2005 College Football Top Notch Picks
Wednesday, January 4, 2006:
USC (-7) over Texas: This game reminds me of last season when the Trojans blew out the Sooners in the national title game. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but I do think USC will win comfortably. USC has won 34 games in a row and have more playmakers on their team with two Heisman trophy winners. The overlooked stat here will be turnovers as USC produced the second most in college football this season. This doesn't bode well for a Texas team that fumbled the ball 31 times this season. Some think that the Longhorn's are superior on defense. If you look at the competition this season for both teams, USC may have the better defense. Texas faced just 3 offenses ranked in the top 35, while USC faced 8 offenses ranked in the top 31. Texas faced only 2 pass offenses ranked in the top 40 and USC faced 7 pass offense in the top 25. LOSS
College Football on Tuesday, January 3, 2006:
Penn State (-10) over Florida State: Penn State seems to have the advantage on both sides of the ball in this match up and should win easily over the Seminoles. Florida State can't run the ball as they have just the 107th ranked rushing attack and will find the scoring tough against the Penn State defense that allows just 16.5 points per game. Penn State has gone 7-0 ATS to end the season and the Seminoles went 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Florida State still has issues on the offensive line and Penn State ranked seventh in the nation in sacks. Florida State will be short handed on defense as their top tackler has been suspended. Penn State has offensive weapons that should put this one out of reach and covering the spread. LOSS
Monday, January 2, 2006:
Alabama (+4) over Texas Tech: Alabama had the best defense in the nation as they allowed just 10.7 points per game on the year. It's hard to turn away from the best defensive team in the country when they are getting points. Texas Tech has a great offense, but they racked up their stats against less than impressive Big 12 defenses (they averaged 19 points per game against the 3 best defenses they played all season). Alabama has won their last 4 ATS in bowl games as dogs following a win. Texas Tech has gone 9-20 SU against winning teams on the road since 1998 (3-6 ATS as favorites). Texas Tech has admitted they are scared of Alabama's speed on defense. Alabama should muster up enough offense for the win. WIN
Iowa (+1) over Florida: The Hawkeyes have several advantages in their favor over the Gators today. Iowa finished the year a strong 5-2 SU and ATS, winning their last 2 with one of those on the road at Wisconsin to end their Big Ten title hopes. Iowa averages nearly 70 yards more per game and would have had a better record if Drew Tate was healthy all season. Florida has lost 5 of their last 6 bowl games and that trend should continue today. Florida had 3 wins this season that they most likely shouldn't have. They scraped by a much lesser Vanderbilt team, beat an injury riddled Florida State team despite being outgained yardage wise, and beat Georgia when they didn't have their star QB. LOSS
Ohio State (-4.5) over Notre Dame: The Buckeyes ended the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the nation as they won their last 6 games SU + ATS. Ohio State is playing in Tempe for the 3rd time in 4 years and won their previous matchups there SU + ATS. Ohio State allowed 14.8 points per game this season, allowing just 10 a game in their last 3 games where they held opponents to a measly 63.7 yards a contest on the ground. Notre Dame lost their last 3 games of the season ATS. The Irish defense allowed 23.6 points per game on the season and should have trouble stopping the well balanced attack of the Buckeyes that got stronger and stronger as the season wore on. Look for Troy Smith to have a huge game and lead the Buckeyes to the easy win. WIN
Saturday, December 31, 2005:
Iowa State (+3) over Texas Christian: The Houston Bowl will be closely contested, but I gotta think the Cyclones will come through in this situation. Iowa State played a much tougher schedule and ended the season winning 5 of their last 6 ATS. Iowa State has the 14th ranked rush defense in the country and a +15 turn over margin. TCU is ranked and thus the favorite, but despite the ranking, the Cyclones are more disciplined and better in the special teams. Iowa State's RB Stevie Hicks will be the healthiest he has been all season and could be the difference today. PUSH
Friday, December 30, 2005:
Missouri (+3.5) over S. Carolina: The Tigers will be amped to win this game and senior QB Brad Smith will be looking to have a career day against the 82nd ranked run defense in the country. Missouri should take advantage as they have the 32nd ranked run offense and are well balanced as they pass the ball well too. Missouri is 16-4 ATS as a winning team when they are coming off of one loss. The Gamecocks would much rather be playing in another bowl and may not be as focused as the Tigers. South Carolina has gone 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as favorites in a non-conference match up. Hard to see the Gamecocks 307 yards a game on offense being enough to beat the Tigers. WIN
LSU (+7) over Miami: The Tigers will be without their starting QB, but the backup Flynn should be well prepared for the start as he is talented and has practiced as the starter for a month. LSU is a resilient team that has gone through a lot over the past year and should want this game more than the Hurricanes. LSU has gone 10-1 ATS when not favored by 16 or more coming off of one loss. The LSU defense should carry them as they gave up only 60 yards a game on the ground in their last 3 games and Miami will be playing without some offensive weapons. Miami is not as disciplined as LSU and should find it tough to cover this touchdown spread tonight. WIN
Thursday, December 29, 2005:
Georgia Tech (-8) over Utah: The Yellow Jackets are disappointed to be in this bowl game, but their talent is too superior over Utah for them not to win easily today. Utah is plagued by injuries as their starting QB Johnson is out, their top wide out in Madson is out, and their second best wide out in Hernandez is out. Utah will be forced to make plays in the air as Tech has the 12th ranked rush defense in the country, not to mention the 18th ranked scoring defense in points allowed. Georgia Tech played a much tougher schedule, higlighted by a win over Miami. This season, Georgia Tech has gone 6-0 ATS on the road after losing SU this season (lost their final game to SEC champs Georgia by 7 points). LOSS
Wednesday, December 28, 2005:
Boston College (-1.5) over Boise State: This is essentially a road game for Boston College as the Broncos will be playing on their home smurf turf. That should be too much of a factor as the Eagles were 3-2 ATS on the road and have outscored their opponents by an average of 3 this season. The Eagles played a much tougher schedule than Boise did and both teams lost 3 games. The Eagles have a well balanced attack as they rush for 214.5 a game and throw for 146 a game. The passing game has improved at the end of the season with their new QB Matt Ryan averaging 207 yards in the air the last 2 games. Boise State has a strong rushing attack, but hasn't faced a rushing defense this strong all season as the Eagles are ranked 16th in the country against the run. WIN
Tuesday, December 27, 2005:
Clemson (-9) over Colorado: This game involves two teams that are heading in opposite directions. The Buffalos got throttled in the Big 12 championship game and played worse and worse down the stretch as they lost their last 3 games in a row SU + ATS. They fired their head coach and their starting QB most likely is not going to play as Klatt has had dizzy spells after his concussion. Clemson caught fire at the end of the season as they won 5 of their last 6 game straight up and won 4 in a row ATS. Their QB had surgery at the end of the regular season, but Whitehurst is reported to have recovered 100%. Clemson's 4 losses this season were by a combined 14 points and they are easily the better team in this game. PUSH
Saturday, December 24, 2005:
Nevada (-2.5) over Central Florida: The Wolfpack of Nevada seems to be the better football team in this battle in Hawaii. Nevada is first in time of possession in all of college football, so C. Florida's chances will be limited. Nevada beat a ranked Fresno State team to get into this bowl and won 7 of their last 8 games overall, going 6-2 ATS. Nevada has a strong offense that is ranked 23rd in total offense and 24th in scoring offense. Central Florida only average .1 point more than they scored on average this season and 4 of their wins were by 1 score or less (playing in a weaker conference). LOSS
Friday, December 23, 2005:
Kansas (-3) over Houston: The Jayhawks are a senior dominated team that has been all business about playing in a bowl game and getting a win. Kansas has the third best defense in the Big 12 and ranked 19th in the nation. Houston has the 14th ranked offense in the nation, but Kansas' head coach Mangino knows how to defend a spread attack as he was a coach at Texas Tech. Houston has a porous defense that allows 25.6 points per game on the season. Kansas beat a tough Iowa State team to get into a bowl, when Iowa State was going for a Big 12 north title. The big edge here is in special teams for the Jayhawks and I think they will come away with the win here. WIN
Thursday, December 22, 2005:
Navy (-3) over Colorado State: Navy boasts the most powerful running game in the nation and should be able to run at will tonight against one of the worst run defenses. Navy has averaged a total of 368 yards a game on the ground and Colorado State has given up 209 yards a game on the ground. Navy has the more disciplined team and will be playing in front of a friendly crowd in San Diego. Navy was a nice 8-3 ATS this season, while the Rams lost their last 3 games ATS. Despite their 6-5 record, Colorado State has allowed more points than they have scored. This game started as a Pick em', but the wise guys saw a weak line and pounded Navy, moving the line to -3. I still think the line is weak and will give the 3 points. WIN
Wednesday, December 21, 2005:
UTEP/Toledo Over 60.5: Both of these teams sport two of the top offenses in college football and this bowl is known for high scoring contests. UTEP averages 33.5 points per game and have totaled 438 yards a game this season. Toledo averages 34.9 points per game and puts up 445 yards of offense a game. Both quarterbacks will be featured and should battle out a high scoring affair through the air. Toledo's Gradkowski has thrown 24 TD passes and UTEP's Palmer has thrown 28 TD passes. Both defenses are average at best and should find it tough to stop either team. In a game that the bowl people want to be high scoring, it's hard not to go with the over in this one. LOSS
Tuesday, December 20, 2005:
S. Mississippi (-16) over Arkansas St.: Arkansas State will be playing their first bowl game ever, while S. Miss will be playing in their 8th in 9 years. S. Miss. won this bowl last year by 21 points and in their last 3 games against Sun Belt opponents they have won by 21 or more. S. Miss has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home as the favorites. Arkansas State has gone 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and were blown out by Missouri and Army this season (teams comparable to S. Miss.). This season the Sun belt teams went 7-18 ATS against non-conference opponents and their teams are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 bowl appearances. Arkansas State is the most penalized team in the country and they are dealing with injury issues and off the field distractions. LOSS
Saturday, December 3, 2005:
Tulsa (-1.5) over Central Florida: Central Florida is a vastly improved team than they were last season when they were winless, but don't match-up well against Tulsa. Central Florida nearly lost to Rice in their final game of the season and will be without their star wide out Mike Walker. Tulsa has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road this season and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall. Tulsa has put up nearly 400 yards a game and Central Florida has been out gained in all yardage categories in 3 of the last 4 games. Central has been beat in yards through the air in 5 straight games. Heading into this championship game, Tulsa is riding their green wave of momentum and Central Florida has dropped it's guard over the past few weeks. It's hard to see Tulsa losing the conference title to a new comer to the league. WIN
Texas (-27) over Colorado: Many people probably see this line and think that in a conference championship game their is no way a team should win by 27. Well if their was ever the situation, this is it. Texas has averaged nearly 50 points a game this season and most likely had their letdown of the season at A&M last week. I like Young to rebound with a big game and lead Texas to the cover, just as they have in the last 5 meetings between these two. Colorado backed into this game as they lost their last 2 games SU in must win situations. Colorado's 5 conference wins were against 5 of the 6 worst teams in the Big 12. Colorado's has gotten worse on both sides of the ball as the season progressed. Gotta like the chances for a big blowout in this one. WIN
UCLA (+21.5) over USC: In rival game we always like to get points if we feel a team can compete with another team. UCLA may not be able to stop USC from scoring, but the other should hold true as UCLA boasts of one of the best offenses in the country. Olson has been steller this season as he has passed for 2,900 yards, thrown 25 TDs, and only has 3 interseptions all season. UCLA has gone 9-1 SU this season and has an offense that should put up 40 points as they have on average this season (only scored below 40 three times this season). USC does not have a potent defense and this has reflected in their inability to cover big spreads as they have gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. USC won by only 5 last season and should find it tough to blow out the Bruins here. LOSS
Thursday, December 1, 2005:
Akron/N. Illinois Under 53.5: The MAC conference has a national notoriety for high scoring games, thus leading me to believe the line is stacked too high in this contest. N. Illinois has the top ranked scoring defense in the league as they have allowed 22.1 points per game and has improved greatly as the season has gone on. Akron has the 3rd ranked defense in points allowed, giving up 23 a game and just 9.3 points per game in their last 3 overall. Akron also has the best defense in the MAC when it comes to yards allowed as they yield 322 a game (75.3 a game in their last 3 contests). Akron has gone under in 8 of their last 9 overall. With the earlier match-up being a shootout between these two, I think this adds to the inflation of the line and makes the under a good value here. LOSS
Saturday, November 26, 2005:
Florida/Florida State Under 49: Most people historically have a feeling that this game usually goes over due to high powered offenses. Truth is that 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone under and this year seems like a great opportunity for the under. Florida State has lost 3 of their 5 starting offensive linemen and will have trouble scoring as they have the last 2 games where they scored just 14 and 15 points. Florida State's defense is better than they have played this year and we think they will show up for this rivalry game. Florida's offense has struggled this season against decent defenses. The Gators have gone under the total in 7 of their 10 games this season thanks to their inept offense and occasional good defense. The Gators defense is good at home as they give up just 14.2 points per game. WIN
Nevada (+15.5) over Fresno State: This looks like a game that the books put a high spread on due to the people jumping on the Fresno bandwagon. This would be due to their near upset of USC last week. Now they travel to Nevada and are giving more than two touchdowns to a team that has a 7-3 record and will be playing for a share of the conference championship. Nevada has gone 4-1 ATS at home and their defense should show up as they play much better at home (they have given up just 60 yards a game on the ground in each of the last 3 games). Nevada has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and has a very potent offense that averages more yards a game than the very potent Fresno offense. We like the points the books are laying on this one. WIN
Georgia (-4) over Georgia Tech: The Bulldogs will be playing for a spot in the SEC title game and won't slip up against an overrated Georgia Tech team. Techs rating this week is due to their upset win over Miami last week. This may be why the point spread is set this low. Shockley is healthy for Georgia now and should be able to control the game while Georgia's potent defense (giving up just 13 points per game on the road this season) should shut down Tech enough to give Georgia a comfortable win. Georgia is the more talented team and play discipled football, so the home field advantage is not that great. The Bulldogs average 10 more points scored per game on offense and they give up less points when comparing the defenses. WIN
Friday, November 25, 2005:
Arizona (+9.5) over Arizona State: Arizona has shown a good deal of improvement this season, while on the other hand it looks like State has taken a step back. Arizona had a let down last game, but has gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and have put up an average of 31.7 points per game in their last 3. Arizona plays more disciplined and plays better on defense which are both factors in determining success on the road. Arizona State has lost off a bye week earlier this season and has gone just 2-4 against Arizona at home since 1992 which throws off home field advantage. Teams have gone 28-4 ATS since 1997 playing as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset loss as double digit home favorites in their previous game. WIN
Wednesday, November 23, 2005:
Western Michigan/N. Illinois Under 58.5: These teams will be playing in in-climate conditions in a very meaningful game for both teams. With snow projected in cold temperatures, we find it hard that this game will crack the 60 point total. There is a staggering situation where the under is usually a winner. Over the last 5 seasons the under has gone 62-14 (23-7 this season) where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 after one of the teams allowed 525 or more yards in their previous game. Three of the last four meetings between these two schools has been low scoring and the under for N. Illinois has gone 3-1-1 the last 5 weeks. Both teams should try to run the ball often and this chews up clock and allows the better chance for the under to cover. WIN
Tuesday, November 22, 2005:
Toledo (+7) over Bowling Green: The Rockets are looking to win their spot in the MAC title game with a win and this should offset Bowling Greens revenge hopes from last season. Toledo's defense is the best in the MAC as far as yards allowed and should be able to limit Omar Jacobs who may not be 100% yet. Teams are 27-4 ATS since 1997 as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 in a conference game off an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. Toledo has struggled the last 3 weeks scoring their average, but have moved the ball really well. Both teams have a great deal to play for and with the weather most likely being inclimate, points will be at a premium and we'll grab these. WIN
