after losing ATS and in 8 straight as home favorites after losing ATS + going over on the road.  The Rams have gone over in all 6 games since last season as home favorites after a loss and this one appears to be no different.  Loss:  Game of field goals as this one goes under the total.

Carolina/New Orleans  Under 46.5:  These teams have disappointed this season, but the defenses should hold enough to keep this game under the total.  Carolina has gone under in 11 of their last 12 games on the road in division after winning ATS and in 11 straight in division after winning since the 2000 season.  The Saints have gone under in 7 straight games  in conference after losing + winning ATS and under in 7 straight games as home favorites after going under on the road.  These teams will be able to put points on the board, but the total in this one just seems too high.  Loss:  Garbage touchdown with the game decided puts this one over the total.

San Diego (-3) over Denver:  The Chargers are no longer a surprise, but they are a solid team that should be able to cover against a Denver on the road.  San Diego has gone 8-1 ATS as home favorites in division games after winning on the road since 1985.  Teams playing in the Chargers position have fared well historically.  Since 1985, teams have gone 7-0 ATS in conference games as 3->6.5 point favorites after 7 wins ATS and 6-0 ATS in division games after 8 straight wins ATS.   Since last season, teams playing as 3->6.5 point favorites in division games after 5 wins ATS have gone 5-0-1 ATS.  San Diego will be seeking revenge for 1 of their 3 losses this season to the Broncos in Denver.  Push:  San Diego had a 13 point lead at one point in the second half and hold on for the push.

 Denver/San Diego Under 47.5:  The Chargers and Broncos will be playing in conditions not typical of southern California as it should be rainy and windy for this contest.  This means the ground game should chew enough clock up to keep this one under the total.  The Broncos have gone under in 8 straight meetings with the Chargers in San Diego after losing ATS + going over in the previous game.  The Chargers have gone under in all 7 games at home since 2000 in division games after an over on the road.  The Chargers have also gone under in 10 of their last 11 at home in games with a 3->6.5 point spread in division after a road game.  Win:  This game falls under easily as they combine for just 37 points.

Monday, November 29, 2004:

Green Bay (-6.5) over St. Louis:  The Packers are playing well and look to push towards the playoffs as they host the Rams in frigid conditions.  The Rams have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.  Green Bay has won 5 in a row and are a perfect 7-0 ATS all time at home after 5 straight wins.  Green Bay is also a perfect 5-0 ATS against St. Louis when playing at home.  The Rams have gone just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as road dogs on grass after losing SU + ATS.  Green Bay's 3rd ranked offense should be able to cover the spread over the 28th ranked defense in the league, even if it is without Green.  Win:  The Packers dominate the Rams as we roll to 6 straight NFL Top Notch Pick winners!

Sunday, November 28, 2004:

Philadelphia/N.Y. Giants Under 37.5:  The Eagles should win this game, but the Giants defense and running game should keep them in this one long enough for it to go under the total.  Philadelphia has gone under in their last 6 games against the Giants after a home games and in 8 of their 9 games since the 2000 season on the road in conference after a win + an under.  Teams this season have gone under in 14 of the 15 games played on the road in division after 2 wins.  The Giants have gone under in 9 of their last 10 at home in division games after a home game and in all 6 since 2000 at home in division after 2 unders.  Since last season, teams have gone under in all 6 games as home dogs of 7->9.5 points after 3 losses.  Win:  Giants score just 3 points to drop this one under the total.

Tampa Bay/Carolina Under 40:  These teams are defensive teams still and the under seem a bit too high.  Both teams gave up just 3 points against their opponents last week.  Tampa Bay has gone under in 8 of 9 games as road favorites on grass after a win.  Carolina has gone under in 6 straight division games at home after a win and since the 2000 season, they have gone under in all 11 games played in division after a win.  Since last season, teams have gone under in all 6 games with a pk->2.5 point spread after going over in their previous 4 games.  Win:  Teams combine for 35 points to take this one under the total.

