2004 – 2005 NBA Top Notch Picks
More Results from the 2004-2005 NBA Basketball Season
Saturday, April 23, 2005:
Philadelphia (+9.5) over Detroit: The defending champs come into the playoffs facing a tough Sixers team. The Sixers will have Webber back (healthy) and should pose more of a threat in game one than the books are giving. Philadelphia has played very well on the road of late as they have gone 3-1 both SU and ATS against 4 playoff teams from the East. The Sixers have also played well enough to beat the Pistons in the last month of the season as they took 3 of the 4 meetings ATS this season between the two teams. Detroit is not playing their best basketball heading into the playoffs as they have gone just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall. This pick is backed by a consensus of formulas we have that have won 78% of the time this season, going 42-12 ATS. Loss: The Sixers blow a 16 point lead and don't compete the second half.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005:
Boston (+5) over New Jersey: The Nets have everything to play for by winning and getting in the playoffs. Laying 5 points on the road at a division winner is a tough task. The Nets have eliminated the Celtics 2 of the last 3 years in the playoff and the Celtics can return the favor tonight by beating the Nets, so the effort by Boston should be there. The Celtics were embarrassed by the Nets in New Jersey on April 9th and Paul Pierce and company weren't pleased. As they sat on the bench when the game was out of reach, Carter and Kidd were left in the game to embarrass the bench by throwing ally oops. The Celts may use this as momentum to win as well. Boston has gone 13-3 ATS as dogs in conference after 2 unders on the road since 1990, 10-0-1 ATS in conference games with a 4->5.5 points spread after 3 unders since the 2000 season, and 10-2 ATS this season at home in conference after going under. Loss: Celtics blow a big lead, lose by 9.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005:
Denver (-9.5) over Portland: The playoff bound Nuggets will try to improve their position against one of the worst teams in the western conference. Portland has struggled against the Nuggets as they have gone just 2-15-1 ATS in their meetings with the Nuggets since the 2000 season. Teams have gone just 5-22-1 ATS this season as road dogs of 8->9.5 after losing ATS on the road (Portland's position). Denver has gone an impressive 12-1-1 ATS in conference games after going over in 3 in a row since last season. They have also gone 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games at home and have cashed in on 6 games in a row as home favorites following a game where they went over on the road. Loss: Denver wins, but not by enough to cover.
Monday, April 18, 2005:
Memphis (+4) over San Antonio: The Grizzlies will return home and try to get even with the Spurs after getting embarrassed in San Antonio last week. The Spurs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games ATS and have gone a measly 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games away from home. Memphis has excelled ATS in this situation the past few seasons. The Grizz have gone 9-1 ATS at home after playing 4 games on the road dating back to the 2000 season. Since last season, Memphis has gone 9-1 ATS as home dogs after playing a road game (4-0 against the Spurs). Memphis has dropped 5 in a row ATS, but line makers usually adjust to this. Since last season in the NBA, teams have gone 11-1-2 ATS as dogs in division games after losing 5 in a row ATS. Win: Memphis wins the game outright by 2 points.
Sunday, April 17, 2005:
Philadelphia (+4) over New Jersey: The Sixers will be looking to clinch a playoff berth with a win. New Jersey is playing for a spot as well, so this should be a very close game. With it being as close as it should be, getting 4 points seems to have value. Especially when the Sixers hold an advantage in key matchup categories such as ppg, fg%, ft%, rebounds, and bench play. Philadelphia has gone 19-14 ATS as road dogs this season and will be looking to return the favor from a game in March when the Nets won in Philadelphia. Loss: The Sixers lose big and can't clinch playoff spot.
Saturday, April 16, 2005:
Chicago (-6.5) over Atlanta: The Bulls are laying a good deal of points on the road, but with good reason. The Hawks are perhaps the worst team in the NBA as they were blown out by expansion Charlotte the other night by 20 points. Atlanta has not fared well with Chicago this season as they are 0-3 ATS and SU, losing by totals of 10, 25, and 14. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games ATS and should be able to dominate as they look to solidify playoff positioning. Chicago has gone 10-2-2 ATS this season on the road after going under in their previous game. The Bulls are also 16-3-2 ATS this season after going under at home. We'll lay the points as the Hawks have started their vacationing early again this season. Win: Bulls erase a 19 point deficit for a 9 point win.