Saturday, November 19, 2005:
BYU (-11.5) over Utah: Normally laying this many points in a rivaly game is a no-no to me, but this situation looks too good to pass up. The Cougars are playing their best football in many years as they are on a solid 5-1 run, both SU and ATS (only loss coming to Notre Dame). BYU has dropped 3 straight in this rivalry and know that this is their chance at extracting some revenge on a weakened Utah team. Utah has lost their starting QB for the rest of season, as well as their top WR, in their game last week against New Mexico. Utah will try to run more, but BYU's run defense is ranked 3rd in the conference and should limit Utah. We like the Cougars to pour it on today. LOSS
Alabama-Birmingham (UAB) (+7.5) over Texas El Paso (UTEP): UAB has the worse record of these two, but could easily have the same as they have many close losses, including 2 games where they lost by just 1 point. UAB should be solid on the road as they hold an advantage in several key areas that are detrimental to winning on the road (penalized less and turn the ball over less). UAB also holds the advantage in average yards gained and allowed per game. UTEP may have a letdown with SMU still on the schedule for next week. Over the last 5 seasons in college football, teams have gone 47-10 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive SU losses against their opponent after winning 4 or more consecutive games SU. In other words, dogs usually cover when seeking revenge in this situation. WIN
New Mexico St./San Jose St. Under 57: This matchup consists of two of the worst teams in the country as one is 0-10 and the other is 1-8. With this being said, we think the lack of offense has been the problem and should continue to be in this matchup. New Mexico State has only averaged 13.8 points per game on the road this season, while San Jose State has only averaged 21.7 points per game on the season. Over the last 5 seasons in college football, the under has gone 59-14 in games where the first half total is between 28.5 to 31.5 after allowing 525 or more yards in a previous games for one of the teams. With as miserable as both teams are, it's hard to see this one propelling over this lofty total. WIN
Saturday, November 12, 2005:
Texas A&M/Oklahoma Under 55.5: This high total may have to do with Texas A&M putting up points in their games, but we think they have shot this one too high. Texas A&M can't stop the pass, but Oklahoma can't pass well so that will neutralize the high scoring aspect. Oklahoma has improved on defense giving up 19 points per game in the last 3 games while allowing just 30 yards on the ground in those contests. This is the highest lined total for an Oklahoma game since game 1 of the season when the line was 55.5 points and the total score ended up at 27. Out of the last 5 season, the Under has gone 57-13 where the lined first half total was 28.5-31.5 after allowing 525 or more yards in their previous game (Okalahoma fits this scenario). LOSS
Florida (-3.5) over S. Carolina: With the focus on Spurrier trying to beat his old team, the Gators are still focused on winning the SEC championship. Due to that, it would have to be a total letdown for them to blow this one knowing what it means. Florida has gone 13-0 against S. Carolina since 1992. The Gators are superior in all match up aspects of this game as well. Florida's defense should be able to limit the Cocks as they have allowed just 18.3 points per game and 100 rushing yards per game. With S.Carolina only rushing for an average of 79.2 per game, Dating back to 1992, S. Carolina has gone just 2-10 ATS in home games following winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. LOSS
Oregon/Washington St. Under 62.5: These two teams have played high scoring games most of the year, but we think this total is set too high because of that. Oregon has gone under in 4 of their last 6 games, This may be due to the fact that they allow so much yardage on the ground. Running the ball chews up clock. It also helps the under when the Washington State offense has been "not so sharp" the past few weeks. Over the last 5 seasons, the under is 32-2 where the total is between 56.5 and 63 in a game involving two good passing teams (average of 7.5-8.3 yards a pass play) after 7 plus games. With cool rainy weather forecasted, we like this one under the high total. LOSS
Saturday, November 5, 2005:
Iowa/Northwestern Under 60.5: The Wildcats have been running wild on the scoreboard all season, but we curtailed last week and we like them to be limited this week. Northwestern has gone under in 3 straight games after going over in all their previous ones, yet the oddsmakers still pump up the total for this one. Iowa has gone under in 5 of their last 6 overall and their defense is beginning to play better. Iowa has struggled to score on the road this season averaging just 14.3 points per game. The under is a perfect 28-0 the last 3 seasons when the total is between 56.5 and 63 in a game between two good passing teams (7.5 - 8.3 yards per pass) after 7 plus games into the season. WIN
Kansas (+1) over Nebraska: Kansas will be playing their second home game in a row and should be juiced up after winning their last game at home over Missouri. The Jayhawk's defense has been solid at home this season as they have allowed just 12.6 points per game. Kansas has had problems scoring, but should be able to get enough against a suspect defense for Nebraska that has given up an average of 28.7 points a game in their last 3 games and 27.5 all season on the road. Nebraska got a big win over rival Oklahoma and a let down is likely in the game following. The home team has gone 6-3 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the home field advantage is why we like Kansas to get the job done today. WIN
Ohio State (-34) over Illinois: This game has the makings of a big blow out as the Buckeyes return home after a successful road trip that saw them put up over 40 points in Indiana and Minnesota. Those teams had better defenses than the hapless Illini who gives up 40 points per game on the season. Ohio States offense has improved every game as Troy Smith has settled into the starting QB position nicely. The Buckeyes defense should hold down the Illini as they have given up just 15 a game at home and Illinois has scored just 13.3 points a game on the road. With some injury issues for the Illini as well, we like the Buckeyes to blow out Illinois in one of those games that make you say, "wow" when you see the final score. WIN
Saturday, October 29, 2005:
Washington/Arizona St. Under 61: Three of the last 4 meetings between these teams have gone under the total and we like the trend to continue here. Arizona State has fell apart since their loss to USC as they have now lost 3 games in a row, playing down to their level of competition. Arizona State has gone under in 3 of their last 4 games overall. Washington averages just 18 points per game on the road this season. With this stat and Arizona State playing down to their competitions level, we like the under for this contest, even if Arizona St. covers the 17 point spread. The Under is 36-5 the last 5 seasons (11-0 this year) when a total is posted between 56.5 and 63 after a team allowed 42 or more points in their last game, and they are playing a team where the total was at least 60 the previous week. LOSS
Texas Christian (-6.5) over San Diego St.: TCU has so many advantages on the stat sheet in this one, we will pick out those that seem to tell us why we like them to cover in this spot. In each teams last 3 games, TCU has average wins by a total of 25 points and San Diego State has gone 1-2 losing by an average of 5 points. TCU's quarterback Ballard has stepped up into the starting role and have played well, improving each week. The Aztec's are not well coached and should have trouble with a TCU team that has so many advantages over them. We won with San Diego State a few weeks ago, but they were out gained badly in the game against Utah. We'll lay the points with the Horned Frogs today. LOSS
Indiana/Michigan St. Under 63.5: Michigan State is a disheartened team ever since they botched the field goal attempt a game and a half ago against Ohio State. Their offense has not responded well since then (scoring just 14 against a bad N.W. team) and they should lack the same total they have achieved earlier this season. Teams have gone under the total in 54 of 66 games the last 5 seasons (15 of 20 this season) when the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 after allowing 525 or more yards in the previous game. Indiana hasn't seen a total line posted this high all season and should play defense well enough to compete with a disheartened Spartans team today, keeping the total score under this high mark. WIN
Central Michigan (+8) over Toledo: The Chippewas are a team that is looking to make their mark in the MAC conference today with a win over the Rockets at home. Their crowd should be ready for perhaps their biggest game to date for a long time. Central Michigan is playing great as they have won and covered the spread in 3 straight games and have won 4 of their last 5 games ATS when playing as dogs. Toledo does not have as strong of a program as they have had in recent years and the line may be this high due to their 6-1 SU record. Many of their games have been close and they have lost 4 games in a row ATS. This is a good spot for Central Michigan to keep this game close enough to cover, if not pull off the upset win outright. WIN