San Diego (+3) over Kansas City:  The Chargers have been underrated all season and continue to be this week against a disappointing Chiefs team.  The Chargers have won 7 straight games ATS and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road after 5 straight wins (dating back to 1985).  Teams have gone 15-3-1 ATS as dogs after 4 straight wins since last season.  Since 1985, teams have gone 10-2 ATS in division games after 7 wins ATS.  Kansas City has gone 0-6 ATS since 2000 as favorites after 2 straight losses SU + ATS and they're 0-7 ATS as favorites after losing SU + ATS + going under in 2 straight games.  Kansas City's offense can still score, but have struggled to score enough to win games without Priest Holmes in the line up.  We'll take the upstart Chargers in this one.  Win:  Chargers come up with another big win on the road.

Houston (+2) over Tennessee:  The Titan's have played well of late, but are once again being decimated by injuries at this point in the season.  Their secondary has been injured all season.  Tennessee has had 6 starters out last week, and 2 more big injuries were found out this week.  McNair is having one of his worst seasons as a pro as he has battled nagging injuries as well.  Houston is desperate for a win and should be able to come through against this division rival.  Houston has gone 7-1 ATS at home after 2 straight losses and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 after 2 losses.  Teams playing as home dogs of pk->2.5 points in division games after losing + going under at home the previous week have gone 7-1 ATS since 1985.  Win:  Houston rallies from an 18 point deficit to win by 10.

 New Orleans (+10) over Atlanta:  The Falcons may have a let down this week against a Saint's squad that is desperate for a win.  New Orleans has gone 7-1 ATS on the road after 2 unders at home, 8-0 ATS on the road in division games after losing ATS, and 7-0 ATS on the road in division after losing SU + ATS at home.  The Saints have also gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road dogs after a loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road after a home loss.  Atlanta has gone 0-9 ATS at home after 3 straight wins ATS.  As bad as they have been this season, the Saints still have a decent shot at the playoffs, but this is a make or break week.  Atlanta has a comfortable 4 game lead in the division and shouldn't be able to hammer the Saints by more than 10 points.  Win:  Saints give up the lead in the final minutes to lose the game outright, but they do cover the spread!

Thursday, November 25, 2004:

Detroit (+10) over Indianapolis:  The Colts have played great football the past few weeks, but fatigue may get the better of them here as they will be playing their 4th game in 18 days.  Detroit has played well the past few weeks as well, just losing to Minnesota in the 4th and Jacksonville in OT.  Detroit has gone 3-0 ATS as home dogs of 7->9.5 on Thanksgiving day and 12-0 ATS since 2000 as 7->9.5 point dogs after a loss.  The Lions have also gone 8-0 ATS since 1985 as 7->9.5 point dogs after 3 straight losses.  Teams playing in Indianapolis' spot as road favorites in a non-conference game after 4 overs has gone just 1-9 ATS.  We like the Lion's to make this one interesting, just like they have the past two weeks.  Loss:  The Lions get hammered as they commit 5 turnovers.

Sunday, November 21, 2004:

Pittsburgh (-4) over Cincinnati:  The Steelers are the hottest team in the pros and should be able to continue that this week.  The Steelers are good after winning streaks as they have gone 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 after 4 straight wins and since 2000 they have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS after winning 2 in a row and going under.  Since 1985, teams playing as 3->6.5 point favorites in conference games after 7 straight wins have gone 7-0 ATS.  Cincinnati has lost 6 in a row ATS as home dogs of 3->6.5 points in division games after a road game (4 of those losses to the the Steelers).  The Bengals are also just 1-7 ATS at home vs. Pittsburgh after a win ATS and 0-6 ATS in conference games as home dogs of 3->6.5 after a road game since 2000.  We'll take the hot Steelers big in this one.  Win:  Safety in the 4th quarter seals a win by the dominant defense.

   Detroit (+7.5) over Minnesota:  The Vikings will probably be without Moss again this week and have lost 3 in a row.  Detroit has gone 8-1 ATS as road dogs of 7->9.5 after 3 losses since 1985.  The Lions are also a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road after 3 straight losses ATS (2 at Minnesota) and 12-0 ATS as 7->9.5 point road dogs after a loss since the 2000 season.  Minnesota is playing in a spot where teams have not fared well ATS in the past.  Teams are 0-7 ATS since 1985 as home favorites of 7->9.5 after losing + going over on the road in 2 straight.  Teams are 0-8 ATS at home in conference games after losing SU + winning ATS + going over on the road since last season.  Teams playing as home favorites in a dome after a loss this season have gone 0-7 ATS.  Detroit has played well enough on the road this season to keep this one interesting.  Win:  The Lions control most of the game and end up losing by just 3 points, but covers the spread.