Friday, April 15, 2005:
Portland (+9.5) over Golden State: The Trailblazers should be able to keep it close against a Warriors team that has struggled after a hot winning streak. Portland has won the last 3 meetings ATS between these two teams and have won 3 of their last 4 games ATS overall. Golden State has gone 1-9 ATS since 1993 as home favorites of 8->9.5 points after going over in 2 straight and they have lost 3 games in a row SU + ATS overall. Teams have gone just 3-13-1 ATS since last season as home favorites of 8->9.5 points in conference games after losing 2 games in a row. Teams have also gone just 2-10 ATS since the 1990 season as home favorites of 8->9.5 points in conference games after losing 2 games in a row SU + ATS + on the road and going over. Loss: The Trailblazers hand around early, but don't hang close enough.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005:
Denver (-15) over New Orleans: This game is the type that has blow out written all over it. Denver has won 8 games in a row SU (7-0-1 ATS) and teams have gone 12-3 ATS since 1990 as 14->15.5 point favorites in confernce games after winning 8 in a row. New Orleans has lost 4 in a row SU + ATS and they are just 5-16-1 ATS since 1990 after losing 4 in a row SU + ATS. Denver has gone 21-8-1 ATS as home favorites this season and are 17-3-1 ATS since last season after going over in 3 straight. New Orleans will be playing back to back nights in thin air, so fatigue will be an issue. Denver won by 11 earlier this month in New Orleans and should be able to top that easily on their home court. Loss: Another 1 point loss this season.
Tuesday, April 12, 2005:
Toronto/New York Under 203.5: The Knicks and the Raptors are playing in a position where they should go under this high total. The Knicks have gone under in 15 of 18 games since last season as favorites after winning + going over the spread (six in a row this season). They have also gone under in 9 of their last 13 home games and haven't seen a total posted for their games this high in their last 10 contests. Teams playing as home favorites of 4->5.5 points in division games after going over in 3 straight have gone under in 10 of the 11 games dating back to last season (Knick's position tonight). Toronto is in a position where NBA teams have gone under the total as well. Teams have gone under in 13 of the 16 games played as road dogs of 4->5.5 in division games after 5 straight losses ATS. Win: Toronto holds the Knicks to 93 as this one goes under by 5.5 points.
Monday, April 11, 2005:
Memphis (+7) over Dallas: The Grizzlies are trying to secure a playoff spot in Dallas, so we believe they will bring their A game to the court tonight. Dallas is almost assured of their playoff position, so we think they won't play as hard for the win as the Grizzlies will. Memphis has excelled in their last 5 games as they have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS. Dallas has gone just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Memphis is playing on the road after going over and in that situation this season, they have gone 9-1 ATS. We'll take the Grizzlies to keep it under a 3 possession game. Loss: Memphis struggles to keep up with Dallas' hot shooting.
Sunday, April 10, 2005:
3:30 pm est. Sacramento (-11) over L.A. Lakers: The Kings will be looking to extract revenge for a beating they took at home to the Lakers back in December, so we like the odds of them pouring it on. Sacramento is starting to play well again as they have won 6 of their last 9 straight up. The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in similar situations over the past several years. L.A. is just 1-11-1 ATS in division games following an over since last season. In that time span as well, the Lakers have gone just 1-10 ATS as road dogs in conference games after a road game. They are also just 2-11 ATS this season after winning ATS on the road. Odom is a key missing player from the Lakers as they are just 3-8 ATS with out him. Win: The Kings blow out the Lakers by 19 points.
