2005-2006 College Basketball Top Notch Pick Results
Monday, April 3, 2006:
10 BONES Florida (-1) over UCLA: I'll take the Gators tonight to win the championship with edges in several key categories. Florida has the edge in field goal percentage as they are the top shooting team in the nation with a 50.2% shooting percentage, while UCLA has shot just 39% in their last 3 game overall. Florida has also shoots the 3 better as they hit at 39%. The free throw line is where the big disparity comes from as the Gators shoot 74.3%, while UCLA shoots 69% and has struggled from the line in big spots earlier this tournament. UCLA hasn't faced a well balanced team like Florida this post season and will have problems generating enough offense to win this game. WIN
Saturday, April 1, 2006:
5 BONES LSU/UCLA UNDER 121: I'll take the low road in this game tonight. I look for a very low scoring game as both of these teams have played excellent defense to get to this point. LSU has held opponents to 37.7% shooting from the field in their last 5 games and only 28.8% from 3 point land. That's nothing compared to UCLA's last 5 games as they have held opponents to 54.2 points per game, allowing 38.2% from the field and 21.2% from 3 point range. UCLA has gone under in 7 of their last 9 games on Saturday and LSU has gone under in 7 of their last 8 on Saturday. LSU has gone under in 20 of their last 28 games overall. UCLA has gone under in 7 of their last 9 games on a neutral site as well. WIN
Tuesday, March 28, 2006:
2 BONES S. Carolina (-2) over Louisville: I'll lay the points with last years NIT champs returning to the Garden to defend their title. S. Carolina has won 8 games in a row ATS, going 7-1 SU, with that loss being to the Florida Gators by 2 points. They also beat that Final Four team Florida twice in the regular season. I think the Carolina will ride that experience from last season and put away a Louisville Cardinal team that they are better than. Louisville has won 3 in row, but are just 5-4 SU in their last 9 games and haven't played a team as good as S. Carolina is in those 3 games they won. I'll go with the better team in the Gamecocks here. WIN
Sunday, March 26, 2006:
4 BONES George Mason (+8) over Connecticut: I'll grab the points with George Mason here as they have been impressive so far this tournament and the Huskies have struggled to stay alive. George Mason will be playing this game practically at home in Washington D.C. and they have gone 10-3 SU in their 13 non-conference games so far this season. George Mason has gone 3-0 SU + ATS in the tournament and Connecticut has dropped 6 games in a row ATS. The Huskies have gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on Sunday and Marcus Williams will be playing this game on a bum ankle. Teams have gone just 27-59 ATS since 1997 in NCAA tournament games when playing on a neutral court after going over in 2 straight, playing a team that has gone under in 2 straight. WIN
Friday, March 24, 2006:
3 BONES Villanova (-2.5) over Boston College: I'll take Villanova tonight to cover the spread in this contest. Villanova has more talent and better guard play that should take advantage from the perimeter. Boston College ranks 288th in 3-pt. defensive percentage at 37.3% and Villanova ranks 36th in offensive 3-point percentage at 38.5%. Another advantage will be at the line if Villanova has a small lead late, they shoot a solid 75% while BC shoots only 67%. The Eagles struggled against Pacific, going to OT to get the cover and were tested against a much lesser Montana team until late in the 2nd half. Villanova has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Eagles and should be able to win and cover as the more talented team. LOSS
Thursday, March 23, 2006:
4 BONES West Virginia (+5) over Texas: I'll take the Mountaineers here and the points as they have the same make-up that went to the Elite 8 last season and they should do it again tonight, if not come very close. W.V. has gone 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall (13-3-2 ATS since the 2000 season) as dogs after going under. The Mountaineers have won 7 in a row ATS (11-2 ATS since the 2000 season) as dogs in non-conference games after winning 2 in a row. Teams have gone 12-3 ATS since the 2000 season as 3->6.5 point dogs in non-conference after winning 2 in a row SU + ATS + going under (W.V.'s position tonight). Texas only won by 1 in their earlier meeting with the Mountaineers and have been inconsistent all season. Texas has gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and should struggle to cover tonight. WIN
Monday, March 20, 2006:
2 BONES Old Dominion (-10) over Manhattan: I'll take Old Dominion here as they have a superior team and they play very well at home. Old Dominion has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They have gone 9-3 in non-conference games this season, while Manhattan is a very average 6-5 in their non-conference games this season. Old Dominion outscores opponents by an average of 13 points a game at home. Manhattan has gone just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall and has been out rebounded by 6.6 a game in their last 5 contests. Old Dominion has out rebounded opponents by 5.2 a game in their last 5, so the rebounding advantage should be huge. Teams have gone 124-71 ATS since 1997, after winning by 15 or more, when they are a good defensive team (63-67 ppg) and they are playing a poor defensive team (74-78 ppg). LOSS
Sunday, March 19, 2006:
3 BONES Georgetown/Ohio State UNDER 125: I'll take the under in this contest as both teams have struggled to play in high scoring games as of late. Georgetown has gone under in 12 of their last 14 games overall as they have averaged totals of just 117 in their last 5 games. Ohio State has gone under in 6 of their last 7 overall with an average total of just 122 in their last 5 games. Georgetown has gone under in 11 of 13 since 2000 when playing after winning SU + ATS + going under the total in their previous game. They have also gone under in 16 of the 19 games they have played since last season after winning ATS. Ohio State has gone under in 7 of their last 8 games on Sunday and in 16 of their last 21 games in the afternoon. WIN
Saturday, March 18, 2006:
3 BONES Illinois (-2) over Washington: I'll take the team from the Big Ten in this one as they have had the much tougher conference this season. These teams have nearly identical records, but I think Illinois has the edge talent wise as well as many of the match up categories. Dee Brown is overdue for a big game scoring and the rest of his team has stepped it up lately. Illinois has gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after an over. Washington will have problems stopping Illinois as they don't like to slow the game down and they don't play zone often. Illinois thrives in that type of game and should maintain an edge in this one. LOSS
2 BONES Gonzaga (-2.5) over Indiana: I will take Gonzaga in this contest as they are the better team and should be able to outplay Indiana. The pressure is on Gonzaga and they are due to go to the sweet 16. Batista should be able to neutralize Killingsworth for Indiana as he is their main weapon. The Bulldogs have the best weapon in Morrison and should be able win this contest tonight due to their talent. Gonzaga poses match-up problems for the Hoosiers and they score 9 more points per game than Indiana does. Gonzaga has a better SU record and has won 19 games in a row. They have shot well from beyond the arc in their last 5 games and all season. They should get the win and cover the one basket in this contest. WIN
Friday, March 17, 2006:
3 BONES Kansas (-7) over Bradley: I'll take the Jayhawks and drop the the points as they are perhaps the hottest team in the country. They won the Big 12 tourney and have now gone 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall (12-4 ATS). They have also gone 10-2 ATS after going over on the road since last season. Kansas is superior in almost every match-up against Bradley and should be able to win and cover tonight. Bradley has gone 3-14 ATS since the 2000 season when playing as dogs after losing both SU + ATS on the road. Bradley averages less per game and gives up more per game than Kansas does. LOSS
4 BONES UAB (+3.5) over Kentucky: I will take UAB tonight to get the mild upset over the Wildcats. Kentucky is overrated because of their name and do not have a great team this season. UAB has gone 8-1 SU in their last 9 games and are playing their best basketball of the season. That only loss was to #1 seem Memphis and they also beat Memphis during that run. UAB has gone 4-2-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have outscored opponents by an average of 6 a game in their last 5 games. UAB is 11-3 ATS as dogs since last season and scores more per game, while giving up less per game that the Wildcats. Teams have gone 14-3 ATS as post season dogs of 3->6.5 after losing SU + ATS + going under since the 2000 season. Kentucky finished the season going just 3-3 SU and should find it tough tonight. LOSS
Thursday, March 16, 2006:
3 BONES Texas A&M (-1) over Syracuse: When this line came out it was at -2 for Syracuse. Now Texas A&M is the favorite and for good reasons. Texas A&M has won 6 games in a row and are playing their best basketball of the season. The Aggies have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games SU, with their only loss a 4 point loss to Texas. They also beat Texas in that stretch and no opponent scored more than 60 points. Texas A&M has won 6 in a row ATS and average 9 more than their opponents. Texas A&M shoots better, plays better defense, and turns the ball over less than Syracuse. The Orange are 6-16 ATS since the 2000 season after 2 road games and they are coming off their Big East tournament win by beating 4 teams by an average of 2 points. I think their luck runs out today. WIN
Wednesday, March 15, 2006:
2 BONES Oklahoma State (+4) over Miami: I'll grab the points with the road team in this one as a consensus of formulas that predicted at 75% SU this season picked the Cowboys to win the game SU. Miami has struggled down the stretch, going 2-7 SU in their last 9 games. Oklahoma State has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall, where they have outscored opponents by an average of 5 points a game. The Cowboys have gone 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and shoot 5% from the free throw line and the field than Miami. I'll take the hotter team as the Cowboys should post the victory. WIN
3 BONES Colorado (-6) over Old Dominion: I'll go with the Buffalos tonight as they are the better team that played in the better conference. Colorado is an experienced team that would like to continue on as they have 10 seniors. They also will have the most talented player on the court in Richard Roby, an all conference guard. Colorado has gone 13-4 ATS in non-conference games since last season and have won 3 of their last 5 games overall. Old Dominion has gone 1-9-1 ATS as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after losing ATS since the 2000 season. One of those games was out of conference on the road this season against UAB by 28 points. I think this game has a good chance to be of similar outcome. LOSS
Tuesday, March 14, 2006:
2 BONES Rutgers (+2) over Penn State: I'll take Rutger tonight and the few points as they kick off the NIT. Rutgers has a better team, both scoring more points on average and allowing less points on average. Penn State has gone 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games on Tuesday and and will have trouble stopping Rutgers scoring attack, mainly due to Douby who averaged a stellar 27 points per game in the Big East conference this season. Rutgers has got over it's bad stretch mid way through the season and has gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games, including SU wins against NCAA bound Seton Hall and Marquette. Penn State is a good team, but Rutgers is a little more talented and that should show tonight. WIN
Sunday, March 12, 2006:
2 BONES Texas (-3) over Kansas: I'll lay the points with what I feel is the better team here. Texas has gone 12-3-1 ATS (6-1 in their last 7) as favorites in conference after winning SU + losing ATS since the 2000 season. Except for a big loss to the Jayhawks earlier this season, Texas has dominated this series ATS recently, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meeting. One of those wins was the last contest where Texas extracted some revenge with a 25 point win in February. Texas has beat opponents by an average of 12 points a game in their last 5 and Kansas doesn't match up well with the Longhorns. Kansas has a very young team and will find it very tough to beat an extremely good Texas team. LOSS
Saturday, March 11, 2006:
3 BONES Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Syracuse: Not the match-up most people imagined in the Big East final, but don't mistake how much better a team Pittsburgh is than Syracuse. Syracuse has scraped and clawed it's way to this championship tilt by emotionally draining wins by a total of just 4 points. Syracuse should hit the wall energy wise here against a very physical and defensive Pitt team. The key in today's game will be the depth of Pitt compared to Syracuse. The bench is a great deal better and will have more energy as they have not struggled by any means in their first 3 games of this tourney. Pitt has gone 8-2 in their last 10 games SU + ATS against Syracuse, including a 13 point win in their only meeting earlier this season. LOSS
Friday, March 10, 2006:
3 BONES Iowa (-5.5) over Minnesota: I'll lay the points with Iowa in a spot where they are much more rested than the Gophers that played yesterday. The Gophers starters logged big minutes last night in a tough win against Michigan. Minnesota has gone 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games and are 1-3 in their last 4 SU. Iowa on the other hand is well rested and hungry for a tourneyment win. They have finished the regular season 7-3 SU & ATS and have shot 5% better from the field than their opponents all season. Iowa has outscored their opponents by 6 a game in their last 5. Iowa is the much better team and should win and cover today. WIN
Thursday, March 9, 2006:
4 BONES Vanderbilt (-9) over Auburn: I'll lay the points with Vanderbilt tonight as they are playing much better than Auburn is at this time. Vanderbilt has gone 4-3 SU in their last 7 games, but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the SEC (Florida, LSU, and Tennessee). They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Tigers. Vanderbilt holds matchup advantages in nearly all categories and they have gone 6-4 ATS on the road this season. Auburn has gone just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and have allowed nearly 50% shooting from the field on the road this season. Auburn has been out rebounded by 7 a game in their last 5 games and the loss of Dollard earlier this month has hurt them. LOSS
Wednesday, March 8, 2006:
2 BONES Arizona State (-1.5) over Oregon St.: I'll lay the points tonight as Oregon State comes into the Pac 10 tourney decimated by injuries. Oregon State lost their 3rd leading scorer last game and will have to continue to adjust after losing their top senior point guard Hurd earlier this season. They have gone 3-10 SU without him (5-8 ATS) and will have trouble against a team that is playing their better basketball of the season. Arizona State has two wins in their last 4 games against California and Washington St. Arizona State has won the last 2 meetings SU + ATS this season and teams have gone 42-22-1 ATS since 2000 as PK->2.5 point favorites after winning SU + ATS + going. I like the Sun Devils to get it done tonight. LOSS
Sunday, March 5, 2006:
2 BONES S. Alabama (-6) over Arkansas Little Rock: I'll lay the points with Southern Alabama in this Sun Belt conference tourney game here as S. Alabama has gone 12-3 SU in confernce play and Ark. L.R. has managed just a 6-9 record. Arkansas L.R. has gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as 3->6.5 point dogs after a win. Arkansas L.R. has gone just 3-7 SU in their last 10 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. S. Alabama has gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings and won by 7 on the road in their only meeting this season with Ark. L.R. S. Alabama has won 5 games in a row SU and 4 in a row ATS. The have averaged wins of 13 points in their last 5 games. I'll lay the points with the better and hotter team in this contest. WIN
Saturday, March 4, 2006:
2 BONES Utah (-6.5) over Wyoming: I'll lay the point here and take the home team in a decisive manner tonight. Utah has been the better team of the series of meetings between these two team as they have gone 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Utah will be playing their last home game and should bring a strong effort. Wyoming has lost 5 in a row SU and are just 1-8 in their last 9 games overall. They should be overmatched on the road tonight. Teams are just 3-11 ATS since the 2000 season as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after losing + going over in 2 straight game. Wyoming has lost 3 in a row ATS and are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The big advantage for Utah comes in FG% as they shoot 6% better from the field than Wyoming. WIN
Friday, March 3, 2006:
2 BONES Arkansas State (-1) over Troy: I'll lay the point here and take what I believe to be the better team. Arkansas State has the better conference record and has played better recently going 5-5 SU. Troy has gone 3-7 SU in their last 10 (2-8 ATS) and lost by 23 points earlier this season in these two teams only match up. Arkansas State has gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 (19-4-1 ATS since 1990) after losing SU + ATS on the road. These two teams have similar statistics across the board except for field goal %, this is where Ark. St. shoots 6% better. Teams have gone 35-16 ATS this season as PK->2.5 point favorites after losing ATS + SU + going under on the road. LOSS
Thursday, March 2, 2006:
3 BONES Western Carolina (-3) over UNC Greensboro: I'll lay the few points here as both of these teams seem to be headed in the opposite direction. Greensboro has lost 6 games in a row SU and have gone 2-4 ATS in those contests. W. Carolina has gone 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and are a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall. Western Carolina also holds a big edge in conference play as they are 7-7 SU, while Greensboro is just 4-10. Teams playing in Greensboro's position as dogs of 3->6.5 after losing + going over in 2 straight have gone 4-16 ATS since last season. Teams playing in Western Carolina's position as 3->6.5 point favorites in conference after losing SU + winning ATS + going over on the road have gone 14-5-1 ATS since last seaoson. Western Carolina has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Greensboro, winning both contests this season by 14 and 11. LOSS
Wednesday, March 1, 2006:
2 BONES Texas A&M (+6.5) over Texas: The Aggies should put forth one of their best efforts of the season as they will be making a bid for an NCAA tourney spot. The Aggies are a solid 15-2 SU at home this season and should give the Longhorns all they can handle. Teams in Texas A&M's position have gone 19-7-1 ATS at home in conference after winning 3 in a row + going under this season. The Aggies have won 5 in a row SU and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Texas has lost 2 in a row ATS on the road as they beat Kansas State by just 1 point and got blasted by Oklahoma State by 21. Texas was upset last season in this spot at Texas A&M and have dropped the last 3 meetings ATS there. WIN