San Diego (-3.5) over Oakland:  The Chargers will come into Oakland playing great football as they have posted double digit wins in 4 of their last 5 games (only lost to Atlanta by 1).  The Chargers have won 6 in a row ATS overall and teams playing in that spot since 1985 have gone 11-3 ATS on the road in division games.  San Diego is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road after 5 wins ATS and a perfect 6-0 ATS against the Raiders after a win ATS.  Oakland has gone 0-7 ATS at home vs. the Chargers after winning ATS, 1-7 ATS as home dogs after 2 road games, and 0-7 since last season in conference games after going over.  Oakland is one of the weaker teams in the NFL this season and the Chargers should be able to produce another double digit win in this game.  Win:  The Chargers continue their roll with a 6 point win in Oakland.

Atlanta (-2.5) over New York Giants:  The Falcons have gone 7-2 this season and should put up another solid performance against the struggling Giants.  Atlanta has gone 5-1 ATS in their past 6 meetings and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road in conference after going under at home.  Teams playing as road favorites in conference games after 2 wins ATS have gone 7-0 ATS this season, while teams playing as home dogs in conference games after losing ATS + going under have gone 0-7 ATS.  The Giants have gone 1-8 ATS at home on grass after losing ATS on the road, 1-12-1 ATS on grass after losing ATS + going under since 2000, and 1-9 ATS at home after losing on the road.  New York has dropped 7 straight contests ATS at home after a road game.  New York has lost to Arizona, Chicago, and Detroit in 3 of the past 4 weeks.  Win:  Atlanta leads throughout and covers with a 4 point win.

Houston/Green Bay Over 49:  This game features two of the better offenses (ranked 4th and 9th) with two of the worst defenses (ranked 22nd and 27th).  The Packers have gone over in 10 of their last 11 as favorites after going over at home (7 of those occurred on the road).  The over for the Packers is also 8-1 in their last 9 on the road in a non-conference game, 9-1 in their last 10 as road favorites after winning + going over, and 7-0 in non-conference games after losing ATS since the year 2000.  Houston will play in prime time and should be able to match artillery with Green Bay as this one should cruise past the total.  Loss:  Offenses struggle early as this one goes under.

Sunday, November 14, 2004:

Tampa Bay/Atlanta Under 40:  Tampa Bay's defense is not as strong as it once was, but should be good enough with Atlanta improved defense to keep this one under the total.  Teams playing in Tampa's position as dogs in a division game after 2 wins in a row have gone under in all 6 occurrences this season.  For Atlanta, the Under is 7-1 as home favorites of 3->6.5 in conference after winning on the road, 7-0 as home favorites since 2000 in conference games after winning ATS on the road, and 11-1 in their last 12 as home favorites in the dome after winning ATS.  Since 1985, teams playing in Atlanta's position of a home game with a 3->6.5 point spread in a dome after going over on the road in their last two games, have gone under in 23 of those 31 games.  Win:  This one sneaks under the total as Tampa Bay scores 14.

Houston (+9.5) over Indianapolis:  Houston still remains one of the leagues underrated teams as they should be able to hang close with the Colts.  Houston has gone 7-0 ATS in team history as road dogs in conference games after losing SU + ATS.  Indianapolis has gone 1-10 ATS as home favorites in division games after losing ATS + going over, 0-7 ATS as home favorites in division games after losing ATS at home, and 0-6-1 ATS as home favorites in conference games with a 7->9.5 point spread after an over.  Teams in Indy's position as home favorites of 7->9.5 points in domes after losing ATS + going over in their previous 2 games have gone 1-8 ATS since 1985.  We think 9.5 is too many points for a team with such a poor defense to be favored.  Loss:  Houston can't compete with Indianapolis' offense.