Saturday, April 9, 2005:
Minnesota/Atlanta Over 195: The Timberwolves have started to topple the total lately as they have gone over in 3 of their last 4 (2 in a row). In their last 5 games they have averaged 103 points a game, while the Hawks have given up over 100 to 9 of their last 10 opponents. Atlanta has gone over in 13 of their last 15 games as home dogs in non-conference games after winning ATS + going over. Teams playing as home dogs of 8->9.5 points after losing + winning ATS on the road have gone over in 10 of 12 games since the 2000 season. Teams have also gone over in 21 of 26 since last season as home dogs in non-conference games after winning ATS + going over on the road. Win: Atlanta shocks the T-wolves as this one goes over by 8.
Friday, April 8, 2005:
Detroit (-5.5) over Orlando: The Magic have faded fast and will be going up against a blazing hot Pistons team. Detroit has won 4 games in a row both SU and ATS. The Pistons have outscored their opponents by an average of 9 points in their last 5 games. Detroit has gone 11-2 ATS since the 1990 season as road favorites of 4->5.5 after winning + going over at home. Orlando is playing in a familiar spot at home where success ATS has been hard to come by. Orlando has gone just 1-17 ATS since the 1993 season at home in conference games after losing at home. They are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games at home in conference after 2 straight losses. With Orlando slipping to just 3-6 SU in their last 9 games, we'll lay the points with the Pistons tonight. Win: Detroit trounces the Magic by 12 points.
Sacramento/Portland Under 205.5: The Kings have played in high scoring games recently but are sitting in a position where the under usually takes the cash. The Kings have gone under in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites after going over in 2 straight games at home. The have also gone under in 8 straight since last season after going over in 2 straight games at home and under in 13 of 14 since last season on the road after winning SU +ATS plus going over. Portland has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games while averaging a total score in their games of just 187 points. Portland's injury issues should keep them from scoring enough to push this one over the total. Loss: Portland keeps up with the Kings as this goes over.
Phoenix (-4.5) over Golden St.: The Suns have proven this season that they are the elite in the NBA and should show it against the Warriors tonight. Phoenix has won 6 games in a row SU and 5 in a row ATS (outscoring opponents by an average of 17.5 points a game). Phoenix has gone 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road after winning ATS at home. Teams have gone 13-3-2 this season as road favorites in division games after winning ATS at home. Golden State has played well recently, but they should not be able to match up talent wise with the Sun. Golden State has gone just 2-11 ATS since the 1990 season after winning SU + losing ATS + going over the total. Loss: Suns lead most of the game, but lose it in the end.
Thursday, April 7, 2005:
New York/New Jersey Over 186.5: The Knicks and Net face off in this rivalry in which we believe will be a high scoring affair. The Knicks have gone over the total in 9 straight games as 6->7.5 point dogs in division games following a loss. They have also gone over in 10 of the 12 games they have played since the 2000 season as dogs vs. a division opponent after a home game. The Nets have gone over in 12 of 14 games since 1990 as home favorites to the Knicks. The Nets have also gone over in 10 of their last 11 games this season as favorites in conference after winning. Win: This one topples the total by 23.5 points!
Wednesday, April 6, 2005:
Denver (-5.5) over New Orleans: The Nuggets may be the hottest team in the NBA and George Karl should have his team focused to beat a conference foe tonight. The Nuggets are trying to clinch a playoff spot, while the Hornets may be letting down after a win last night in Atlanta. Denver has gone 10-0 ATS since the 2000 season on the road in conference games after going under in 3 straight. Their defense should be good enough to keep the Hornets at bay. New Orleans has lost 7 straight ATS as 4->5.5 point dogs after winning both ATS and SU. They have also gone just 2-10 ATS as a franchise as home dogs after winning SU + ATS and going under on the road. Win: Nuggets win by double digits on the road.
Utah (+11.5) over Minnesota: The Jazz have no chance at the playoffs, but we like the fact that Sloan is still teaching his team how to win and not give up. Minnesota is desperate to make the playoffs, but Utah is a team that may bring their pride to the court. Utah has gone 5-0 ATS as road dogs of 10->11.5 in conference games since the 2000 season after winning ATS at home. Minnesota has gone just 1-9 ATS this season as home favorites in conference games following a win. Minnesota has managed to take just 3 of the last 10 meetings ATS between the two and may face a struggle tonight. Loss: Sloan is ejected early and the Wolves run away.