2 BONES Kansas (-9) over Colorado: I expect the Jayhawks to bounce back big time tonight after their devastating loss to Texas. It's senior night for Kansas and they have dominated on this night as they have won 22 straight years. Kansas has dominated Colorado in their recent meetings as they have won all 5 SU + ATS. Kansas has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are 9-1 SU. Colorado has gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and has scored the same amount on average in those contests as their opponents have. Colorado has gone 8-21 ATS since the 2000 season when playing on the road in a conference game off of a win. Kansas is a solid 7-4 ATS at home this season and should rebound well to get a big win tonight. WIN
Tuesday, February 28, 2006:
5 BONES Louisiana State (+1.5) over S. Carolina: This is a game that the LSU Tigers must win in order to stay in first place in the SEC and win it. They will be determined to play for the title, even without one of their key players being out (Thomas). S. Carolina looked like an NCAA tourney team at one time, but have fallen out of contention as they have lost 3 games in a row SU + ATS, all of them as favorites. LSU ranks 1st in the SEC in FG defense as they allow 41% and S. Carolina ranks 10th as they allow 47% shooting from the field. LSU has won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Gamecocks and won by 15 in January's contest. South Carolina has gone 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites in conference and 3-13-1 ATS since last season in conference after losing ATS. The Gamecocks have gone 4-8 ATS at home this season and 1-9 ATS at home in PK->2.5 point games after losing since the 2000 season. LSU should play desperate and get the road win tonight. WIN
4 BONES Wright State/Illinois-Chicago OVER 123.5: I expect these teams to climb over this low total as both teams have been averaging over this amount in recent games. Wright State has gone over in 4 of their last 6 games overall. They have averaged totals of 136.6 points in their last 5 games overall. Illinois-Chicago has gone over in 4 straight games and have averaged 146.6 points in their last 5 games. Illinois-Chicago has averaged 138.3 points in their games this season and 138.7 in their games at home. The only line Illinois-Chicago has seen lower than this one for a total this season was at Northwestern early on at 123. That game went over with a total of 133 points. With 4 of the last 5 meetings going over the total, I like this one to topple it as well. WIN
Monday, February 27, 2006:
4 BONES San Francisco (+16.5) over Gonzaga: Gonzaga has not excelled in this spot in at home. They have gone a dismal 3-11 ATS as home favorites so far this season. Gonzaga has also dropped 4 of their last 5 games they have played at home ATS. They have only averaged wins by 12 a game at home so far this season. Teams have gone 4-15 ATS as home favorites of 14->16.5 after winning SU + ATS + going under this season. San Francisco has started to play their best basketball of the season as they are 3-2 SU in their last 5 (3-1 ATS in their last 4) games. They have won 2 of the last 3 meetings ATS at Gonzaga and are 12-4 ATS since the 2000 season on the road in conference after winning ATS on the road. Teams have gone 11-3-1 ATS since the 2000 season as road dogs of 14->16.5 after winning ATS + going over on the road. WIN
Sunday, February 26, 2006:
4 BONES Bowling Green (+8.5) over Buffalo: The Falcons are due to play a solid game and they should do it today against a struggling Bison team. Buffalo has gone just 1-7 SU + ATS in their last 8 games overall. Teams playing as home favorites in division after losing SU + ATS + going over on the road this season have gone just 3-13 ATS. Teams have gone 4-13-2 ATS since the 2000 season as home favorites in division after losing ATS + going over in 2 straight games. Bowling Green has gone 8-5 ATS on the road where they have only been outscored by 7 points a game. Pit them up against a team that is struggling to win and I will grab the 8.5 points in this spot. LOSS
Saturday, February 25, 2006:
4 BONES Kansas (+7) over Texas: The Jayhawks are one of the hottest teams in the nation as they have won 10 games in a row SU and are 8-2 ATS in that stretch. They have outscored their opponents by an average of 20 points a game in their last 5. Kanas is also a solid 7-3 ATS on the road this season. Texas has lost 2 in a row ATS and it looks like fatigue is starting to set in as they do not go to their bench often. Their last two games were losses to a mediocre Oklahoma State team by 21 and a win at Kansas State by just 1 point. Texas' usual big advantage on the board will be nuetralized as Kansas is an excellent rebounding team as well. Kansas leads the nation in FG% defense as they allow just 36% per game. With the Jayhawks going 3-3 SU in their last 6 trips to Austin, I will grab the points here. LOSS
Thursday, February 23, 2006:
2 BONES Troy (-3.5) over North Texas: Troy will be seeking home revenge for a close loss at North Texas earlier this season. Troy plays better defense and takes care of the ball better than North Texas and they have been a solid 8-3 SU at home. North Texas is in a slump as they have gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 ATS and 1-6 SU in their last 7 overall. North Texas has been outscored by 9 points a game on the road this season. Teams have gone 6-17 ATS since last season and 9-27 ATS since the 2000 season as road dogs of 3->6.5 in non-conference games after losing + going over on the road. This seems like a mismatch on paper and I will lay the points with the home team tonight. LOSS
Wednesday, February 22, 2006:
3 BONES Penn State (+10.5) over Indiana: Indiana is amidst tough times with their coach leaving at the end of the season. They have gone 1-11 ATS so far this season in conference play and have dropped 8 straight ATS after a loss ATS. Penn State has gone 5-3 ATS on the road this season while Indiana is just 1-8 ATS at home. Teams have gone 4-13 ATS this season as home favorites of 10->13.5 in conference after losing 2 in a row ATS on the road. Hard to see Indiana covering a double digit spread against a team that beat them a week ago. WIN
2 BONES Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida: Tennessee should bring their A game tonight as they have gone 10-2 ATS so far this season in conference and have won 4 in a row ATS as dogs in conference after losing. Tennessee won their earlier match up with the Gators this season and are now 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Teams have gone 12-3 ATS as road dogs of 7->9.5 in division after going over this season. Florida has gone 4-13 ATS as favorites in division after losing ATS since the 2000 season. Teams have gone 3-13 ATS as home favorites in division after losing SU + ATS + going over on the road this season. WIN
3 BONES De Paul (+9) over Louisville: The Cardinals have been a disappointment all season as they have gone 2-11 ATS at home and are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games (2-8 ATS). Now the Cardinals have to play without their best interior player in Padgett as he is out for the season. Louisville has gone 4-16-1 ATS at home after going over since the 2000 season. Teams have gone 2-11-1 ATS as home favorites of 7->9.5 in conference after losing 4 in a row ATS dating back to last season. DePaul has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road with impressive wins at St. John's and South Florida. DePaul won the last 3 meetings ATS against Louisville and should give them a run for the money tonight. LOSS
Tuesday, February 21, 2006:
2 BONES Seton Hall (-1) over St. Johns: Seton Hall looks to be in a great spot for a win as they have won the last 2 times SU + ATS when visiting St. Johns. Seton Hall has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall, while going 7-2 SU in their last 9. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS this season on the road in PK->2.5 point games in conference after going over in 2 straight at home. Since last season, teams have gone 19-8 ATS as road favorites after losing SU + ATS + going over at home. St. John's has gone 2-12 ATS as dogs after going under at home since the 2000 season. They have also gone just 1-7 SU + ATS in their last 8 overall. Seton Hall has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings ATS and should do it again tonight. LOSS
Monday, February 20, 2006:
4 BONES Citadel (+10.5) over Furman: The home team here is desperate for a win and should put their best effort out against an average Furman team. Citadel has started to respond after their dismal start ATS as they have gone 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games (4-13 on the season). One of those losses was as 7 point dogs in a game they lost by 10 in overtime. If not for the OT, they would be 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Furman has gone 0-5 ATS as road favorites after losing on the road dating back to the 2000 season. In their last 7 games, Furman has gone 2-5 ATS and SU. It's hard to see why a team that is averaging 5 points a game less than their opponents on the road is favored by double digits. I'll swoop up the point here with the home dog. LOSS
Sunday, February 19, 2006:
2 BONES Miami (+17) over Duke: The Duke Blue Devils are the top of the class in the ACC, but when it comes to covering the spread in this type of game the situation doesn't look good. Duke has gone just 1-10-1 ATS since the 2000 season when playing as home favorites of 17->19.5 points. During this season, teams have gone 6-16-1 ATS when playing as home favorites of 17->19.5 after losing ATS at home. Miami has gone a solid 15-5 ATS the last two seasons (8-1 ATS in their last 9) when playing as road dogs in a division game. Miami plays better defense, rebounds better, and turns the ball over less. All of these factors should keep them in the game long enough to get a cover. Miami out rebounds opponents by 3 a game, while Duke is out rebounded by 2 a game. LOSS
Saturday, February 18, 2006:
4 BONES Richmond (+11) over George Washington: The home dogs seems like a great choice here as teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS since last season as home dogs of 10->13.5 in conference after losing 5 games in a row. Richmond should play much better and seek revenge for a 30 point loss they took on the road at GW earlier this season. Richmond has won the last 2 meetings SU + ATS at home against GW. George Washington has lost 2 in a row ATS and teams have struggled playing in this spot. Since last season, teams are 1-11 ATS as favorites in division after winning 2 in a row SU + losing ATS and teams are 9-22 ATS in division games after 7 wins in a row. Teams have also gone just 3-15-1 ATS as road favorites in division after losing ATS + going under at home since the year 2000. LOSS
3 BONES Pepperdine (-4.5) over Portland: Pepperdine seems like they are in a great spot to get a home win and cover against a Portland team that has lost 6 games in a row SU and are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall. Portland has been miserable on the road this season as they have lost by an average of 11 points. Portland has gone 1-12 ATS in their last 13 as 3->6.5 point dogs in conference (dating back to the 2000 season). Pepperdine has improved lately going 3-2 ATS in their last 5 overall. Pepperdine is a solid 15-5 ATS as favorites in conference after a road games since the 2000 season. Pepperdine has also dominated the recent match ups between these teams as they have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and are 8-2 SU in their last 10. LOSS
2 BONES Texas Christian/San Diego State OVER 132.5: Texas Christian should find scoring against the Aztecs a great deal easier than in their last 2 games where they played strong defensive teams. TCU managed just 42 and 45 points in those games and should break out against an up tempo San Diego State team. The Aztecs have gone over in 12 of their last 13 games in conference after a win since last season. They have also gone over in 9 of their 10 games since last season after winning ATS + going over the total. The Aztecs are a high scoring 72.6 points per game this season and have flown above the total in 9 of their last 10 games overall. I expect a high scoring game as this one should rise above this lower total. WIN
Thursday, February 16, 2006:
2 BONES Marquette (+1) over Georgetown: The Hoyas are a team that the public has loved to bet since their win over Duke. When a team gets love from the public, their opponents usually gets love from the lines makers. Marquette is a solid 10-2 ATS as home dogs since the 2000 season. They have been good at home this season as they are 11-2 SU and 6-2 ATS with one of their wins coming against U Conn. Marquette has averaged 13 points more than their opponents in home games and they score more, rebound better, and have a better bench than Georgetown. The Hoyas like the 3 point shot on the road as they have hit 40% this season from beyond the arc. This should be offset by Marquette's strong perimeter defense at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 30% from 3's. WIN
Wednesday, February 15, 2006:
3 BONES Florida State/N.C. State OVER 143: I have a consensus of formulas that has predicted the totals in college basketball this season at 60% taking the over in this game. Florida State sets the high scoring pace as their games have averaged a total of 149 points this season. The over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and they have gone over in 3 straight games on the road after a win. Teams have gone over in 14 of 16 games since last season as road dogs of 7->9.5 after losing 2 in a row ATS at home. For North Carolina State the over in 6-2-1 in their last 9 overall and they should score enough tonight to push the pace of this game over the total. WIN
Tuesday, February 14, 2006:
2 BONES Michigan State (+4) over Iowa: This Big Ten contest should be close and I'll grab the three points as I believe Coach Izzo will have his team ready to beat the Big Ten leader. The Spartans have gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Iowa, including earlier this month at home where they thumped the Hawkeyes by 30 points. The Spartans should respond well after an upset loss on the road at Minnesota. Iowa has gone just 6-14 ATS after a win since last season. They are also just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as home favorites after winning SU + ATS. LOSS
Monday, February 13, 2006:
2 BONES San Diego/San Francisco OVER 145: Both of these teams are in spots where teams have gone over many times previous. San Francisco has gone under in 3 straight games and when a team is playing as home dogs of PK->2.5 after 3 under, the over has gone 9-1 in their next game since last season. Teams have also gone over in 16 of 20 this season at home in a PK->2.5 point game in conference after winning ATS + going under. San Diego has gone over in 4 of their last 6 games and are averaging 155 points per game in their last 5, where they have shot over 50% from the field. San Diego should set the pace as the better team and lead this game to the over. WIN
Sunday, February 12, 2006:
2 BONES Kansas St. (-2) over Missouri: The Wildcats will ride their momentum of beating Iowa State and should win over a Missouri team that is in disarray after their coach resigned a few days ago. Kansas State has an edge in nearly every statistical match up and has won the last 3 meeting SU + ATS against the Tigers. One of those wins was a 15 point drubbing back in January. Missouri has lost 6 games in a row SU + ATS. Missouri is just 2-6 ATS at home this season and Kansas State is 4-2 ATS on the road. Teams have gone just 10-25 ATS at home in division after losing ATS + going over on the road since last season. (Missouri's position today). I think Kansas State will be focused and play well enough to get the win today. LOSS
Saturday, February 11, 2006:
2 BONES Utah/San Diego State OVER 131.5: The Utes have gone over in 3 of their last 4 games overall and in 8 straight on the road after a home game. Utah has averaged nearly 138 points in their games on the road this season. San Diego State has averaged nearly 138 points in their games this season. San Diego St. has also gone over in all 14 games since the 2000 season after winning 2 in a row ATS. They have also gone over in 11 of 12 since last season in conference games following a win. San Diego State has gone over in 9 of their last 10 overall and in 3 of their last 4 meetings with Utah. Looks like this total is set too low. WIN
Friday, February 10, 2006:
2 BONES Columbia (+10) over Yale: This Ivy league match up is the best play on Friday night due to the amount of points being layed by Yale. Columbia has gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as road dogs after a home game. They are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 on the road and have only lost by an average of 4 points a game on the road this season. Yale has lost 2 in a row SU + ATS and have averaged 2 less points than their opponents overall this season. Teams have gone 7-17 ATS since last season as home favorites of 10->13.5 in conference after losing 2 in a row ATS on the road. Columbia's defense and free throw shooting should keep them close enough to cover tonight. WIN
Wednesday, February 8, 2006:
3 BONES Kansas State (-2) over Iowa State: K-State comes in having lost three straight by four points or less. And seeking revenge for a two-point January loss at Iowa State. The Wildcats are 11-2 at home and 5-3 ATS and 6-2 S/U at home vs. the Cyclones with a 5-3 ATS mark. Last year they were favored by 3.5 at home and won by 12, 63-51. Supporting angles say to Play Against - An underdog (IOWA ST) - after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less. (116-66 over the last 5 seasons.) and Play On - A favorite (KANSAS ST) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. (125-70 since 1997.) WIN
Tuesday, February 7, 2006:
3 BONES Wichita St. (+6) over N. Iowa: These two teams are nearly identical as both are 10-3 in conference games and 1 game separates them in the overall standings. Wichita State has been on a hot streak as they have gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games (8-1 SU). Wichita State is also a solid 7-3 ATS on the road this season. Wichita State scores more, rebounds more, and has a better bench than N. Iowa. In fact, Wichita State out rebounds their opponents by an average of 6.3 per game. Northern Iowa has gone 1-2 ATS in their last 3. N. Iowa won the earlier contest this season, so Wichita will be looking for some road revenge tonight. I'll grab the 6 points in this spot. LOSS
Monday, February 6, 2006:
3 BONES Louisville (+3) over Cincinnati: The Cardinal knows that they have to go on a win streak to have a shot at the NCAA tourney. With size, a bench advantage, and healthy Taquan Dean tonight, I like them to win over Cincy. Louisville has gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bearcats. Cincinnati has lost 5 games in a row ATS and 9 of their last 10. One of those losses was an earlier loss to Louisville by 17 points. Cincinnati is now just 3-8 ATS at home and have been outscored by an average of 5 points in their last 5 games. The Cardinals play better defense and shoot better from the field and that should get them over the hump tonight. LOSS
2 BONES Delaware (-6) over James Madison: As one handicapper I know said, "James Madison may be the worst team in college basketball". This has be evident in their last 10 games where they are 0-10 SU (2-8 ATS) with every loss a double digit blowout. The average 14 points less than their opponents this season in scoring and that even holds true at home. In their last 5 games they have been outscored by 21.8 points. Delaware matches up well against J. Madison and they have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. That includes their last 6 games where they have covered 5 times. LOSS
Sunday, February 5, 2006:
3 BONES Iowa State (-2.5) over Colorado: The Cyclones are in a must win mode and will be more than ready for the stampeding Buffalos. Iowa State has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and 10-2 since last season after losing SU + ATS. They have also gone a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as PK->2.5 point favorites. Colorado has won 5 games in a row, getting themselves ranked in the top 25. This is not a good spot for them as they have gone 0-9 ATS since 2000 in conference after winning SU + losing ATS. Also since 2000 they have gone 3-10 ATS as dogs in conference after 2 wins in a row. Colorado has gone 2-10-1 ATS in PK->2.5 point games after a win since last season. I'll lay the points at home with Iowa State today. WIN
Saturday, February 4, 2006:
5 BONES San Diego St./Colorado St. OVER 148: This game seems destined to go over due to many key stats. San Diego St. has gone over in all 10 conference games they have played after a win dating back to last season. They have also gone over in 10 straight games after an over as they have gone over in 9 straight overall. Since last season, San Diego St. has gone over in 10 of their 12 games on the road and teams have gone over in 16 of 20 games as road favorites of PK->2.5 in conference after 2 overs. Colorado State has gone over in 5 of their last 7 games overall and have given up 78.5 points per game over their last 4 games. With the last 3 meetings going over the total, I'm thinking there is a great shot that this is the 4th straight. WIN
Wednesday, February 1, 2006:
4 BONES Rutgers (+8) over Syracuse: The Scarlet Knights have played good basketball this season and lately as well. The have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and are a solid 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Syracuse has struggled at home as they have gone 3-8-1 ATS this season. Syracuse has lost 4 games in a row SU + ATS and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites in conference after an under. Syracuse has also gone just 1-11 ATS in their last12 games as favorites after losing 2 in a row ATS. Teams playing at home in conference after losing 4 games in a row SU + ATS this season have gone just 5-14 ATS. I expect Rutgers to give Syracuse all they can handle tonight. WIN
Tuesday, January 31, 2006:
2 BONES Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech OVER 135.5: I like this game to shoot over this total tonight. Neither of these teams have bothered to play decent defense in their recent games and it shows by the points they have allowed. Georgia Tech has gone over in 4 of their 6 road games this season where they have averaged a total of 157 points. They have also gone over in 3 of their last 5 games where they have averaged 150 points. Virginia Tech has gone over in 3 straight games and has averaged a total of 149 points in those games. This total was picked to go over by a consensus of formulas that has picked accurately 66% of the time this season. LOSS
2 BONES Mississippi (+6) over Florida: The Gators are without their top scorer and best defender in Lee Humphrey and will be playing with their second leading scorer Brewer being hobbled by an ankle injury. Florida has lost 2 straight games on the road and will face a Mississippi team that is a strong 10-2 at home. Mississippi has gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and has won 3 in a row ATS at home. The Rebels played tough against a very good LSU team at home in their last game and I expect the same kind of effort tonight. The Rebel should hang close enough to cover if not win the game outright. LOSS
Saturday, January 28, 2006:
2 BONES Louisville (-1) over Rutgers: The Cardinal have their best player back in Taquan Dean and that should make the difference as it did the last game they played. Before his return the Cardinal lost 4 games in their last 10, but were against very tough opponents (UConn, Villanova, at St. Johns, and Pitt). Teams have gone 18-7 ATS this seasons as PK->2.5 point favorites in conference after winning + going under. Rutgers has lost 3 games in a row SU, are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 overall, and 3-5 ATS at home this season. Teams have gone 1-10-1 ATS in PK->2.5 point games this season at home in conference after losing ATS + going over at home. LOSS
Thursday, January 26, 2006:
2 BONES South Alabama/Denver OVER 132.5: This game was a formulas consensus pick from a system that has won 70.7% of the totals it has picked this season. Over the last 5 games for each team, they have each averaged over this total (South Alabama 137 and Denver 135). South Alabama has gone over the total in 3 of their 4 road games with a line this season and their average score was 141 points. Denver has gone over in 5 of the 7 lined games they have had at home so far this season. Teams have gone over in 16 of the 22 games played this season as home favorites in conference after losing 2 games in a row SU + ATS on the road. I sniff a weak total line here and I throw two bones on it. LOSS
Wednesday, January 25, 2006:
4 BONES Louisville (-1) over Cincinnati : The Cardinal have had a disappointing season so far, but they know they must win tonight's game in order to start turning it around. Louisville has gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cincinnati and outscores opponents by an average of 12 points at home. The Cardinal will find the Bearcats easy to play after their last 3 games against UConn, St. Johns on the road, and Pitt. Cincinnati has gone 0-8-1 ATS on the road after winning + going under at home since the 2000 season. Cincinnati has struggled recently as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games ATS. I like the Cardinal to get back on track at home tonight. Big factor tonight as well: Taquan Dean is returning to spark Louisville. WIN
Tuesday, January 24, 2006:
2 BONES Notre Dame (-2) over Georgetown : The Irish should put forth their strongest effort of the year as they defend their home court against this Georgetown team. The Hoyas knocked off undefeated Duke this past weekend and are due for a let down on the road. Georgetown has gone 1-11 ATS since 2000 when playing in conference after winning ATS + going over. Teams have gone 5-16-1 ATS in their last 20 being played as PK_>2.5 point dogs in conference3 after winning ATS. Teams have gone 20-8 ATS this seasons when playing as home favorites of PK->2.5 in conference after winning ATS. LOSS
Monday, January 23, 2006:
2 BONES San Francisco (+9.5) over Gonzaga : San Francisco has had recent success against Gonzaga as they won both meetings ATS last season, winning one of those games SU. Gonzaga has lost 2 games in a row ATS, while San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 ATS. Teams have gone 1-9 ATS as road favorites of 7->9.5 points after going under on the road since last season (Gonzaga's position). Teams have gone 17-6 ATS as home dogs in conference after going under at home this season (San Francisco's position). San Francisco plays better defense and their bench should keep them close enough in this game to get the cover. WIN
Saturday, January 21, 2006:
2 BONES Charleston/Wofford OVER 134.5 : This game was a consensus pick by one of our formulas that has won 73.7% of the totals played this season. Charleston has averaged 144 points in their games this season and have gone over in 2 straight games. Teams have gone over in 12 of 15 games this season on the road in conference after winning 2 games in a row ATS on the road. This is the third lowest total Charleston has seen on one of their games this season. Wofford has gone over in 4 of their last 6 games and have averaged 137 points in their last 5 games. Teams have gone over in 10 of 12 games this season as home favorites of PK->2.5 in conference after wining ATS + going under the total. LOSS
3 BONES Colorado State/Texas Christian OVER 136.5 : This game is another game with a consensus of formulas picking it to win, this formula has gone a perfect 4-0 so far this season. Colorado State has gone over in 4 of their last 5 lined games and are averaging totals of 139 a game on the road this season. TCU has gone over in 3 of their last 4 overall. Teams have gone over in 11 of 12 games since 2000 as dogs in conference after losing 2 in a row SU + ATS and going over. Teams have also gone over in 22 of 28 since 2000 at home in a 3->6.5 point spread game after losing 5 games in a row. This games pace should be high as both teams have been much improved on offense since early on in the season. WIN
2 BONES San Diego State (-7.5) over BYU : This picks was picked by a consensus of formulas that have won 83.3% of the games it has predicted ATS this season. BYU has lost 5 in a row ATS on the road after winning at home and 7 in a row ATS as dogs after winning. BYU is 3-11-1 ATS since 2000 as road dogs in conference after winning. San Diego State has won 6 in a row ATS and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with BYU. Teams have gone 11-2 ATS as home favorites of 7->9.5 in conference after going over in 2 straight games this season. San Diego State has gone a nice 4-1 ATS at home this season and BYU has gone just 1-4 ATS on the road. WIN
Thursday, January 19, 2006:
2 BONES Air Force (-9.5) over Utah : Often you won't see Utah being underdogs by this many points, but in this spot it is understandable. Utah has gone just 1-3 ATS on the road and Air Force has gone 10 SU at home this season (3-1 ATS, winning by an average of 20 points a game). Air Force is 6-1 ATS since 2000 as 10->13.5 point home favorites. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 10->13.5 in conference after winning + going over at home since last season. Teams playing on the road after losing 2 games in a row and going over have gone 1-9-1 ATS since last season. I'll lay the points at home with Air Force. WIN
Wednesday, January 18, 2006:
2 BONES North Carolina State (+12) over Duke : Top ranked and undefeated Duke will have their hands full in this match up against a well balanced NC State team. NC State has gone a strong 14-2 SU this season, with their two losses coming on the road to tough teams in Iowa and North Carolina. The Wolfpack play excellent defense as they allow only 61 points per game and opponents only shoot 38% from the field. The Wolfpack not only play better defense, but they rebound better than Duke. Duke has gone just 3-4 ATS at home this season and NC State is 4-1 ATS on the road. Duke has won 3 of the last 4 meetings ATS, but only once was it by more than 12 points. LOSS
Tuesday, January 17, 2006:
Monday, January 16, 2006:
2 BONES Connecticut/Syracuse UNDER 148 : UConn comes into their meeting with Syracuse having gone under in 6 of their 7 meetings with the Orangemen. Syracuse should be able to dictate the flow of the game at home and the under has succeeded nicely in this spot in recent history. Since the 2000 season, the under is 12-1 when they play as dogs in conference after going under in their previous game. Also in that time span, the under has gone 9-1 when they play at home in conference after going under on the road. Since the 2000 season, teams have gone under in 15 of the 18 games as home dogs in conference after winning ATS and going under on the road. LOSS
Saturday, January 14, 2006:
2 BONES Southern Mississippi/Tulsa Over 121: This game has a very low total put on it and it seems the over has a very good chance to cover. S. Miss. has averaged 137 points in their last 5 games, where their defense has allowed opponents to score over 70 points per game. Tulsa has averaged a total of 129 points a game in their last 5 and haven't seen a total posted this low in one of their games all season long. The way both of these teams play on defense, the offenses should average more than they usually do, thus bringing the total easily over the 121 mark. WIN
2 BONES Akron (-7.5) over Northern Illinois: The Zips have been on a hot roll and should continue tonight as they have won 7 games in a row ATS. Akron has gone 10-1 ATS as home favorites after winning 2 in a row ATS since the 2000 season. Teams have gone 27-11 ATS since the 2000 season as 7->9.5 point favorites in conference after winning 6 games in a row ATS. Northern Illinois has lost 5 in a row ATS and are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Akron. With Nothern Illinois going just 2-4 ATS on the road this season, hard to see them being able to compete on the road tonight. WIN
Friday, January 13, 2006:
2 BONES Stanford (-1) over California: I'll lay the point here and go with the home team that has dominated recent series between these two teams. Cal has lost 3 meetings in a row ATS and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests. Cal has lost 4 straight meetings and 5 straight at Stanford. Stanford is starting to play their best ball this season as they have won 4 of their last 6 SU. Stanford outscores opponents by an average of 10 a game at home, while out rebounding them by 6. Teams have gone 11-1-2 ATS this season as PK->2.5 point favorites after going under at home (Stanford's position). WIN
Thursday, January 12, 2006:
2 BONES Fairfield (+5.5) over Niagra: I'll grab the points in this contest as these teams seem to be heading in opposite directions. Fairfield has gone 3-1 SU in their last 4 and Niagra has lost 3 in a row SU + ATS (1-7 ATS in their last 8). Niagra has been outscored by an average of 12 points a game in their last 5 and they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at home in conference after 2 road games. Teams have gone 8-20-1 ATS since 2000 as home favorites in conference after losing 2 in a row and going under. Fairfield has gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as dogs of 3->6.5 in conference after a road game. WIN
2 BONES Drexel (-3.5) over NC Wilmington: Drexel looks like a solid play here as they are playing great basketball having won 6 of their last 7 games SU after a dismal start to the season. Drexel outscores opponents by an average of 8 points a game at home and they have gone 11-2 ATS as home favorites after a loss dating back to the 2000 season. Teams have gone 13-3 ATS since the 2000 season as home favorites of 3->6.5 in conference after losing SU + winning ATS + going over on the road. NC Wilmington has gone 2-3 ATS since a hot 8-1 start. LOSS
Wednesday, January 11, 2006:
3 BONES Charlotte/LaSalle Under 144: Just like in the pros with our Milwaukee/Indiana total pick tonight, this game seems like one where the lines have been adjusted too far in the favor of the under. Charlotte hasn't seen a total for any of their game this high in their last 6 games and they have gone under in 4 of the 5 games this season where the line has been 140 or above. LaSalle has not seen a total line this high all season in the 7 games there was a total line (books have adjusted to them going over in 5 straight). Both of these teams average 140 points in their games they have played this season, so it's hard for me to figure out when this one isn't set a little lower. WIN
2 BONES Syracuse (+2) over Notre Dame: The Orangemen have excelled in this position in the past and the Irish have faltered. Syracuse has gone 12-2 ATS in PK->2.5 games on the road in conference after winning since the 2000 season. They are also 9-0 ATS on the road after playing 3 in a row at home since the 2000 season. Notre Dame has gone 1-12-2 ATS as home favorites in conference after losing SU + ATS since the 2000 season. The Irish have lost 5 straight games ATS at home following a loss and will have their hands full trying to win and cover against a better team tonight. WIN
Tuesday, January 10, 2006:
3 BONES NC State/Boston College Over 136.5: I haven't played many totals so far this season in College hoops, but this one is too good to pass up. NC State has gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and Boston College has gone over in 4 of their last 5. Both teams are playing a conference game after losing SU + ATS on the road in their previous game. When team play in that situation this season, the Over is 46-31 in their next game. Over the last 5 games, both teams have averaged a total of 139 points a game. Boston College has gone over in all 4 games at home this season and are 5th in the country in FG%. Teams playing in NC States position of road dogs of 3->6.5 points in a division game after an over have gone over in 22 of the next 31 games. WIN
Monday, January 9, 2006:
Texas (-4.5) over Chicago: The Longhorns have turned their season back on the right track after their two embarrassing losses to Duke and Tennessee. They have won all 4 games since then, including a huge road win at Memphis. Texas has gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as road favorites after a home game and are 4-2 ATS as favorites so far this season. Iowa State has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall and teams have gone 4-13 ATS since last season as home dogs in conference after losing 2 in a row ATS at home. Texas should dominate the board as they out rebound opponents by an average of 10 a game and Iowa State is out rebounded by an average of 3 a game. WIN
Sunday, January 8, 2006:
Bradley (+4) over Southern Illinois: These two teams have very similar records, but Bradley should have enough advantage here to get the close cover or the win outright. Bradley scores 10 more points a game on average and shoots much better from the field than Southern Illinois. Bradley should win this one on the boards as they out rebound opponents by an average of 5 a game, while Southern Illinois gets out rebounded by 2 per game. Teams have gone just 4-15-1 ATS since last season when playing after winning 7 games in a row ATS. Southern Illinois' hot streak ATS should stop today. LOSS
Saturday, January 7, 2006:
Oregon (+5.5) over Stanford: Oregon goes on the road in a spot where they are in good shape to get a win. Oregon has the better record of the two teams, yet they are getting an almost two basket spot. Oregon has been a disappointment ATS as they have lost 8 in a row against the number, but this point spread looks like the line makers have overcompensated and are begging them to cover a game. Oregon shoots 46.2% from the field and allows opponents to shoot 43.3% from the field. Stanford shoots 40.4% from the field and allows opponents to shoot 44.3%. What makes us like this pick even more is that Stanford's leading scorer, rebounder, and steals man in Haryasz has a bum ankle going into the contest. WIN
Colorado State (+3) over New Mexico: The Rams are another team this Saturday that shouldn't be getting as many points as they are. I don't think they should be getting points at all as the Lobos have lost 3 in a row ATS and are coming off a 15 point thrashing to Utah. New Mexico has gone just 3-7 ATS this season and Colorado State has gone 6-3 ATS, including a 4-2 ATS mark on the road. Colorado State has shot over 48% this season and allowed opponents to shoot just 38.5%. New Mexico has shot 45% this season and has allowed opponents to shoot the same percentage. Colorado should have the edge on the boards as well so I'll grab the 3 points and the road dogs tonight. WIN
Thursday, January 5, 2006:
Towson (+9) over Old Dominion: Old Dominion continues to be big favorites based on reputation more than their play this season. Old Dominion has lost 4 games in a row ATS and has struggled on the road, losing 3 in a row both ATS and SU. Despite these stats ATS, the books still are laying 9 points on the road in a conference game tonight. Towson will not be a cake walk as they have won 2 games in a row SU + ATS on the road. One of those against a solid Charleston team. Towson won both meetings ATS last season and should be able to compete with confidence tonight. Teams has gone 17-2 ATS since 2000 as home dogs of 7->9.5 points in conference after winning SU + ATS on the road. LOSS