Cincinnati (+3) over Washington:  The Bengals are a team that isn't ready to give up on the playoffs yet, while it seems that the Redskins are struggling to find consistency and avoid injury.  The Bengals have gone 9-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games after a game in which they went under in at home.  Washington has gone 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games at home after winning SU + ATS on the road.  The Skins have also dropped 3 straight as favorites this season and have lost 7 straight ATS as home favorites after a win ATS.  Cincinnati should be able to exploit an injured Washington defense here to pull off the upset.  Win:  The Bengals control the game and win it outright by 7 points.

 Green Bay (-4) over Minnesota:  These teams seem to be headed on opposite paths as the Packers will come off a bye week fresh, while Minnesota seems to be going through a tough stretch.  Green Bay has gone 7-1 ATS as home favorites of 3->6.5 after 3 overs since 1985, 11-1-1 ATS as home favorites after 2 wins + going over, and 8-0 ATS as home favorites in division games after 3 Overs.  The Pack has also gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after winning ATS + going over on the road.  Minnesota has gone 0-6 ATS in their history after losing + going over on the road.  Minnesota is also 0-7 ATS on the road in 3->6.5 point games after losing since 2000 and 0-6 ATS in that same time span as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after an over.  Loss:  This one hurts as the Packers blew a 14 point lead in the 4th.

Buffalo/New England Under 37.5:  Buffalo has struggled scoring on the road against good defenses this season and the Patriots should be challenged enough by the Bills to keep this one under.  The under for New England is 11-1-1 at home vs. Buffalo after playing on the road the previous week.  Buffalo has gone under in 9 of their last 10 as road dogs after an over and in 6 straight to New England after a home game.  The under for the Bills has also gone 7-1-1 when they play as road dogs to New England after a home games.  With the under going 13-4-1 since 2000 for the Patriots as home favorites after a road games, we'll take our chances on the under tonight.  Win:  Buffalo manages just a punt return for a TD as this one goes under to complete 2 winning weeks in the NFL in a row!

Sunday, November 7, 2004:

Pittsburgh (+1) over Philadelphia:  Both teams have ailing running backs in this situation and will try to accomplish their scoring through the air.  Pittsburgh is in a good spot against the undefeated Eagles to get a win.  Philadelphia is the only unbeaten team and T.O. seems to be concentrated on marketing and not football.  Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS after 4 wins in a row since 1985 and 6-0 ATS in games as PK->2.5 dogs on grass after a win ATS at home (beating the Patriot's last week).  Since 1985, teams have gone 13-4 ATS as home dogs in games where the spread was PK->2.5 following 3 straight wins ATS.  Philadelphia has gone 0-8 ATS as non-conference favorites after 3 straight wins since 1985 and 0-9-1 ATS as road favorites in non-conference games after a win since 1985.  In the battle of Pennsylvania, well take the home team to come out on top in this one.  Win:  Steelers dominate the Eagles and roll to victory.

St. Louis (+1) over New England:  New England had been riding a great winning streak since last season, but have to compete without their starting corners in this game and it may just be too much to overcome in St. Louis.  We like the Rams to open it up against the Patriots as they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in non-conference games after they had lost ATS and gone over in their previous game.  St. Louis has also won 7 in a row ATS in non-conference games at home after a loss ATS.  We like the Rams to take advantage of the Patriots in the air and get the win at home.  Loss:  Special teams and trickery by the Pats take this game.

  Houston/Denver  Over 41:  Houston will come into mile high confident in their abilities this week, especially on offense where they are ranked 9th in the league and are up against a defense without their lead safety in the game.  Domanick Davis is healthy and the Houston offense should be balanced enough to keep Denver honest.  In team history, Denver is 7-0 ATS as home favorites in conference games after losing  SU + ATS and going over at home.  Denver is fifth in the league in offense and Houston is ranked a lowly 24th in defense.  This game should resemble last week's Atlanta game in Mile high.  Win:  Houston's late TD take this over the total as Denver puts up 41 points.

Monday, November 1, 2004:

Miami/New York Jets  Under 35.5:  In this Monday night battle of division teams, we expect the defenses to shine.  Miami has gone under in 12 of their 14 games since 2000 after winning ATS and going over.  Miami has also gone under in 7 of their last 8 as road dogs of 7->9.5 points after a home game.  The Jets have gone under in all 8 games they have played as home favorites after an under on the road since the 2000 season.  The under is 5-0-1 when the Jets are favorites after 3 straight unders and 12-3-1 in their last 16 overall at home.  With 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two going under, we like it to stay a low scoring affair tonight.  Loss:  Jet's defense shows up, Miami's does not.

