Past College Football Top Notch Pick Results
Results from the 2004 College Football Season:
Top Notch Picks record: 47-33-2 59%
Game of the Week picks: 7-5-1 58%
Tuesday, January 4, 2004:
Oklahoma (+1) over USC: We will lean on the side of the Sooners in this national championship as we feel they have the best chance of winning. USC has played a lighter schedule than Oklahoma and played in more close games. 4 of USC's games were decided by 1 score and they very easily could have lost in week 1 to Virginia Tech. Oklahoma on the other hand had 2 games decided by just 1 score and they were in hostile environments. Oklahoma's defense is what sways the tide as they have solved their problem in the secondary and have allowed just 6 points total in their last 3 games. Expect them to get after Leinart as they will attack USC weakness in the offensive line. Since 2000, teams are 7-0 ATS in bowl games as PK->2.5 point dogs after winning ATS at home. Since 1985, Okalahoma is 8-1 ATS as dogs after 4 straight wins. Loss: Turnovers doom the Sooners as they lose big.
Monday, January 3, 2004:
Virginia Tech (+6.5) over Auburn: The Hokies are playing once again as dogs in a big game. Virginia Tech could very easily be undefeated this season with 2 close losses. Auburn is undefeated, but has received all the hype and attention which makes us lean towards V. Tech. Auburn has gone just 2-9 ATS as favorites after losing + going over since 1985 and 1-9 ATS in non-conference games after losing + going over. Virginia Tech is 16-3 (winning 5 straight) ATS in their last 19 as dogs after winning SU + ATS (that was at Miami). The Hokies are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games after 2 wins SU + ATS and have won 7 non-conference games in a row after 2 straight wins. Win: Virginia Tech losses by just 3 as they blow opportunities to win outright, but do cover the spread.
Saturday, January 1, 2004:
Georgia/Wisconsin Under 40.5: These two teams have 2 of the best defenses in the nation and should be able to limit each other on points in this game. Georgia has the 14th ranked defense in the nation allowing a measly 16 points per game. Georgia has gone under in 7 of their 8 games favored in a bowl following a win since 1985. Wisconsin has gone under in 10 of 12 games as dogs after losing SU + ATS and in 8 of their last 9 as dogs after a loss. Since 1985, teams have gone under in 8 of the 9 bowl games played as dogs after 2 straight losses on the road. Wisconsin's defense has allowed just 14.6 points per games this season. Loss: This game barely goes over in the fourth quarter.
Florida St./West Virginia Under 45.5: This total seems jacked up too high for a Seminoles defense that has once again carried their team this season. Florida St. has gone under in 7 of their 8 January bowl games after a home game since 1985. Florida State has also gone under in 7 straight as favorites in a Bowl game following a home game, 7 of their last 8 on the road in a non-conference game, and 12 of their last 13 as road favorites since last season. Florida State has gone under in 8 straight games overall as well. West Virginia is primarily a running team, so the clock usually runs in their games. Teams have gone 0-6 as dogs the Mountaineer's position as dogs since last season in the post season. Loss: This game goes over due to lack of defense by West Virginia.
LSU/Iowa Under 42: Yet again we find a game on the schedule that should grab the green with a low scoring game. LSU is a team that is led by their defense (ranked 3rd in the nation this season) and Iowa is also led by a solid defense. LSU has gone under in 9 of their last 10 games on the road following 3 straight wins. Tames have gone under in 13 of the 16 bowl games in January with a spread of 3->6.5 after winning ATS + going over on the road (LSU's position). Iowa has gone under in 7 of their last 8 following 3 straight wins ATS + SU. Teams have gone under in 22 of the 31 games played in a bowl with a 3->6.5 point spread after 2 wins ATS since the 2000 season. Loss: Two touchdowns in the last minute help this one over.
Friday, December 31, 2004:
Alabama/Minnesota Under 48.5: This high total may be due to Minnesota's high scoring attack early in the season, but Alabama is sturdy defensively. Alabama has gone under in 7 straight games after winning ATS at home and were under in 7 of 9 games on the season. They should be able to run the clock on the Gophers who are weak on run D. Teams have gone under in 10 of 11 games as favorites in bowl games after winning ATS + going under at home (since 2000). Teams have gone under in all 6 bowl games since last season as dogs after 3 losses ATS (Minnesota's position). With possible high wind and poor weather, we like the teams to run enough to carry this one under. Win: This one goes under easily by 12 points.
Louisville/Boise St. Under 80: This high total is due to these teams having explosive offenses, but the defenses should be just good enough to keep this one under the total. Teams have gone under in 22 of the 27 bowl games played as favorites after 4 wins in a row SU + ATS since 1985 (Louisville's position). Teams have also gone under in 11 of the 12 games as favorites in bowls after 4 wins ATS since the 2000 season. Teams have gone under in 12 of the 15 bowl games played as dogs after 6 wins since 2000 (Boise St. position). Both of these teams can run the ball and if one get's a big enough lead, they will be able to eat clock. The total was set above 70 one time each for these teams this season and they both fell under the total. Loss: This one goes over the high total in the final minutes of the game by just 4 points.
Thursday, December 30, 2004:
Texas Tech/California Under 65: This high total seems to appear too high for our liking. Califonia will be playing very short handed at the recevier spot, so they will look to run that much more than they usually do. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and should be able to cotrol the clock and keep the ball away from Texas Tech's offense. Tech can put up a lot of points, but will be playing a much better defense than they are used to. While Tech has scored a lot, they turn the ball over as well. This season, the under was 18-4 for teams playing on the road in non-conference games after a home game. California has gone under in their last 6 games as favorites after 2 wins and since 2000, teams have gone under in all 7 games as 10->13.5 point favorites in non-conference after losing ATS on the road (Cal's position tonight). Loss: Cal's defense stays home as Tech rolls.