Michigan State (+7) over Illinois: In this huge Big 10 contest we will grab the points with the experienced Spartans. Michigan State has 4 starters back from last years final four team and will be seeking revenge for losses in recent years to Illinois. Michigan State has been solid on the road this season as they have shot over 50% from the field (over 51% on the road) while scoring 82.3 points per game. The Spartans have won 13 games in a row ATS since the 2001 season when playing on the road in conference after 2 previous home games. Illinois undefeated mark may be why they are laying so many points here, but this team is not as strong as the one that nearly went undefeated last season. The Spartans are ranked just one spot less than Illinois and should be able to keep it close tonight. LOSS
Wednesday, January 4, 2006:
Syracuse (-11.5) over Texas El Paso: Syracuse has enjoyed the comfort of playing at home for almost all of their game this season and should be solid tonight against a UTEP team playing their second road game in a row. UTEP will be shorthanded tonight with one of their top scorers in Jackson out and a few other players banged up. Syracuse will be playing their 9th home game in a row and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Syracuse has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home after winning 3 games in a row at home (12-4-1 since the 2000 season). Teams have gone 18-10 ATS since last season as home favorites of 10->13.5 in non conference games after 4 straight home games. WIN
Tuesday, January 3, 2006:
Marquette (+10) over Connecticut: Marquette is well prepared for this match up as their crowd will be packed and pumped for the opportunity to knock off the Huskies. Marquette has gone 6-1 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game. Marquette's first Big East game should be well contested. UConn hasn't faced this good of a team in over a month and has not fared well ATS in this position in the past. The Huskies are just 1-12 ATS since the 2000 season as road favorites after winning 2 in a row (losing 10 in a row ATS). With UConn's best player Gay rolling his ankle last Friday, he may not be able to take over the game. I'll grab the 10 points for the home cover. WIN
E. Carolina (+19.5) over Wake Forest: Wake has had issues covering the spread in this situation in the past. Wake Forest has lost 11 straight games ATS in non conference play at home. The have not fared well ATS at home this season as they are 0-5 ATS. Wake has also gone just 4-11 ATS as favorites in non-conference after a win since last season. Since last season, teams have gone 14-4-1 ATS as road dogs of 17->19.5 in non conference games after 2 wins. E. Carolina should be able to keep close on the board and help them cover this high spread. E. Carolina has gone 2-1 ATS on the road this season and are in a nice spot to keep it close enough tonight. WIN
Saturday, December 31, 2005:
Arizona (+4.5) over Washington: The Wildcat's should be very competitive in this Pac 10 game as they look to knock off the highly ranked Huskies. Arizona has gone 18-5 ATS as dogs dating back to the 2000 season. Arizona has gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and are coming off an 18 point win at Washington State earlier this week. Washington has gone 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall and teams playing as home favorites of 3->6.5 after winning 3 in a row this season have gone just 1-8 ATS. Arizona plays much better defense and takes care of the ball well. These teams are evenly matched and I'll grab the points here. WIN
Drake (+6) over S. Illinois: Drake has lost 10 games in a row to S. Illinois and will be pumped to get a win on what has been a somewhat disappointing year for S. Illinois. Drake has gone 6-0 ATS on the road this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 8 a game this season. Drake has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings and teams have gone 11-3 ATS since last season as road dogs of 3->6.5 points after going under. Teams have gone 1-8 ATS this season as home favorites of 3->6.5 points after 3 wins in a row. Also since last season, teams have gone 2-13 ATS as home favorites after winning SU + ATS on the road. LOSS
Wisconsin (+4.5) over Pittsburgh: The Badgers are 3-1 ATS on the road this season and should make a statement tonight at Pitt. Wisconsin has a similar record to Pitt, but they have played a tougher schedule. Pitt has gone 10-0 SU this season, but only 5 of those games were lined (the 5 that weren't lined were because of how weak the opponent was). Teams have gone just 6-23-1 ATS since last season at home in non conference games after winning 8 in a row. Teams have gone 13-1 ATS on the road after playing 4 at home since last season. Teams have gone 18-5 ATS as road dogs in non conference games after 5 home games since last season. LOSS
Friday, December 30, 2005:
St. Louis (+5) over Iowa: The Hawkeye's are in a situation that usually doesn't favor them when it comes to covering the spread. Iowa has gone 1-11 ATS in their last 12 as favorites after winning and they are 1-17 ATS in their last 18 non conference games as favorites after playing 2 in a row at home. Iowa has gone 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 on the road, while St. Louis has gone 3-0 ATS at home this season (4-1 SU). St. Louis won the meeting ATS and should put forth a strong effort at home like they did against Gonzaga where they lost by just 3 points. St. Louis shoots better and turns the ball over less than the Hawkeyes. Should be a close game tonight. LOSS
Thursday, December 29, 2005:
Arizona State (+16) over Washington: The Sun Devils should be put on a good performance tonight as they are confident after two wins in a row. Teams have gone 16-3 ATS since last season as road dogs of 14->16.5 in conference games after 2 straight wins. One of those games was ASU's trip to Washington last season when they lost by just 8 as 14 points dogs. Arizona State has covered the spread in their last 2 trips to Washington. Washington has lost 3 in a row ATS and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 lined games. Teams have gone 5-16 ATS as home favorites of 14->16.5 points the last 2 seasons after winning 6 games in a row. Arizona State has gone 4-2 ATS in their 6 lined games this season and should be competitive enough tonight. LOSS
Wednesday, December 28, 2005:
Dartmouth (+19.5) over New Mexico: This is a lot of points for the host of the tournament at to be laying at home and I'll grad them. Dartmouth's perimeter shooting should keep them close enough as they shoot a good 42% from 3's on the road. This is Dartmouth's 3rd lined game of the season and they are 1-0-1 ATS. New Mexico has gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and teams have gone 0-12 ATS since last season as home favorites of 17->19.5 after losing ATS + going under. Teams in Dartmouth's position of being 17->19.5 point road dogs in non conference games after losing at home have gone 22-8 ATS since 2000. WIN
Tuesday, December 27, 2005:
Providence (+8.5) over San Diego State: These teams have nearly identical records, the big difference here is the level of competition. Providence has played great teams, while San Diego State has played powder puffs all season. Providence has gone 2-0-1 ATS in their last 3 games and are in a grove as they will be playing their 5th home game in a row. San Diego State has been outscored by an average of 14 points a game on the road this season and have gone just 1-3 ATS in their last 4. San Diego State will be without their leading scorer and rebounder in Jeremy Slaughter. I like the Friars in a blow out tonight. WIN
Friday, December 23, 2005:
Sienna/Massachusetts Under 140: Sienna and UMass played under the total in their last meeting back in 2000 and this one should follow suit. Both of these teams are giving up just 65 points per game in their last 5, and UMass allows just 54.7 a game when they play at home. UMass only allows a FG% of under 40% for the season at home. Teams playing in Sienna's position of road dogs of 10->13.5 points in a non conference game after losing + going under this season this season have gone under in 9 of those 11 games. This game should be at a lower tempo with both teams shooting under their normal shooting percentage. LOSS
Thursday, December 22, 2005:
La Salle (+16.5) over Villanova: Villanova has the attention of the media as they are undefeated this season and are highly ranked. La Salle is also undefeated at 7-0, all be it against weaker competition, but they still have the confidence of not losing a game. Villanova should have the advantage on the boards and coming off the bench. La Salle won games earlier this week on Sunday and on Tuesday so they are finely tuned. Villanova hasn't seen game action in the last 9 days. Teams have gone 19-7 ATS since 2000 when playing as road dogs of 14->16.5 after winning 5 games in a row (La Salle's position tonight). Villanova should win this game, but I don't think the victory will come easily. LOSS
Wednesday, December 21, 2005:
Illinois Chicago (+13) over Syracuse: Illinois Chicago Flames should be competitive tonight on the road as they have played good on the road this season, outscoring opponent on average. The Flames have impressive road wins against Georgia Tech and Northwestern. The Flames have won 5 in a row ATS as 10->13.5 point dogs and are usually a solid play after a loss ATS as they are 31-16 ATS in that situation since 2000. Teams have gone 16-4 ATS as dogs after winning SU + losing ATS + going under since 2000. The Flames have a better bench and take care of the ball better than Syracuse. Syracuse has the national attention of being great, so at times they lay lines that don't seem to make sense to the smart bettor. LOSS
Tuesday, December 20, 2005:
Charleston (-9) over Florida Atlantic: Florida Atlantic has gone 0-3 on the road this season and has not played in a lined game this year. They are out matched talent wise and in many of the match up categories. Florida Atlantic shot a measly 14 of 60 from the field in their last game and they have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field so far this season. Charleston Southern has won the last 2 meetings between the two by totals of 23 and 18. Charleston Southern has blown out opponents on 3 occasions this season and play better defense and offense than Atlantic. The big advantage comes on the boards as Florida Atlantic has been out rebounded by an average of 3 a game this season, while Charleston Southern out rebounds opponents by 5 a game. WIN
Monday, December 19, 2005:
E. Illinois (+10) over E. Kentucky: This battle is between two of the worst teams so far in college hoops. E. Illinois is desperate as they are winless, but matchup well in this contest. E. Kentucky has been less than impressive as they are a lowly 1-6 ATS so far this season and have been blown out in their last 2 games. E. Kentucky has been outrebounded by an average of 7 a game this season and allows over 50% shooting from the field a game, including a horrible 43.4% from beyond the arc. E. Illinois should take advantage of these categories, especially from 3-point land where they have shot 43% over their last 5 games. E. Illinois should be able to keep this one close enough to get the cover. WIN
Saturday, December 17, 2005:
Texas (-13) over Tennessee: After the Longhorns were blown out at Duke last week, they are seething to get a better performance today and it should be at the expense of the Volunteers. Texas has outscored opponents by an average of 20 points a game this season, even including the 31 point loss at Duke. Texas wins by an average of 31 at home and may be a little slighted in points due to their performance last week. Tennessee hasn't seen game action in 11 days and will be going on the road for the first time this season. The Vols have gone just 4-14 ATS in non conference games after losing ATS since 2000. LOSS
Memphis (-9) over Mississippi: Memphis will look to blow out a much lesser opponent in Ole Miss. Memphis will seek revenge for a home loss to the Rebels last season and the Tigers have gone an amazing 54-4-1 ATS in revenge wins. Since 2000, Memphis has also gone 26-11-1 ATS after 4 straight wins and 23-9 ATS after winning on the road. Mississippi has only played one quality opponent this season and that was a 53 point loss to New Mexico. Since last season, teams have gone 2-13 ATS as home dogs of 10->13.5 after winning a game. Mississippi seems to be in a whole lot of trouble today. WIN
Pacific (-5.5) over Fresno State: Pacific looks to be in a good spot to get a home win and a cover as they dominate nearly all matchups with Fresno St. Pacific has the edge in FG%, FT %, defense, rebounding, turn overs, and bench play. Last season Pacific won on the road at Fresno and they have won 4 of their last 5 games overall ATS. Pacific outscores opponents by an average of 18 a game at home, where they shoot a solid 48% from the field. Hard to see Fresno matching that as they allow 48% shooting on the road. Pacific should be able to mop them up on the boards too as Fresno State is being out rebounded by 6 a game so far this season. WIN
Friday, December 16, 2005:
Cleveland State (+27) over Michigan: The Vikings will be on the road in a tough environment, but Izzo may let up on the reins a little in this contest. Cleveland States head coach Mike Garland coached under Izzo and the two are good friends. Cleveland State has won their last 2 games ATS. They play good enough defense and has a good enough bench to cover in garbage time. Michigan State has gone 0-3 ATS so far this season when it comes to laying double digit spreads. Since last season, teams have gone 3-11 ATS as home favorites of 24.5->26.5 after winning 3 games in a row. I'll take my chances with the points in this one. WIN
Thursday, December 15, 2005:
Wisconsin (-9.5) over Wisconsin Milwaukee: The Badgers have a good deal of young talent and should be able to take advantage of lesser talented team at home, where they have dominated competition in the past. Wisconsin rebounds better, scores more, has a stronger bench, and turns the ball over less. Teams have gone 14-3 ATS as home favorites of 7->9.5 after winning + going under at home in 2 straight games since the 2000 season. Wisconsin outscores opponents by an average of 14 points overall, and by 18 points a game at home. Wisconsin Milwaukee's head coach Jeter coached under the Badgers head coach Ryan. Ryan should be determined to game plan well for this rivalry and lead the Badgers to their 4th straight victory in this series both SU + ATS. LOSS
Wednesday, December 14, 2005:
Minnesota (-4) over Alabama Birmingham: The Gophers should have strong home crowd behind them and they should be able to put up a strong performance over the Blazers. This game will most likely be decided on the boards where the Gophers have a huge advantage. Minnesota has out rebounded opponents by an average of nearly 10 a game, while UAB has been out rebounded this season by an average of 5 a game. UAB has been outscored on average on the road and Minnesota has outscored opponents by 11 a game at home this season. Minnesota has gone 10-2 ATS since last season after winning at home and they have won 3 games in a row SU. LOSS
Ohio (+7) over Cincinnati: The Bobcats don't have to travel far for this road game and they should be ready for a close game as they have played their last 2 games on the road and won both of them SU and ATS. Ohio shoots a better percentage from the field, plays better defense, and creates more turnovers than they will give up. Cincinnati has gone just 1-4 ATS so far this season, with their win coming in their last game on the road at Vanderbilt. With the upset win being led by a freshman Downey, it seems a letdown is likely in this scenario. The Bearcats should have their hands full tonight with a MAC preseason favorite that has played like it so far this season. LOSS
Saturday, December 10, 2005:
Oklahoma State (+7.5) over Gonzaga: The Cowboys should be in a good spot to cover on the road in this big matchup. Oklahoma State has outscored their opponents by 15 a game this season, so getting 7.5 points seems kind of large. The Cowboys will be seeking revenge for a loss to Gonzaga at home last season and will be fired up after an upset loss at home to Northwestern State in their last game. Since last season teams have gone 18-5 ATS as road dogs in a non-conference game after 5 home games. Gonzaga has gone just 2-11 ATS as favorites in non-conference games since last season. They are also just 3-13 ATS as home favorites after winning 2 in a row ATS since the 2000 season. Gonzaga has gone just 1-2 ATS at home so far this season and will find it tough pulling away in this one. WIN
Ohio (-1) over Rhode Island: Both of these teams are off to nice starts this season, but the Bobcats seem to hold an advantage in this game. Ohio has won all 3 games they have played this season and won their only lined game of the season both SU + ATS on the road at Marist. Ohio averages more points per game and can shoot the better than their opponent, not to mention the handle the ball better as well. Rhode Island is banged up health wise and has gone just 6-18-1 ATS at home after a home game since the 2000 season. Since the 2000 season, teams have gone 6-25 ATS at home in non-conference games after winning and going over at home in their previous two games. WIN
Florida International (+15.5) over Notre Dame: With Notre Dames upset win over Alabama making headlines, it seem the odds makers boosted up the line for the national coverage. Florida Int. has only been outscored by an average of 7 points a game in their last 5 games and should shoot the ball better than they have so far this season. Florida International has a strong bench that should pull them within a cover if the situation gets to that point. Overall on the season, Florida Int. averages just 3 points less a game than their opponents. Notre Dame may have a letdown after their big upset win and could not come out as intense as they should. Notre Dame has gone 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games as favorite when they went over in their previous game. LOSS
Friday, December 9, 2005:
Sienna/Niagra Under 148: This total seems set too high as both of these teams have averaged a total under 148 so far this season. Sienna has average 146 points a game this season while Niagra has averaged just 140. Niagra has gone under the total in their last 2 games and are shooting under 40% on the season. This pick was a 3-0 consensus formula pick from a system that has won nearly 69% of the totals it has predicted so far this season. LOSS
Thursday, December 8, 2005:
Eastern Kentucky (+9.5) over Murray State: Eastern Kentucky is in a position on the road where they should be able to cover this spread. They have a better shooting percentage all around over Murray State (from the field, free throw line, and three pointers). In fact they are deadly from the perimeter shooting 43%. Murray State has struggled to cover in meetings between these two teams as they have gone just 2-6 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is 2-4 on the season, but 3 of those losses are to Georgia, Tennessee, and Wisconsin (whom they took to OT). Eastern Kentucky has a better bench and should be able to hand with Murray State tonight. LOSS
Wednesday, December 7, 2005:
Central Michigan (+19) over Dayton: Central Michigan has been less than impressive this season, but that is mostly due to their lack of shots falling. The shooting should improve, especially from 3 point land in this game. Central Michigan turns the ball over less and shoot better from the line than Dayton, both keys to success on the road. Central Michigan has lost by an average of 11 while the Fliers have won by an average of 8. For Dayton this is their 4th game in 9 days and they have gone 7-18 ATS as favorites in non-conference games after a win. Central Michigan is playing in a position where teams have gone 18-4 ATS playing as road dogs of 17->19.5 points in a non-conference game after losing ATS at home since 2000. LOSS