Portland (+5.5) over Golden State: The Warriors have axed the competition lately in their winning streak, but we don't think they should be laying as many points on the road as they are. Portland has gone 11-2 ATS since 1990 as home dogs in conference games after losing ATS + going under. They have also gone 9-1-1 ATS as home dogs in conference games after going under since the 2000 season. To cap it off, the Trailblazers have won 6 games in a row ATS as dogs in conference after losing SU + ATS + going under. Golden State has lost 9 games in a row ATS on the road after winning 5 straight games (dating back to the 1992 season). Win: Portland losses by just 2 points as they almost pull off the upset.
Tuesday, April 5, 2005:
Atlanta (+3) over New Orleans: In a match up of two teams that have had horrible seasons, we'll take the home team and the points tonight. New Orleans has dropped 4 of the last 5 meetings ATS against the Hawks. Atlanta has gone 11-2 ATS at home in their last 13 non-conference games at home after losing 2 in a row ATS and going over. The Hawks are also 11-2 ATS since 1990 as home dogs of 2->3.5 points after losing 2 games in a row ATS. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS as home dogs of 2->3.5 points after 3 straight losses since the 2000 season and the Hawks have won 8 straight ATS as home dogs of 2->3.5 after 3 straight losses. Loss: Atlanta hangs close, but falls away at the end.
Indiana/New York Over 185: The Knicks host the Pacers in what should be a high scoring affair. Since last season, teams playing in Indiana's position of being on the road in a conference game after winning 6 games in a row ATS have gone over in 17 of the 21 games. New York has gone over in 12 straight games in conference at home with a PK-> 2.5 point spread. The Knicks have also gone over in 14 of 17 since the 2000 season at home in games with a PK-> 1.5 point spread. The Knicks have gone over in 5 of their last 6 games and 7 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have gone over the total. Loss: This one looked good till the second half.
Denver/Memphis Under 193: The Nuggets have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, but should be slowed down against the Grizzlies. Denver has gone under in 14 of their last 17 in games with a 2->3.5 points spread in conference after going under. The have also gone under in 9 of 10 in 2->3.5 point games in conference after winning since last season. Memphis has gone under in 14 of 15 games since the 2000 season as home favorites in conference after winning at home. Also since the 2000 season, they have gone under in 14 of 15 as home favorites in conference after going under at home. Win: This one falls under by 8 points as the Nuggets pull off the big win.
Sunday, April 3, 2005:
Houston (+1.5) over Phoenix: The Rockets should have Yao back in the line up and will be fired up to get back on the winning track after losing an embarrassing game at home to the Hornets. Phoenix may be the best team in the league right now, but their struggles have come on the road, especially recently as they have gone just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Phoenix have won their last 2 games and gone under. Teams playing in that position this season have gone just 1-11 ATS in games with a PK->1.5 point spread after 2 wins + going under. Houston has gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as dogs to Phoenix and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Loss: Houston fails to score much and can't keep it close.
Friday, April 1, 2005:
New York (-1.5) over New Jersey: The Knicks are coming off a very unsuccessful road trip and should be hungry to get a W at home. The Knicks have gone 14-2 ATS since last season after 3 straight road games and have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home. The Knicks have also gone 10-2-1 ATS since last season at home in conference after losing + going over on the road. Teams have gone 9-0 ATS since last season at home after going over in 4 straight games on the road. The Nets have played well lately at home, but the road has been a different story. Teams have gone 0-9 ATS as dogs of 2->3.5 points in division games following 2 straight wins in a row this season. Loss: Knicks fail in the final minutes and lose by 2.