Wednesday, December 29, 2004:
Ohio State (+4) over Oklahoma State: The Buckeye's have turned their season around since their early woes and should be able to cover tonight if not win it outright. This line has moved since it was announced that Zwick would be starting for the injured Troy Smith. All reports are that Zwick has had a great week of practice and did lead this team to a 3-0 start this season. The run game for Oklahoma State is their bread and butter, but so is the run defense for Ohio State. Oklahoma State finished the season in a 1-3 tailspin and it will be tough to get out of it tonight as they have given up an incredible 478 yards in their past 3 games. Teams have gone 18-4 ATS this season as dogs after winning SU + ATS + going over (Ohio St.'s position). Win: The Buckeye's barrel over the Cowboys in a blow out win!
Tuesday, December 28, 2004:
Notre Dame/Oregon St. Under 50: The Irish should have a tough time with Oregon St. as they there seems to be a tendency that this game will go under the total. In bowl games since 1985 when a team is playing after 2 straight losses, the under has won 71% of the time (Notre Dame has lost 2 straight). The Irish have gone under in 9 of their 11 games since 2000 after losing SU + ATS. Teams have gone under in 10 of the 11 games since 1985 as 3->6.5 point dogs in the post season after 2 losses in a row SU + ATS. Oregon State has allowed just 312 yards a game this season, so the Irish will find it tough to move at will. Teams have gone under in 11 of the 12 games since 2000 as favorites in a bowl game after 4 straight wins ATS (Oregon St.'s position). Loss: This one goes over in the final minutes of the game.
Monday, December 27, 2004:
Connecticut/Toledo Under 66: This line was originally set at 69 but has moved down due to some key injuries. We don't think it has moved down enough. U Conn will have their star defensive end (King) for the first time since the beginning of the season when they started by going under in their first 4 games. U Conn has not seen a total for their games set higher than 56.5 all season. Teams playing as road dogs in non-conference games after winning SU + ATS + going over have gone under in 14 of the 18 games since 1985. Toledo's star QB will be playing after surgury and they will be without their star running back. Toledo's gone under in 5 of their last 6 games and teams have gone under in all 8 games as home favorites of 3->6.5 in post season games after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS. Win: This one easily falls under as Toledo has problems putting points on the board.
Wednesday, December 22, 2004:
Bowling Green (-3) over Memphis: Bowling Green is out to represent the MAC strong and should be able to find success through the air as they are ranked 2nd in the nation in passing offense led by Omar Jacobs who has a 36 to 3 TD to INT Ratio. MAC teams have won 8 of their last 9 bowl games and Bowling Green is one of the best teams (if not the best) team in the MAC despite not winning their conference. Memphis is ranked a poor 111th on pass defense and haven't been sharp against the run either. Memphis can run the ball, but has a tendency to turn it over often. Bowling Green has averaged 21 points more a game than opponents this season and should be able to cover the spread tonight despite the wet conditions. Win: Bowling Green handles Memphis easily.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004:
Syracuse/Georgia Tech Under 43.5: Georgia Tech is favored in this game and we like the chances of this game going under with them controlling the pace. Tech relies on their defense to win games and should control Syracuse enough to keep this one under the total. Syracuse has gone under in 6 straight games as dogs in non-conference games after a win ATS. For Syracuse, the under is 13-4-1 since 2000 after winning ATS. Tech has gone under in 9 straight games after losing + going under since the 2000 season and have gone under in 11 straight games after an under dating back to last season. The last meeting between these teams resulted in just 20 points and this game should be no different. Loss: Syracuse's defense doesn't show up.
Tuesday, December 14, 2004:
North Texas (+5) over Southern Mississippi: North Texas has had ample time to prepare for this bowl game and get healed, while Southern Miss. is still healing up 10 days after a tough game against Cal. The rushing attack for N. Texas led by Thomas has been stellar all season and they should find success against a weak S. Miss. rush defense (83rd in the country) that is missing a few starters. S. Miss tailspinned at the end of the year and went 1-4 SU while N. Texas has won 8 in row SU + ATS. The Mean Green should be comfortable in New Orleans as this is their 4 straight trip to this bowl. N. Texas is 9-0 ATS all time after 4 straight wins and since 2000 they have gone 7-0 ATS after 3 wins in a row SU + ATS. S. Miss. will have exams on the brain as they test the next day and won't be able to prepare for a tough N. Texas team. Loss: N. Texas blows their opportunities and has to pass trailing from the start.
Saturday, December 4, 2004:
Virginia Tech (+7) over Miami: Both teams are in a position to win the ACC (or part of it) with a win and we will take the points in this tight situation. Miami has gone just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as 7->9.5 point favorites after a win ATS. Miami has also lost 6 in a row ATS as home favorites following a game at home. Virginia Tech has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road game and are playing some of the best football in the country since the beginning of the season. Virginia Tech has gone 20-4 ATS (winning 5 in a row) as road dogs after a win ATS and 8-1 ATS since last season in a game following an under. Win: Tech pulls off the upset as they beat Miami to win the ACC.
Navy (-12.5) over Army: The past two seasons Navy has been the superior team in this rivalry (winning by 28 and 40 points) and are once again this season. Teams playing in Navy's position of 10->13.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS at home have gone 10-0-1 ATS since 1990. Army has gone 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on the road in non-conference games after 2 losses, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 on the road after 3 losses, and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games overall. Navy's offense should be able to score at will against the worst ranked defense in total yardage this season in Division I (118th out of 118). Win: Navy dominates this rivalry again with a big win.