Sunday, October 31, 2004:

Carolina/Seattle  Under 39.5:  Seattle is trying to end a 3 game slide and they should be able to due to their defense playing solid again.  Carolina is a banged up team on both sides of the ball, but have been horrid on offense.  Carolina has gone under in 7 of their last 8 games on grass after 2 straight losses and have gone under in 13 of their 17 games since 2000 on grass after going under.  Seattle has gone under in 15 of their last 18 as home favorites in conference games after playing 2 straight on the road.  Seattle has also gone under in 7 of their last 8 as home favorites after losing ATS (since their home field has been grass).  Loss:  This game goes over by just .5 a point as Carolina scores a hurtful TD in the last 2 minutes.

Atlanta/Denver  Over 39:  These teams were hampered on offense the past week, but should be able to turn it around today.  The past 6 times these teams have met, the over has won the total.  Atlanta has gone over in 6 straight non-conference games as dogs after a road game.  Teams playing as road dogs in non-conference games after 3 losses ATS have gone over in 15 of the 20 games since 2000 and this season the over is 7-0 for teams as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after 3 losses ATS.  Since 2000, the over for teams has gone 17-7 as home favorites of 3->6.5 in non-conference games after 2 road games. (Denver is in this situation today).  Win:  Vick and company roll over the Broncos as this goes over easily.

  Oakland (+6) over San Diego:  This rivalry game should be closer than the point spread suggests.  Oakland has gone 7-0 ATS in their history as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after losing 2 in row SU + ATS.  The Raiders are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in division as road dogs of 3->6.5 points.  Since 1986, teams playing as 3->6.5 point road dogs after losing SU + ATS in 4 straight games have gone 7-1-1 ATS.  San Diego has enjoyed success so far this season, but are in a spot not to cover.  Since 2000, teams are 4-13-2 ATS as home favorites of 3->6.5 points in division games after 3 wins ATS.  This season teams have gone 0-6 ATS as home favorites of 3->6.5 points as home favorites after 2 unders.  Loss:  The Raiders play with no passion as their talented defense is reeling.

Monday, October 25, 2004:

  Denver (-6) over Cincinnati:  The Broncos come into a big Monday night game playing great football so far this season.  Denver has the best total defense in the league this season allowing just 12.6 points a game.  Teams playing in Denver's position after 2 wins have gone 10-1 with the spread being 3->6.5 and 11-2 when playing in conference.  Since 2000, teams in Cincinnati's position of 3->6.5 points road dogs in conference after 3 straight losses have gone just 10-24-3.  Cincy is 0-6-1 ATS at home on grass after losing + going over and 1-8 ATS as home dogs of 3->6.5 in conference games after 3 losses + over on the road.  Look for the strong running game of the Broncos to control the line of scrimmage in this one.  Loss:  Denver get dumped by the desperate Bengals.

Sunday, October 24, 2004:

Jacksonville/Indianapolis Under 46:  The Jaguars have gone under in 10 of the 12 games they have played in domed stadiums.  The Jaguars have relied on their defense this season to keep them in games and should as well today.  Jacksonville has also gone under in 7 straight division games as dogs following a win the previous week.  For the Colts, the under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games at home in 7->9.5 point games after a previous home game.  Indy has also gone under in 6 straight dome stadium games with a 7->9.5 point spread after 2 wins.  In the NFL since 85', the under has gone 11-1-1 for teams at home in division games with a 7->9.5 point spread after 2 wins.  Loss: This goes over by one score as both teams put up points late.

Tennessee/Minnesota Under 53.5:  With the hype of Culpepper's accomplishments this season, we think it's over inflated, especially with Moss and Mc Nair questionable.  Minnesota has gone under the total in all 6 games they have played against non-conference opponents after winning + going over on the road when the spread is 7->9.5.  Since 2000, teams playing at home when the spread has been 7->9.5 after 2 wins on the road have gone under in 17 of the next 18 games.  Tennessee should be able to slow Minnesota enough to keep this under the high total.  Win:  No McNair and limited Moss makes this one fall under easily!