Golden State/Utah Over 198: The Warriors have been playing outstanding on offense and should set the pace for a high scoring affair tonight. Golden State has gone over in 8 straight games in conference since the 2000 season as favorites after winning + going over and in 11 straight as 4->5.5 point favorites after going over. Teams have gone over in 11 of 13 since last season as road favorites of 4->5.5 after winning SU + ATS + going over on the road. Utah has gone over in 6 of their last 8 games and the Warriors have gone over in 4 straight games. Teams have gone over in 14 of 17 games this season as 4->5.5 point dogs after going over in 2 straight at home (Utah's situation). Win: Justice is served from last night as this one goes over by 1 point.
Denver (-4.5) over San Antonio: The Nuggets have been played some of the best basketball of any team recently, especially at home where they have gone 14-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Denver has also gone 10-0 ATS this season after winning + going over and have cashed in on 10 straight games at home after going over in their previous game. The Spurs played well without Duncan at home, but on the road it has been a different story. The Spurs have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road and are just 1-10 ATS since the 2000 season after winning 2 in a row + going under at home in those games. Teams are just 3-16 ATS since last season as road dogs after winning 3 games in a row SU + ATS at home. Win: Denver blows out the Duncan less Spurs by 18 points.
Thursday, March 31, 2005:
Miami/Indiana Under 189: The Heat and Pacers seem to be in a golden situation to keep this game under the total. Miami has gone under in 8 of their last 9 games overall and with slight injury issues to their guards, the pace of this one may be slow. Indiana has allowed an average of under 90 points in their last 5 games and have gone under in 10 of 11 games since the 2000 season following 3 straight wins ATS. Miami has gone under in 10 of 11 since 2000 as 4->5.5 point favorites in conference after going under in 2 straight. Teams have gone under in 10 of 12 games this season as road favorites of 4->5.5 after winning SU + ATS + going under at home (Miami's situation). Loss: Only overtime puts this one over the total. Another tough luck loss in the NBA.
Wednesday, March 30, 2005:
Golden State (+2) over Milwaukee: The Warriors have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, while the Bucks have struggled recently. The Warriors have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games ATS, including 3 straight wins on the road SU. Since last season, the Warriors have gone 15-2 ATS in non-conference games after winning 2 in a row + going over at home. Milwaukee seems to have given up on the season as they have gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games, all of them losses SU. The have been outscored by an average of more than 7 points a game in their last 5 contests. The Bucks have gone 0-15-1 ATS as favorites in non-conference games since last season. Win: Golden State pulls off the upset and wins by 4 points.
Tuesday, March 29, 2005:
New York/L.A. Lakers Under 202: The Knicks and Lakers are both struggling teams that have gone over a lot recently. The lines makers have adjusted to this as this is the second highest total posted in the Knicks last 9 games. The Knicks have gone under in 10 of 12 road games since 1990 as dogs of 4->5.5 after losing + going over on the road. They have also gone under in 10 of 12 since 2000 as road dogs in non-conference after losing + going over on the road. Teams have gone under the total in all 9 games since last season after losing SU + ATS and going over in 3 straight road games (Knicks situation). The Lakers have gone under in all 9 games since 1990 as 4->5.5 point favorites in non-conference after losing ATS at home. The Lakers have averaged just 192 points in their last 5 games. Loss: Third quarter 3 point contest costs us this one.
Friday, March 25, 2005:
Toronto (+7) over Philadelphia: The Raptors go on the road and should be competitive in this division game with the Sixers. Toronto has gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Sixers. Philly has gone just 2-10-1 ATS against Toronto after winning ATS since the 2000 season. Toronto has gone 8-4 ATS in division play this season, while Philadelphia has managed just a 4-8 ATS mark in the division. Philadelphia has gone 2-11 ATS in division games after winning SU + ATS since last season and are just 2-10 ATS as home favorites in division after going over at home since the 2000 season. Philadelphia is laying too many points after beating an undermanned Pistons team badly. Win: Philly edges the Raptors by a couple but the pick covers easily.