U.S.C./UCLA Over 59: This total is set high, but we think that it isn't high enough as both these teams have potent offenses as they are ranked 16th and 18th in the nation. UCLA has gone over in 7 straight games as dogs after winning and in 7 of their last 8 games at home in conference after winning SU + ATS + on the road. Don't expect UCLA to stop USC as they are ranked 105th in total defense. USC has gone over in 9 in a row as road favorites after a home game and in 11 of their last 12 games as road favorites in conference. This season, teams have gone over in all 7 games they have played with a 21->23.5 point spread after 2 straight wins. Loss: Field goals are the only thing that keeps the game from going over.
Saturday, November 27, 2004:
Tennessee (-23) over Kentucky: The Vols should be well prepared to make a bowl bid against the lowly Wildcats today. Kentucky has won and covered the spread in 5 straight home contests between these two teams. Tennessee has won 11 games in a row ATS as favorites after losing ATS and going over. Kentucky has dropped 6 straight meetings ATS against Tennessee on the road. Kentucky is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games on the road following 2 home games. Kentucky has been horrible on the road this season averaging just 5 points a game. We like Tennessee big today. Loss: Tennessee is lucky to win as defense is horrible.
Georgia Tech/Georgia Under 42.5: These teams are know for their defensive play and this one should be low scoring enough to go under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings in Georgia has gone under the total. Georgia Tech has gone under in 8 straight game following a loss SU + ATS + an under, under in 12 straight games following an under, and in 3 straight games overall. Georgia has gone under in 6 of the 9 games they have played this season, as their defense has been able to shut opponents down. Teams have gone under in 10 of the 12 games played as home favorites of 14->15.5 after 2 road games since 2000 (Georgia is in this position). Win: These teams combine for just 35 point as this falls under easily.
Oklahoma St./Texas Tech Over 67.5: These teams usually play in shoot out games and we see this season being no different. The past 5 meeting between these two have gone over. Oklahoma State has gone over in 10 straight games after winning SU + ATS and in 7 straight games following a win ATS. Texas Tech has gone over in 8 of their last 9 games as favorites after losing on the road. Since 1985, teams playing in division games with a 3->6.5 point spread after losing SU + ATS + going under have gone over in 8 of the 9 games. Since 2000, teams playing as 3->6.5 point favorites in division games after losing SU + ATS have gone over in all 8 of those games (Texas Tech is in that position today). Loss: Defense's surprisingly steal the show.
Friday, November 26, 2004:
LSU/Arkansas Under 48: The total posted for this game is a lofty 48 points that we think will be hard to reach. LSU has gone under in all 7 games in team history as road favorites after 3 straight wins. LSU has also gone under in 6 straight games as road favorites in division games and in 8 straight on the road after 2 home games. Arkansas is also in a spot where the under has succeeded historically for them. Arkansas has gone under in 9 of their 10 games at home after winning on the road and in 7 of their last 8 at home with a spread of 3->6.5. Loss: High scoring first half pushes this one over the total.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004:
Toledo (+4.5) over Bowling Green: The Rockets are playing for a spot in the MAC championship game and we like getting point at home in this position. Bowling Green has gone just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 as road favorites of 3->6.5 points in conference games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as road favorites of 3->6.5 after winning ATS. Toledo has gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home, 6-0 ATS as home dogs after a win ATS, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home in conference after a road game. Toledo has also won 7 in a row ATS as home dogs in conference games after a game on the road. Toledo's defense should be able to stop Bowling Green enough to cover the spread and possibly win it outright. Win: Toledo dominates the second half after being down 20 to come back and win outright by 8.
Saturday, November 20, 2004:
Oklahoma (-36) over Baylor: The Sooners know they are on the edge of the national championship picture and will do their best to run up the score on Baylor. Baylor pulled off an upset of Texas A&M a few weeks ago, but Okalahoma will not be looking ahead. Oklahoma has gone 8-1 ATS as road favorites of 30 or more points after a win and 8-1 ATS as road favorites in conference when favored by 30 or more points. Baylor has gone just 1-7 as 30+ point dogs after losing on the road. Baylor has lost 6 in a row ATS at home after 2 straight road losses and 6 in a row as home dogs of 30 or more points. Baylor may be playing with their back up QB, which makes us like this pick even more. Loss: A one point loss as Okalahoma wins by 35.
Auburn/Alabama Over 37: This big rivalry will take place in a situation where the scoring should be enough to push this one over the total. Auburn is one of the nations hottest teams. When teams play as road favorites of 10->13.5 points after winning 9 straight, they have gone over in all 7 games since 1985. Teams have gone over in 13 of the 16 games played in division after 2 wins ATS this season (Auburn's situation). Alabama has gone over in all 6 games they have played since the 2000 season as dogs after losing SU + ATS. Since 2000, teams have gone over in all 8 games at home in division after losing ATS + under and teams have gone over in 7 of the 8 games played at home in division after going under on the road (Alabama is playing in these conditions). Loss: This one falls under by just 3 points.
Thursday, November 18, 2004:
Maryland/Virginia Tech Over 39: Virginia Tech's offense has proved potent of late as they have put up an average of 44 points in their last 3 games. The over for Virginia Tech has gone 8-0-1 as home favorites after winning on the road and 7-1-1 as home favorites in conference after 5 wins in a row. Teams playing in Virginia Tech's position of home favorites of 10->13.5 points after 2 straight wins on the road have gone over in 16 of 20 games since 1985. Maryland has gone over in all 7 games in team history played on the road after a previous road game. This season, teams in Maryland's position of 10->13.5 point dogs after losing ATS on the road have gone over in 7 of those 8 games. Marylands offense should be healed enough to put enough points on the board to push this one over, with Virginia Tech setting the pace with their offense. Win: Virginia Tech pounds Maryland as this one goes over in the first half!