Chicago (+7) over Tampa Bay:  The Bears appear to be more hungry for a win in this one and should be able to keep it close with their running game.  Chicago has gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as 7->9.5 point dogs after losing SU + ATS (6-0 after an under in the previous week).  Teams playing as road dogs of 7->9.5 points on grass after 2 losses ATS at home have gone 17-5 ATS since 1985.  Tampa Bay is a miserable 0-6 ATS as home favorites of 7->9.5 on grass after 2 straight losses ATS at home.  This game seems like it will be a low scoring affair and we think the 7 points is just too much to pass up on.  Loss: Tampa wins in this ugly contest as the Bears can't keep it close.

Atlanta/Kansas City Over 44.5:  The Falcons and Chiefs meet in what should be a shoot out.  Atlanta has gone over  in 8 of their last 9 as road dogs after a winning SU and losing ATS.  Atlanta has also gone over in 7 of  their last 8 as dogs of 3->6.5 points in non-conference games after going under.  This season, teams have gone over in 8 of the 9 games they have played as road dogs of 3->6.5 points in non-conference games after winning SU and losing ATS.  Kansas City has gone over in all 6 games they have played at home in non-conference games after a road game when the spread is 3->6.5 points.  Vick should have a big day as well as the Chiefs offense in good playing conditions.  Win:  Chiefs light up the scoreboard and this one goes over with their points alone!

New Orleans (+3) over Oakland:  The Saints will look for a win on the road as they are in a good spot to do it at Oakland.  The Saints have gone 13-4 ATS on grass after playing 2 previous games at home.  The Saints are also a nice 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as road dogs after losing a game at home.  Oakland has had a bad news season and the Saint's should be hungry enough to grab a road win in this one.  Oakland has gone just 2-10-1 ATS in their history as home favorites after losing 3 straight games ATS.  With the Saints 6-2 ATS in their last 8 on the road, we like them to cover today.  Win:  The Saints march into Oakland and take a victory in Raider land!

Monday, October 18, 2004:

Tampa Bay/St. Louis  Under 42.5:  The Buccaneer's still have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL, which should force St. Louis to run more.  The Buc's offense has struggled and should find it tough scoring on an improving Ram's defense.  Tampa Bay has gone under in 7 straight games on the road following a previous road game.  Teams playing in the Rams position have gone under in several key situations.  The under is 16-1 since 2000 when a team is playing in a home game with a 7->9.5 point spread after 2 straight wins on the road.  For teams playing in domes as home favorites after 2 wins SU + ATS on the road, the under is 16-5-1.  Loss:  This one sneaks over the total by a TD.

Sunday, October 17, 2004:

 Cincinnati/Cleveland  Under 41:  The Browns and Bengals are in a good spot to keep this total under today in what should be in-climate conditions in Cleveland.  For Cincinnati the under is 8-0 when they play on the road in division games after losing ATS + going over when the spread is 3->6.5.  The under is also 8-2 when they are road dogs in a division game after a loss.  Cleveland has gone under in 7 straight division games after an over.  The under is 10-1 for teams playing at home after losing + going over (Brown's position).  Both teams are coming off a loss SU + ATS + over in their previous game, and teams have gone under all 6 times this has occurred in the NFL this season.   Loss:  Big plays and a lack of Cincinnati defense.

Miami/Buffalo Under 30.5:  These teams are great defenses and horrid offenses.  In cool weather with a 60% chance of rain, we still like this total to go under the low mark.  Miami has gone under in all 7 games against Buffalo after a loss since 1985 and under in 8 straight as dogs after a loss.  Buffalo has gone under in 8 of their last 10 games in conference after losing + winning ATS on the road and under in 7 straight as home favorites after going under on the road.  Miami has also gone under in 9 of 10 as 3->6.5 point dogs in division games after losing.  Loss:  Pick returned for a TD did this one over by 2.5 points.