Thursday, March 24, 2005:
Memphis/New Jersey Under 176.5: The Grizzlies and the Nets have both been playing strong defense lately and this should dominate the game tonight. Memphis has held opponents to just 85 points over their last 5 games and the Nets have held opponents to just 84.4. Since 1990, Memphis has gone under in all 9 games on the road with a PK->1.5 point spread after an under and they have gone under in 13 of 15 on the road in non-conference after 3 unders. Teams playing in the Nets position have gone under in recent seasons. Teams have gone under in 9 of 10 since 2000 as PK->1.5 favorite after winning 4 in a row SU + ATS. Since last season, teams have gone under in 10 of 11 in PK->1.5 point games after winning 4 games in a row ATS. Loss: Game goes over as Memphis blasts the Nets.
Wednesday, March 23, 2005:
Chicago (+3) over Toronto: The Raptors should have their hands full at home tonight with the most likely playoff bound Bulls. Chicago is healthy again and they are build momentum with 2 straight wins SU + ATS. Chicago has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Raptors and should have their number again tonight. Toronto has gone just 1-9 ATS as home favorites in conference after winning + home since last season. This happened last in a SU loss to Atlanta a few weeks ago. The Bulls are a much better team and should be able to pull off the upset tonight. Win: Bulls control the whole game and win by 9!
Chicago/Toronto Under 201.5: The Bulls and Raptors have both been going over the total lately, but the Bulls are a much better defensive team now that they are healthy. This total is the highest set for the Bulls in their last 10 games as the line makers have over adjusted for this contest. Toronto has gone under in 13 of their last 16 games played at home after going over in 3 straight. Teams playing in Toronto's position this season of home favorites after 5 overs have gone under in 9 of the 10 games played. Teams have also gone under in 10 of 12 since last season as favorites of 2->3.5 points after going over in 5 straight. Win: Raptors manage just 85 points as this one falls under by 22.5 points!
Tuesday, March 22, 2005:
Indiana (+5) over New Jersey: The Pacers were beat by the Net's on their home court a few days ago and we like their chances of revenge on Tuesday. The Pacers have played well in New Jersey by winning the last 3 meetings between the two, both SU and ATS. The Pacers have gone 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road dogs in conference after losing + going over at home. The Nets have won 4 in a row ATS, but usually that means they lose the next one. They have gone 2-9 ATS as home favorites of 4->5.5 after 2 straight wins ATS since the 2000 season. Teams have gone 0-9 ATS this season as home favorites of 4->5.5 after winning 3 in a row SU + ATS this season. Indiana should be able to clamp the defense down to keep it tight in this one. Loss: Pacers fail to cover by just 2 points.
Monday, March 21, 2005:
Charlotte (+2) over Orlando: The Bobcat's return home after a road trip and should find success as they have gone a nice 18-12-1 ATS at home this season. Charlotte has also gone 8-0-1 ATS this season as home dogs after losing + going under. Since the 2000 season, teams have gone 13-2-1 ATS as home dogs of 2->3.5 in conference games after losing 3 in a row. Orlando is finishing out a long road trip and have gone 1-9 ATS since 2000 on the road after 4 previous road games. Orlando is also 0-8-1 ATS since 1990 on the road in division games after winning SU + ATS + going under on the road. Orlando has just a 14-20-1 ATS mark on the road this season and should find it hard to win in Charlotte. Win: Charlotte picks up the home W by 6.
Sunday, March 20, 2005:
Houston (-1) over Minnesota: The Rockets came into this building back in February and got the win both ATS and SU and should be able to do it again as they have now gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Wolves. Houston is playing better as they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall (3-1 ATS in their last 4 on the road) and Minnesota has gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 overall (1-3 ATS in their last 4 at home). After having a winning streak snapped by Boston, we expect the Rockets to come out fired up. Teams in Minnesota's position of being a home dog of PK->2.5 points in conference after losing SU + ATS + going under have gone just 2-14 ATS since last season. Loss: Rockets slow start cost them the game.
Saturday, March 19, 2005:
Washington (-7.5) over Utah: The Wizards are a little banged up, but will be fired up after a loss in Milwaukee last night. Utah has been playing on the road for a long east coast road trip and the fatigue may be a factor tonight. Utah has dropped 3 in a row, both SU and ATS, on this road trip by losses of 14, 19, and 19. Washington has the best record of the teams that the Jazz has played out of those 3 blow out losses. Washington has won 3 of their last 4 ATS and have adjusted to playing without Jamison for the time being. The Wizards have also taken the last 2 meetings against the Jazz and should make it 3 in a row ATS tonight. Loss: The Wizards stumble at home and win by just 1 point.