Saturday, November 13, 2004:
Syracuse/Temple Under 54.5: The last 4 meetings between these two teams have gone under the total and we like this to be the fifth with cool and damp conditions expected. The under for Syracuse has gone 6-0-1 in their last 7 games on the road in conference after 2 home games, 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after winning SU + ATS, and 7-1-1 in their last 9 on the road after 2 wins ATS. The Orangemen have also gone under in 7 straight games as road favorites after winning SU + ATS. Teams in Temple's position have historically gone under the total. The under is 24-9-1 for teams playing after 6 straight loss since 1985 and 7-1 for teams playing as home dogs in conference after 3 straight road games. Loss: This one goes over the total by just 3.5 points.
Texas (-22) at Kansas: Texas should be able to run up a big score against a struggling Kansas team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games. Texas has blown out their last 3 opponents, including the likes of Texas Tech and Okalahoma State. Texas has covered in their last 4 meetings ATS and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games after going over at home. Kansas has gone just 1-10 ATS in conference games as 21->23.5 point dogs, 0-8 ATS in conference games as 21->23.5 point dogs since 2000, and 0-7 ATS as home dogs in conference games after a loss ATS since 2000. Look for Benson and the Longhorn rushing attack to dominate another team. Loss: Texas lays an egg, escapes with a win.
Akron (+2) at Ohio: I am kind of puzzled as to why Akron is coming into this game as dogs. They control their own destiny as far as division champs in their conference and have a great deal to play for. Only a let down should keep them from winning this game. The Zips come into this game having won 4 games in a row ATS and SU. Ohio is headed in the opposite direction as they have dropped 4 in a row ATS. Akron has momentum, motivation, and better talent. Akron has improve each week of the season, while the Bobcats seem to be tail spinning. Charlie Frye, Akron's QB, may be the most underrated passer in college football and he is catching his stride towards the end of the season. Win: Zip's keep their conference championship hopes alive with a 12 point win.
Friday, November 12, 2004:
Hawaii/Fresno St. Over 65.5: These two teams have a tendency for high scoring as Hawaii is ranked 26th on offense and 111th on defense. Fresno St. has a strong defense, but has an offense that can put points on the board. Hawaii has gone over in 10 of their last 11 as dogs after winning ATS. Hawaii has also gone over 6 straight after winning ATS. Fresno State has gone over in 9 of 11 since 2000 after winning SU + ATS. Since the 2000 season, teams have gone over in 9 of the 10 games played as home favorites of 17->19.5 in conference after 2 straight wins SU + ATS. Hawaii had a poor offensive performance their last time on national TV, but we think they will score enough tonight to help this one get over. Win: This one soars over the total early in the 4th as Fresno blows out Hawaii!
Thursday, November 11, 2004:
N.C. State (+7) over Florida St.: The Wolfpack is desperate for a win at home and should be very competitive in tonight's game thanks to their defense which is ranked 2nd in the nation. N.C. State's blitzing schemes should cause enough headaches for Wyatt Sexton. The Wolfpack have gone 7-0 ATS as dogs after a loss since 2000 and 7-0 ATS as dogs after going under at home since 1985. Since 2000, teams in college football have gone 13-4-1 ATS as home dogs of 7->9.5 after 3 losses ATS. This season, teams are 10-1 ATS as home dogs in conference games after 2 losses SU + ATS and 7-1 ATS as home dogs after 3 straight losses ATS. Florida State has not impressed in recent weeks and should be in for a fight tonight with N.C. State's pride on the line. Push: N.C. State's turnover in their on territory costs them the game and a cover.
Saturday, November 6, 2004:
Kansas St./Missouri Over 50: These teams are playing in situations that favor a shoot out. Kansas St. has average a total of just under 60 total points a game this season and Missouri is a much better offensive team at home averaging 33.5 points a game. Kansas State has gone over in all 5 games this season with totals of 53 points or less. Missouri has gone over in 8 of their last 9 after losing SU + ATS. Since 1985, teams playing at home in a 3->6.5 point spread game in division after 2 under has gone over in all 8 games. Teams playing as home favorites in division games after 2 losses have gone over in 13 of 16 in that same time span. Since 2000, teams have gone over in 15 of the 18 games played at home in division after 2 unders. Win: This one soars past the total as Kansas St. wins big.
Temple (+28) over West Virginia: West Virginia has had a potent offense this season, but may end up playing this game without their superstar wide out Chris Henry. Temple has played tough in West Virginia as they have taken the last 5 games ATS. Temple has gone a nice 8-1 ATS as road dogs in conference after 2 wins ATS. Temple has lost 4 straight in a row, and when playing as dogs in that situation, they have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS. Since 2000, teams playing in West Virginia's position of 27->29.5 point favorites in a conference game after a win SU but loss ATS has lost all 6 contests ATS. Temple should be able to put up enough points to cover this high spread. Win: Temple scores 21 to lose by 21 making our pick win.
Nebraska/Iowa St. Over 41: These teams are meeting in a game where the statistics seem to favor the over. This is the lowest point total posted for these two in their last 10 meetings. Nebraska has averaged a total of 54 points in their games this season, mostly due to them giving up a whopping 44 points a game on the road. Nebraska has gone over in 8 straight games in division on the road after a win since 1998. Iowa State is playing in a position where teams have historically gone over since 1985. When a team is a home dog of 3->6.5 in a division game after winning ATS at home, the over has gone a nice 7-1. We think both teams will put enough points up to clip the total in this one. Win: Iowa States offense crumbles the Nebraska defense as this goes over easily.