Thursday, October 27, 2005:
Boston College (+14) over Virginia Tech: Boston College has been a solid road team as they have gone 13-3 SU over the past two and a half years. ATS they have tallied 6 straight wins. Boston College is and well disciplined and can move the ball on offense as well as stop the run on defense. That gives an advantage to a team playing in a hostile enviroment. Virginia Tech has gained the support of the public by pounding Maryland on last Thursday, so we think the line is inflated too much in their favor. The Eagles have taken the last 5 meetings ATS and should make it 6 tonight. LOSS
Saturday, October 22, 2005:
UCLA (-9) over Oregon St.: Oregon State is coming off an upset win at previously undefeated California and will be hard pressed to repeat the task against the undefeated Bruins. Over the last 10 seasons, home favorites have gone 87-42 ATS (67.4%) off of a win against a conference rival and playing a team that won as an underdog the previous week. UCLA has won their last 3 games by a close margin and are due for a big win and this might be it. Oregon State may have a let down as they are coming off their biggest win of the year. UCLA has much more talent and should be able to handle a lesser Oregon State team. WIN
Fresno St./Idaho Under 58: The under is 35-5 over the last 5 years (10-0 this season) When the total is between 56.5 and 63 after a team allows 42 points or more in their last game and their opponent had a total of 60 points in their last game. Due to this trend and the fact that Idaho'soffense has managed a measly 17.3 ppg. Fresno has a very potent offense, but the total in this game is set even too high for them. Idaho should be able to limit Fresno, especially in the air, as Freson has thrown for an average of just 118.3 yards a game over the last 3 weeks. WIN
Arizona St./Stanford Under 62: The under is 28-3 over the last 5 seasons when the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 for a road team with an average rushing attack (140-190 rushing yards a game) playing against a team with a good rushing defense (allowing 100-140 rushing yards a game). Sanfords offense is not explosive and they should be limited this game. This favors the under as we think Stanford should be able to keep the ball away from Arizona State enough to keep them from blowing up the scoreboard. It may be a high scoring game, but we like it to stay under this high total. LOSS
Saturday, October 15, 2005:
Iowa (-14.5) over Indiana: The Hoosiers have had a great season so far, but they haven't faced a defense like Iowa's yet this season. Their only tough opponent was Wisconsin, where they went down in defeat by 17 points. This Iowa team looks to be a better team than the Badgers. The last two meetings in this series has gone to Iowa and this one should be the third. Iowa is 26-4 ATS in their last 30 games at home, including a 2-0 mark this season, where their defense is allowing just 9.3 points per game in their 3 contests. Iowa seems to have gotten their clunker games out of the way as they have won their last 2 games convincingly. WIN
Oregon State/California Under 59.5: These two teams can put up points on the scoreboard, but not as high as this total that is posted. Cal should do more scoring, but their defense can limit Oregon State enough as they have allowed just 16.7 points per game this season (7.7 at home). Oregon State has trouble running the ball and Cal can limit the pass. This is the highest total line ever posted for a meeting between these two schools. Here is the kicker stat for us: The Under is 34-5 over the last 5 seasons in college football (9-0 this season) when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 for a team that allowed 42 points or more the last game, playing a team where the total points scored was more than 60 in their last game. WIN
San Diego St. (+10) over Utah: The Aztecs seem to be a much undervalued team in this contest, while the Utes continue to be overvalued. The Aztecs turn the ball over less, are penalized less, and are solid on special teams. The Aztecs suffered a tough loss to UNLV last week and should be fired up to get revenge on a Utah team that pounded them last season. Utah made a BCS game last season, but have not performed anywhere near that team this season so far. Utah has gone 0-4-2 ATS this season. Their problem comes with their play in the 4th quarter as they have been outscored 32-6 over the last 2 games in that period. Utah has problems stopping the run as they are allowing163.7 yards per game on the ground and that should keep the Aztecs close enough to cover tonight. WIN
Thursday, October 13, 2005:
Clemson (+5) over N. Carolina St.: The Tigers have played close games all season long and are in a position to pull off the upset tonight as they have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Wolfpack. N.C. State is coming off an emotional win last Thursday at Georgia Tech and may have a let down against a Clemson team with a losing record. Clemson has played in one score games all season long and 5 points looks good to us. NC St. is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 at home and the road team has covered in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two. Clemson is well disciplined and doesn't turn the ball over often, which are keys to playing well on the road. I like the possibility for an upset here. WIN
Saturday, October 8, 2005:
Oklahoma (+14) over Texas: The Longhorns are the 2nd ranked team in the country and have received all the talk this week about blowing out the Sooners. With all the media hype, I think the line in this one is inflated too much towards Texas. Stoops have stymied Texas over the last 5 meetings winning them all SU and ATS. His record is 13-4 ATS vs. teams that average 37 + points per game since he has been the coach at Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming off a solid win versus Kansas State and Peterson should be healthy. Texas is susceptible to the run and coach Brown is 1-8 ATS when playing on a neutral field where the posted total lin is between 49.5 and 56. LOSS
Rice/E. Carolina Under 58.5: Rice is a decent team offensively this season (19 ppg), but no where near where they have been in past seasons. East Carolina is not a jugernot on offense either as they average just 20 ppg so far this season. Their defense is good enough to keep Rice off the board enough to cause this one to go under. In a game against W.V., the Pirates and Mountaineers totaled just 35 points. ECU has gone under in their last 2 games and should dictate enough flow of the game to keep this one under the high total. Over the last 5 season in college football, the under is 33-3 when the first half total posted is between 28.5 to 31.5 after allowing 8 or more pass yrds/att. in their last game, while playing a team that allowed at least 9 passing yrds/att in their last game. LOSS
Ohio State/Penn State Over 41: This prime time match-up features two good defenses, but enough play makers to shoot this game over the total. Penn States defense has yet to face a potent offense like the Buckeyes. Penn State has averaged a total score of 54 points in the last 3 games they have played. Their offense has been the catylist as they have averaged 457 yards per game so far this season. The offenses in this one should be enough to push this one over the total. Over the last 5 season, teams have gone over in 31 of the 34 games after gaining 450 yards in their previous 2 games and returning at least 8 starter on offense for the next game. LOSS
Saturday, October 1, 2005:
Michigan/Michigan State Over 55.5: These teams meet in a rivalry game where the offenses should be explosive. The Wolverines defense has been suspect since the start of the season and the Spartans should take advantage as they have gone over the total in 9 of their last 10 games overall dating back to last season. The Spartans have averaged a total of 49 points a game this season, with the total score averaging 69 points. Over the last 5 seasons, the over has gone a remarkable 28-2 when a team has 450+ yards in 2 straight games and has at least 8 starters on offense returning for the game. WIN: This one shoots over the total as 65 points are scored in this wild one.
Colorado (-3) over Oklahoma State: The Buffalos should be able to take advantage of an overrated Cowboys team. Oklahoma State has managed 19 points a game on offense in their non-conference schedule. That would be good if they played power houses, but they played cupcake teams. In those games they passed for an average of just 126.7 yards. The Buffalos are tough on defense allowing just 2.6 yards a carry this season, so they will force the Cowboys to pass (and we've already seen how bad they are in the air). The Buffalos only loss was to a good Miami team and they should come through with a conference win today. WIN: The Buffalos expose the Cowboys by a tune of 34-0!
Boston College (-38) over Ball State: This game has blow out written all over it and we will jump on the bandwagon. Ball State has been decimated with suspensions and will be without those 11 players again this week. This is bad news as they face a ranked B.C. that will look to blow out the Cardinals as they did earlier this season when Army came to visit. The Eagles are solid as they have given up just 12.8 ppg so far this season and have the ability to beat teams on the ground and in the air on offense. Ball State may not score, but if they do it shouldn't be more than the 11 ppg they have scored so far this season. With that being said, it looks like B.C. should put up 50. PUSH: B.C. shuts out the Cardinal 38-0 for the push.