Minnesota/New Orleans  Over 51:  This night game features skilled offenses and poor defenses.  Minnesota has many weapons that should be able to light up a weak New Orleans defense, and vice versa. Minnesota has an over record of 7-1-1 when playing at New Orleans in the dome and 9-3-1 in their last 13 games on the road.  The Saints have gone over in 11 straight as 3->6.5 point dogs after losing SU + ATS + going under, including all 6 as home dogs of 3->6.5 after losing + going under.  The over for New Orleans is also 8-0 as dogs after losing ATS + under and 8-3 in their last 11 games in October.  Win:  Total get surpassed in the 3rd quarter in this shoot out.

Sunday, October 10, 2004:

Buffalo at New York Under 37.5:  The Bills come into town looking for a much needed win and their defense should be able to continue many trends.  The Bills have gone under in all 8 games playing when the spread is 7->9.5 points after a loss in team history.  Buffalo has also gone under in 9 straight games as road dogs on grass after a loss and 7 of 8 on the road in division games after a home game.  The Jet's have gone under in all 7 games they have played as home favorites on grass after going under on the road and in all 7 games in conference after 3 straight wins.  The Jets have also gone under in 9 of their last 11 against Buffalo after winning SU + ATS.  Win:  Total of just 30 points scored to make us 3-0 on our Top Notch Pick "Game of the Week"

St. Louis/ Seattle Under 43.5:  The St. Louis offense is coming to Seattle where the defense has excelled to help their undefeated record so far.  The under for the Seahawks have gone 1-10 as favorites on grass after winning SU + ATS after an under.  Seattle has also dropped under the total in 11 straight games as favorites in division play.  In the NFL this season, games played with a 7->9.5 point spread have gone under in all 8 contests.  This game should go under the total with Seattle's defense determining the pace.  Loss:  This game goes to overtime as Seattle defense breaks down in the 4th.

Arizona/San Francisco Under 37:  In perhaps the game least people care about the offenses should struggle enough to go under the total.  The Cardinals have gone under in 9 straight games playing when the point spread is PK->2.5 against a conference opponent after 2 wins ATS.  The Forty Niners have gone under in 7 straight games on grass after 3 straight losses.  With very few skilled players in the game, both teams could have problems with offensive execution in this game.  Loss:  Looked good for the under until the 4th quarter as well.

Sunday, October 3, 2004:

Washington (-3) over Cleveland:  The Redskins come in off a short week, but are more healthy than the Browns will be.  The Redskins have gone 7-1 ATS as road favorites in non-conference games after a previous road game, dating back to 1985 (having won 6 straight).  The Browns have gone 0-5-1 ATS as 3->6.5 point dogs in non-conference games after going under in that same time span.  Since 1985, teams in the NFL playing as home dogs after 2 losses in a row on the road have gone under in 24 of the 35 games.  We don't think the Browns can overcome their injuries to stay in this one.  Loss:  Browns score a late touchdown in the 4th to win by 4.

Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Under 39:  Last season's game between these two in Pittsburgh was a shootout, but now the QB's and offenses have changed.  Cincinnati has gone under in 16 of their last 17 games as road dogs of 3->6.5  in division games after losing ATS.  For Cincy, the under is also 7-1 against the Steelers when the spread in 3->6.5 after losing against the spread.  The Bangles have gone under 6 straight as road dogs after going under in the previous two weeks.  The Steelers have gone under in 9 of their last 11 at home against Cincinnati after a win ATS.  Loss:  Polomolou's interception would have sealed the under if he doesn't take it in the endzone.

   St. Louis/San Francisco Under 44:  The Rams have gone under in all 8 games they have played as road favorites in conference after 2 losses.  Teams in the NFL this season have gone under in all 7 games when played in conference as dogs after losing SU + ATS.  Likewise teams as dogs in conference games after losing SU + ATS have gone under in all 9 of those games.  The 49ers have gone under in all 7 games they have played at home after 3 straight losses since 1985.  San Francisco has also gone under in all 7 games they have played as home dogs after losing on the road.  Win:  These teams play to the tune of just 38 points to make our NFL Top Notch  Pick "Game of the Week" 2-0 this season!