San Diego St./BYU Under 44: San Diego State is a good defensive team and BYU should play down enough to keep this one under the total. The Under for the Aztecs has gone 6-0 in road games with a spread of 7->9.5, 11-1 in road games after losing SU + ATS, and 9-1 in their last 10 games on the road against a conference opponent. Teams playing in their situation of road dogs after 5 straight losses have gone under in 17 of the 20 games since 1985. BYU has gone under in all 8 games they have played in their history as home favorites of 7->9.5 points after a road game. The Cougers have also gone under in all 9 games they have played at home in conference with a 7->9.5 point spread. Loss: San Diego St. defense lets down in the second half.
Mississippi St. (+17.5) over Alabama: Mississippi State is playing their best football of the season after winning 2 games in a row and will try to challenge Alabama in tonight's contest. Mississippi State has gone 7-1 ATS as road dogs of 17->19.5 points. Mississippi St. has played Alabama tough in the past as they have taken 4 of the last 5 contests ATS at Alabama. Alabama has gone just 1-8 ATS as home favorites in conference games after 2 wins ATS and 1-9-1 ATS at home in conference after a loss (dating back to 2000). Since 2000, teams playing as home favorites of 17->19.5 points after losing SU + winning ATS on the road have gone a blank 0-8 ATS. Win: Mississippi St. hangs close all game and covers.
Friday, November 5, 2004:
Akron (+8.5) over Marshall: Akron has played very well in recent weeks, going 4-1 in conference and this may be the biggest game in their history. Akron has gone 8-1-1 ATS as home dogs in division games in their history (including 3-0 against Marshall). Akron has also won 6 straight games ATS as when the spread is 7->9.5 points. Since 2000, teams playing as home dogs in division games after winning ATS at home have gone 17-6 ATS. This season teams have gone 7-1 ATS in division games after winning SU + ATS in 2 games straight. (Akron's position). Marshall is in the position of road favorites of 7->9.5 in a division game after winning 4 straight. Teams playing in that position since 1985 have gone just 1-7 ATS. We like the Zips to keep pace with Marshall. Win: Akron rallies with 17 points in the final minutes to win the game outright!
Thursday, November 4, 2004:
Louisville/Memphis Over 60.5: The Cardinals come into tonight's contest boasting of the best rated offenses in the country and Memphis has one of the best offenses in their conference. Memphis has scored 40 points or more in 4 of their 7 games this season and their pass defense has been suspect allowing 270 yards a game in the air. Louisville offense averages 507 yards a game. The Cardinals have gone over in 8 of their 9 games in their history on the road in conference after a win. Teams playing as road favorites of 10->13.5 after winning ATS + going under have gone over in 11 of the 13 games since the year 2000. We expect a shootout tonight in this heated rivalry game. Win: This game flys over the total in the 1st half!
Saturday, October 30, 2004:
Iowa (-11) over Illinois: Iowa needs this win in a big way to stay in contention for the Big Ten title and should be focused enough to roll past Illinois. Iowa has won 7 straight ATS in conference games after going under on the road and are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites. Iowa is also a nice 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games after winning ATS on the road. Illinois has gone a dismal 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after 5 losses in a row and are 0-6 ATS in conference games after 4 straight losses. Iowa has won by 31 points in each of the last 2 meetings between these teams and today should be no different. Loss: Garbage TD in final minute causes loss by 1 point ATS.
Arizona (+7.5) over Oregon State: Oregon State is on the road and will be in a tough spot for them to cover. Oregon State has gone just 1-8 ATS in their history on the road in a conference game after winning 2 games in a row SU + ATS. Arizona is in a good spot as they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as 7->9.5 point dogs after losing SU + ATS. Since 2000, teams playing in Arizona's position of home dogs of 7->9.5 points after losing 2 games in a row SU + ATS have gone a nice 21-8-2 ATS. Even this season, teams playing as home dogs in conference games after 3 straight losses have gone a good 10-2 ATS. We like Arizona to keep it close in this one. Loss: Arizona losses by 2 TD's and 6 points ATS.
Rice (-1) over Tulsa: Rice always seems to be one of the most underrated teams in the country and we think they are in a good spot to win tonight. Rice is 7-0 ATS after 2 road games and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a loss. Tulsa has gone 0-7 ATS in PK->2.5 point games in conference after losing SU + ATS and are just 3-12 ATS as home dogs after 3 straight losses. Rice should eat Tulsa alive on the ground as they rush for 328 yards a game and Tulsa gives up over 200 yards a game on the ground. Rice has been competitive in all of their games this season but 2 and Tulsa has been blown out 4 times. We will take the Owls on the road tonight. Loss: Rice's defense is too porous to keep up with Tulsa.
Utah/San Diego St. Under 42.5: Utah's offense has been a scoring machine this season, but we think San Diego St. plays well enough on defense to keep this one under the total. Utah has gone under in 7 of their 8 games as favorites in conference after winning ATS at home and in 10 straight on the road after a win. This season in college football, teams have gone under in 15 of the 18 games when playing as favorites after 2 home games. San Diego State has gone under in 10 of their last 11 as dogs after losing ATS on the road and since 1985, teams playing as 17->19.5 point dogs in conference after 4 straight losses have gone under in 8 of the 9 games. Loss: Special teams and defensive scores and a whole lot more spoil this one.
Thursday, October 28, 2004:
Georgia Tech (+5.5) over Virginia Tech: This is a game where the home dog has a great chance of pulling off the upset. The Yellow Jackets defense should be able to match that of the Hokies and keep this game close. Virginia Tech has gone 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites in a conference game after a home game and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as favorites in conference games after winning 3 straight. Georgia Tech has gone 11-3 ATS since 1985 playing as home dogs after 2 straight wins and have won 5 straight ATS playing as 3->6.5 point dogs after 2 wins. The Yellow Jackets have knocked off two top 25 teams already this season and have a good chance of making it 3 tonight. Loss: Georgia Tech collapses and loses an 8-point 4th quarter lead.
Saturday, October 23, 2004:
San Diego St./New Mexico Under 40.5: There are numerous trends that say this should go under the total. For San Diego St., the under is 7-0 when playing as 3->6.5 point dogs after losing SU + ATS, 11-1 in their last 12 on the road after losing SU + ATS, and 10-1 in their last 11 on the road in conference after a loss. The Aztecs have also gone under in 8 straight on the road with a 3->6.5 point spread. New Mexico has gone under in 9 of their last 11 conference games after winning SU + ATS. Since 2000, teams playing in New Mexico's position of home favorites of 3->6.5 points after winning SU + ATS and going over on the road have gone under in 16 of the 20 games. Win: This one cruises under the total Win: This one cruises under easily as both teams combine for just 28 points.
Georgia/Arkansas Under 50: These teams have gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings and we think this will be no different. For the Bulldogs, the under has gone 6-0 in their history when they play as 7->9.5 point favorites in conference games and 12-3 since 2000 when playing in conference as favorites after a win. For Arkansas, the under has gone 7-1 in their last 8 at home in conference play after an over and they have gone under in 5 straight games playing at home after a game on the road. With a chance of rain and possible soggy field, we like the under. Win: This falls under the total as Arkansas plays Georgia tough and it goes under by 14 points.
Friday, October 22, 2004:
Colorado St (-4.5) over Wyoming: Colorado State will look for revenge over last years defeat to Wyoming and for the damaging of their field by vandals. Wyoming has struggled on the road scoring just 6.5 points/game. Wyoming is just 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after a loss ATS and have a 16 game road conference losing streak. Colorado State is 9-1 ATS since 2000 after winning ATS on the road and an amazing 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites after winning SU + ATS on the road. Look Colorado States true freshman QB to rack up yard on the ground and the air. Win: Colorado St. blows out the Cowboys by 23 points!
Saturday, October 16, 2004:
Michigan St. (+9.5) over Minnesota: The Spartans are playing as home dogs and have been successful in the past in this situation. Michigan St. has gone 12-3 ATS as home dogs after a win since 1985 (10-1 ATS in their last 11 in conference). Teams playing as home dogs of 7->9.5 in conference games after 2 overs have gone 9-0 ATS since 2000 and teams are 6-0 ATS this season as dogs after winning + going over. Minnesota has gone 0-7 ATS on the road where the spread is 7->9.5 after winning ATS. Win: This was the biggest upset blow out of the day and we called it.
Georgia (-23) over Vanderbilt: The Bulldogs should rebound big after their loss to Tennessee as they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as home favorites after losing SU + ATS. Georgia is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after losing ATS + going under. Teams playing after losing and going under at home are 13-4-1 ATS since 2000. Vandy has gone 0-6 ATS against Georgia after 2 home games and are 1-6 ATS as 21->23.5 point road dogs after a home game. Vanderbilt has also gone just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road after a home game. Win: Georgia rolls to a 30 point victory over Vandy.
Arizona St./USC Over 50: The Trojans come into play with a banged up secondary and Arizona State should take advantage of them through the air. Arizona State has gone over in 7 of their last 9 on the road after winning ATS and teams have gone over in 19 of 27 since 1985 playing on the road in conference after 3 straight wins SU + ATS when the spread is 10->13.5. USC has gone over in 7 straight as favorites of 10->13.5 in conference games and in 8 straight as home favorites of 10->13.5. For USC, the over is 15-2-1 in their last 18 games after going under at home. Win: Strong first half by USC has this one sneak by the total.
Wyoming/BYU Under 45: These teams are playing this game late with a great prospect of going under the total. Wyoming has gone under in 6 of their last 7 conference games after a win and teams this season playing in 7->9.5 point games after 3 wins have gone under all 6 of those games. BYU has gone under in 13 of their last 14 as home favorites after a loss. The under for BYU is 8-0 at home after losing ATS at home and 6-0 in their last 6 as favorites in conference games following a loss. Win: This one totals out at 37 points to complete the perfect 5-0 day in College Football!
Thursday, October 14, 2004:
Louisville/Miami Under 43.5: In a game where Louisville will try to show their national merit, they will try to dictate the pace on the ground. Both of these teams are strong defensively are as Miami has allowed just 6.5 points a game this season and Louisville has allowed just 7. Miami isn't at full strength on an already shaky offense. Miami has gone under in their last 10 games with a totals line. Louisville is playing as road dogs of 7->9.5 in a non-conference game after winning SU + ATS (since 2000 the under is 15-0 is this situation). Both teams have won 4 straight games and when teams this season are playing in that position, the under has gone 12-2-1. Loss: Both defenses don't show up in this one.
Saturday, October 9, 2004:
Texas (+7) over Oklahoma: The Longhorns come into this big contest looking to avenge 4 losses to the Sooners and should be well prepared. With solid play at the QB position this time around, the Sooners should be susceptible to the pass. Texas has gone 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as road dogs in conference games after 2 home games, 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road after a loss ATS at home, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 on the road in conference after a loss ATS. The Sooners have lost 10 straight ATS at home after 2 previous home games. In college football when teams are playing as 7->9.5 point favorites in division games after 4 straight wins since 2000, they have gone 0-7 ATS. Loss: We didn't see the shutout coming as the Sooners shut out Texas 10-0.