Monday, September 27, 2004:

  Dallas (+1.5) over Washington:  The Cowboys should be able to take advantage of a weak pass defense with their #1 yardage offense and no Lavar Arrington, the Skins defensive leader.  With a hobbled Brunell, there should be a huge pass rush by the Cowboys.  Since 1986, the Cowboys have gone 7-0 ATS as PK->2.5 point dogs in division games in September and Washington has gone 1-7 ATS (losing 4 straight) as PK->2.5 point favorites over Dallas.  Dallas has won 12 of the last 13 meeting SU between these two and are 7-1 ATS when the spread has been PK->2.5.  The Redskins are a dismal 1-12-1 ATS as favorites in division games since the 2000 season.  Win:  Dallas squashes the Redskins again and wins by 3 points.

Sunday, September 26, 2004:

New York Giants (-3) over Cleveland:  The Browns have come on tough times early in the season and we don't think they can overcome so many injuries so fast.  With their top receiving threat of Winslow out,  two starting O-line man out, and Garcia struggling, we think it will be hard for them to compete in a hostile environment. (Not to mention their injuries on defense).  The Giants are in a good spot as they are 10-1-1 ATS since 1985 as home favorites after winning ATS + going under at home and 13-4-2 ATS as home favorites after winning ATS at home.  Win:  Giants roll over the Browns by 17 points for the easy win.

Tennessee (-6) over Jacksonville:  The Jaguars have just slipped past their opponents in the first two weeks of the season, but come into a hostile environment to play a hungry Titans team after a loss to Indy last week.  Jeff Fisher will have his team ready to play against the Jags.  Tennessee's defense should be able to shut down what has been a struggling Jags offense and Mc Nair should be able to expose the tough Jags defense enough to cover.  This pick is the first pick this season by a formula that went an incredible 17-0 last season.  The Titans have gone 4-1 ATS in the past 5 meetings and this should be much of the same.  Loss:  Jacksonville's defense holds up in this one.

Monday, September 20, 2004:

Minnesota/Philadelphia Over 49.5:  These two offenses are power packed and we think the defenses will suffer tonight.  Since 2001, the Vikings have gone over in 10 straight games as road dogs in conference games and the over is 8-0 since 2000 for the Vikes as dogs in conference games after going over in the previous game.  For the Eagles, the over has gone 9-1-1 as home favorites of 3->6.5 points after a win ATS.  Both offenses should be featured in this shoot-out.  Loss:  Vikings can't get in the endzone and this one barely falls under.

Sunday, September 19, 2004:

Arizona (+8) over New England:  The Cardinals came close to winning last week and should be able to do that again this week.  The Patriots will look to extend their winning streak, but should find it tough in the desert.  The Patriots are not good road favorites historically as they are just 12-25 -1 ATS as road favorites since 1985.  In the NFL since 2000, teams playing as road favorites of 7->9.5 have gone just 19-41-1 ATS.  The Cardinals play tough at home as they were 5-0 ATS as home dogs of 7->9.5 last season.  Teams in the NFL are  23-9-3 as home dogs in non-conference games after losing on the road since 2000.  We expect the emotionally charged Cardinals to keep it close if not win today.  Loss:  Only down 5 in the 4th, the Cards give up a pair of field goals to lose by 11.

Sunday, September 12, 2004:

Jacksonville/Buffalo Over 35:  The focus on these two teams in the offense and last season has been on the defenses.  This is the reason for the low total, but the offenses should be improved enough to get over this low total.  Buffalo is looking to get it's offense off to a fast start with Mularky as it's offensive coordinator.  Jacksonville has a healthy Fred Taylor that should mean higher offensive production.  This pick is backed by a formula that has gone over in 73% of it's picks last season, including a perfect 6-0 the first Sunday.  Loss:  The offenses struggle early as the game falls under the total.

Thursday, September 9, 2004:

New England (-3) over Indianapolis:  The Patriots come into tonight's game as defending champs and their defense should carry them tonight.  Indy has lost 7 straight meetings ATS against the Pats.  The Patriots are 5-0-1 ATS in the first week of the season when playing as home favorites (dating back to 1985).  New England's 9-2 ATS mark at home shows they play good ATS at home, and should have an advantage in sloppy conditions.  We like the Patriots to burn up the suspect Indy defense and keep the Colts offense off the board enough to cover the spread. Push:  The Patriots win by 3 points after being up by 10.