Central Michigan (+15) over Bowling Green: C. Michigan has played B.G. well the past few years as they have won 3 in a row against them as home dogs. Teams in C. Michigan's position of home dogs of 14->16.5 in conference games after a win have done well since 1985 as they are 46-18-1 ATS. Bowling Green has gone 0-5-1 ATS in their history as road favorites in a division game after a road game. Bowling Green has lost 7 in a row on the road in division games after a win ATS and 8 in a row on the road in conference games after winning ATS. Loss: Bowling Green handles Central Michigan enough to get by the spread in the second half.
Thursday, October 7, 2004:
Clemson (+16.5) over Virginia: The Tigers come into tonight's game as huge underdogs to a team they have played well against over the years. Clemson is 6-0 ATS against the Virginia as dogs after losing their previous game and Virginia is just 1-8 ATS as favorites against Clemson (dating back to 1985). Overall trends in college football point to the Tigers in this one as well. Teams playing this season after losing both SU + ATS on the road in 2 straight games have gone 7-0 ATS in their next game and since 1985, teams playing as road dogs of 14->16.5 points after two straight losses on the road have gone a strong 11-3 ATS. Clemson has turned the ball over a lot and should be able to score enough to cover the spread in this contest. Loss: Clemson losses ATS by just 3.5 points.
Saturday, October 2, 2004:
Texas Tech (+26) over Oklahoma: Since 1985, Texas Tech is 8-0 ATS in the division as dogs after going under and 6-0 ATS on the road after winning + going under. This season in college football, teams are 7-1 ATS as dogs after winning on the road. Oklahoma is just 1-8 ATS at home in conference games after 2 home games and 0-8 ATS as favorites of 24->26.5 points in conference games after losing ATS. Texas Tech comes into today's game posting a high powered offense that should be able to put enough points on the board to cover the spread. Win: Texas Tech keeps this one in reach to cover the spread.
Miami/Georgia Tech Under 42: Miami has gone under in 9 straight games with a lined total and we think today will be number 10. Since 1991, Miami has gone under in 9 of their 10 games playing as road favorites in conference games after 3 straight wins. Miami is led by their strong defense and with Georgia Tech's top back hobbled, this game should stay defensive as the Canes are giving up just 7.7 points a game. Georgia Tech should play close at home and keep the Miami offense to a minimum. Win: Georgia Tech manages just 3 points as this one totals out at just 30.
San Diego St./UCLA Under 48: San Diego St. has gone under in all 6 games they have played on the road when the spread has been 2->6.5. San Diego St.'s defense should be able to limit the UCLA running game. UCLA gone under in 10 straight games as 3->6.5 point favorites. Teams playing as 3.->6.5 point favorites the past two seasons in college football have gone under in 13 of the 14 games played against non-conference opponents after winning SU + ATS. Teams have gone under in 12 of the 13 games played at home after a win on the road this season as well as under in 12 of the 13 played as favorites after 2 wins this season. Win: This one slips under the total to win cap off another dominant 4-1 college football weekend.
Friday, October 1, 2004:
Utah/New Mexico Under 48.5: This game is full of trends that sway us in the favor of the under tonight. In College football this season, teams playing in conference games after 2 straight wins have gone under in all 9 of those games. Utah is playing in that situation tonight along with playing after 3 straight wins, in which teams have gone under in all 9 of those games this season. Since 2000, the Utes have gone under in all 9 road games that were lined for a total on the road after a win. Also this season in College Football, teams have gone under in 12 of the 13 games playing at home after a win on the road (New Mexico's situation tonight). New Mexico's defense should give Utah enough problems to keep this one under. Win: This one totals just 35 points to start the weekend right.
Saturday, September 25, 2004:
N.C. State (+10) over Virginia Tech: The Wolfpack come into this game after a tough loss to Ohio St. and should be able to score on an easier Tech defense. N.C. State has gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as road dogs after going under at home. Virginia Tech has gone 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites in conference games after playing their previous games at home. Virginia Tech is also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites in conference games after 2 home game. We like the pack to keep it close today. Win: N.C. State wins outright as dogs on the road!
USC/Stanford Over 56.5: These teams are better on defense than they were last season when they lit up the scoreboard, but not enough to stop the offenses. USC has gone over in 11 straight games as road favorites after a win and in 11 of 12 on the road after 2 wins in their last 12. USC has also gone over in 13 of their last 14 in conference games as road favorite. Stanford has gone over in 12 of 13 games in conference at home after a win in their last 13 games. Win: This one totals out at 59 to give us another incredible week of 3-0-1 in the College ranks.
Thursday, September 23, 2004:
Akron (+7) over Kent St.: This rivalry is being played in Kent St., but these teams are located so close, there is no home advantage as the home team in this rivalry has lost 6 straight games in a row ATS. Akron has gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as dogs in division games after losing ATS. The Zips are also 7-1 ATS on the road in 7->9.5 point games after losing SU and ATS on the road and 7-1 ATS since 1997 as dogs after 2 losses ATS. Kent St. has gone just 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games with a 7->9.5 point spread. Win: Akron wins this game outright by 5 points to start the week hot!
Saturday, September 18, 2004:
Maryland/W. Virginia Under 48: This game is being played as both teams are off to a fast 2-0 start. In College Football since 1985, when teams playing in games with a 7->9.5 point spread against a non-conference opponent after 2 wins (both teams in this situation), the under has won in 44 of the 62 games. W. Virginia has had a great running attack and their best rusher is hobbled and may not even play this game. Since last season in College Football, teams have gone under in 14 of the 16 games as home favorites in non-conference games after winning on the road (W.V.s situation here). Win: This game goes under by 15 points, even in overtime!
Cincinnati/Syracuse Under 51: The Bearcats have gone under in their last 9 games after winning SU and ATS and under in 9 straight games against non-conference opponents. Syracuse's offense has struggled against good defenses (shut out in week 1 vs. Purdue) and the Bearcats have played well on D. The under has gone 0-4-1 in Syracuse's games after winning SU + ATS last season and we see that trend continuing on Saturday. Win: This game goes under by a whopping 25 points!
Navy (+1) over Tulsa: Navy is a very close pick'em in this game and for good reason. Navy plays well on the road ATS as they have gone 23-9 ATS on the road in non-conference games after a road game and are 15-5 ATS on the road ATS after a home game since 1997. Tulsa is just 1-9 ATS in game with a pick->2.5 point spread after losing on the road and 1-7 ATS in non-conference games after a road game since 1997. Since last season in the NCAA, teams are 0-8 ATS as PK->2.5 point underdogs in non-conference games after a loss. Win: Navy blows away Tulsa and this one isn't even close!
Florida/Tennessee Under 46: These teams are playing in another highly touted game and we think the total is set too high in this one as well. Florida has gone under in 6 games in a row as road dogs after a home game and the under has gone 7-1-1 in their games as road dogs in conference games after a home game. For Tennessee, the under is 11-0 at home in 3->6.5 point spread games after winning SU + ATS. Loss: High scoring first half lead to the only Top Notch pick loss of the day.
Saturday, September 11, 2004:
Southern Mississippi/Nebraska Under 46: Both of these teams are very solid defensively and should be able to keep the score under the total. Southern Mississippi has gone under all 8 lined games they have played on the road in September and the under is 11-1 in non-conference games they have played in September. Southern Miss. has gone under in 12 of their last 13 games that have had a total line after a loss. Nebraska's strength is their defense and are as solid as they were last season when they gave up just 14.5 points per game. Win: Southern Miss' defense stops the Huskers in the 4th to keep this under the total.
Auburn/Mississippi St. Over 45: Auburn drubbed their opponent last week and didn't show much of their offense at all. They should let it loose today. Auburn's defense pitched a shutout last week, but they are not as strong defensively as they were last year so we are not fooled by the shutout. Auburn has gone over in all 6 games they have played on the road in division games in the month of September. Mississippi State has gone over in 7 of their 8 games played against conference opponents after winning in September. Win: Auburn pours on the offense in this blow out win that easily goes over the total.
Georgia/South Carolina Under 44: These two teams should match up in a game that the defenses will control. Georgia has gone under in all 6 games they have played as favorites in conference after a win when playing in September. The Bulldogs have also gone under in 7 straight meetings with S. Carolina after a win when they meet in September. S. Carolina has gone under in 9 straight division games in September and in 6 straight against Georgia in September after posting a win. Win: These teams combine for just 36 points as it falls under easily to give us a perfect 4-0 Saturday of Top Notch Picks!
Saturday, September 5, 2004:
Rice (+4) over Houston: The Rice Owls are looking to make an impact this season with their option offense of which they are returning 7 starters. Houston is strong on offense, but their defense won't allow many opportunities in this game. Rice has gone 10-4 ATS (71%) against defenses that have allowed more than 31 points per game. Rice's offense should be able to run at will as they did the first six games of last season. This is a 3-0 consensus formula pick from a formula that went 3-0 on Saturday. Win: Rice's defense hold Houston to 7 points as they win this game outright as an underdog!
Saturday, September 4, 2004:
Oklahoma St. (+1) over UCLA: Okla. St. comes into the season returning 7 starters from an offense that put up 35.9 points a game last season. Their defense returns 8 starters including All-American Darrent Williams. UCLA lost 5 straight games to end last season, most in part thanks to a miserable offense ranked 110th in the nation. The experience and talent should take Okalahoma State to a victory. This game was a 3-0 consensus pick in our statistical formula software and we will make it a Top Notch Pick. Win: The Cowboys post an 11 point win on UCLA.
Kansas (-3.5) over Tulsa: The Jayhawks come into tonight's game as a strong 3-0 consensus formula pick (Formula has picked at a 63% over the last 3 years).. Running back Clark Green should have a big night as the Tulsa defense is suspect. Tulsa has gone just 6-13-1 ATS in their 20 road games that have been lined. Kansas should use their home advantage to win and cover the spread. Win: Kansas rolls to a victory in the second half to cover the spread by 14.5 points!
Idaho/Boise St. Under 60: Boise St. has been know for their high scoring offense, but return just 9 starters overall (6 on defense, but just 3 on offense). Idaho new coach (Nick Holt) is a defensive minded coach, so Idaho should be able to slow Boise St. and their inexperienced offense down enough to keep this one under the high total. In the NCAA Football since 1995, games with a point spread of 30 or more points have gone under the total 8 of 9 times. We like the Under strong on this one. Loss: Idaho's defense doesn't show as this goes over in the 4th quarter.
Thursday, September 2, 2004:
Utah (-8.5) over Texas A&M: The Utes are coming into this season with high expectations and a load of starters back from a very successful season in 2003 (7 defensive starters). One of Utahs only two losses last season came against the Aggies in Texas. This year they meat in Utah and trends favor the Utes. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS as road dogs the past two seasons and are just 6-21-1 ATS as road dogs since 1985. Utah has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games during the first month of the season. The experience Utes will look to extract their revenge for one of their two losses last season and should cover the spread here. Win: The Utes control the game throughout and cruise to a 20 point win!