Friday, March 18, 2005:
Charlotte (+16) over San Antonio: This game seems like one of those classic NBA games where a team may be over looking their opponent. The Spurs play Detroit on Sunday and may be over looking the Bobcats. Charlotte has not been good on the road, but their point production lately should be able to keep them close enough to cover this large point spread. Teams playing as road dogs in a non-conference game of 14->15.5 points have fared well in recent history. In that situation, teams are 11-2 ATS since 2000 after going over on the road and 10-2 ATS since last season after losing both SU + ATS. This game is consensus pick by formulas that have won 82% of the time this season. Loss: Another 1 point loss in the NBA as we lose another very close one.
Wednesday, March 16, 2005:
Chicago/New Jersey Over 181: The Bulls head out on the road to New Jersey and this situation seem to lean heavily toward this one going over. The Bulls have gone over in 23 of 29 games since the 2000 season when playing on the road after losing at home and going over. (In fact they have gone over the total in all 4 times that has happened this season.) The Nets have gone over in 14 of their last 17 as home favorites in conference after going under in 4 straight. They have also gone under in 9 of their last 10 as home favorites of 2->3.5 points in conference after winning + going under the total. Win: The Nets break the century mark to send this one over the total.
Seattle/Detroit Under 182: Seattle has gone under in 10 of their last 11 games at Detroit after a previous road game. If that don't lean you towards the under, then the fact that they have gone under in 10 of the 11 games since the 2000 season in non-conference play after winning 2 games in a row SU + ATS should. Detroit has lost 5 in a row ATS and when playing in games with a 4->5.5 point spread, they have gone under in 9 of those 10 games following the streak. Detroit has also gone under in 9 of their last 10 games as home favorites in non-conference games after playing on the road. Loss: High scoring 3rd pushes this one over.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005:
Orlando/Sacramento Under 210: The Kings will be without one of their top scorers in Miller and Orlando should struggle starting this road trip. Orlando has gone under in 10 of their last 12 games as 6->7.5 point dogs in non-conferernce games after going under. Orlando has also gone under in 4 of their last 6 games. Sacramento has gone under in all 14 games since 1990 that they have played as favorites in non-conference after losing SU + ATS + going over at home. They have also gone under in 16 straight games as favorites after losing + losing ATS + going over at home. Since 1990, Sacramento has gone under in 17 of 20 as home favorites in non- conference after 3 losses ATS. Win: Orlando can't make the century mark as this falls under by 11 points.
Monday, March 14, 2005:
Charlotte (+5) over Boston: The Bobcats haven't faired well this season record wise, but they have played their best basketball of the season at home. Charlotte has gone 18-11 ATS at home this season, while Boston has struggled on the road going 12-17 ATS. The Celtics may have a let down as they will be on the road after a big win over Washington last night. Boston has gone just 2-11 ATS in games after winning 2 in a row SU. Charlotte has gone 11-3 ATS this season when playing as home dogs after losing 3 in a row. Charlotte has also gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and their defense and rebounding should be able to keep them close tonight. Loss: A close loss as the pick losses by a couple of buckets.
Sunday, March 13, 2005:
Philadelphia/Toronto Under 206: The Sixer's and Raptors meet for the third time this season and the first two contest fell under the total. The line remains at about the same level despite Toronto going under in 11 of their last 12 meetings with Philadelphia after going over at home. Toronto has also gone under in 14 of their last 17 games after losing and going over this season. Philadelphia has gone under in 9 straight games as road dogs in division after winning SU + ATS + going under at home. This total is set too high for this match-up. Loss: Toronto sets the pace and wins easily.
Saturday, March 12, 2005:
Miami (-9.5) over New Jersey: New Jersey's two man show has been shut down lately and the Heat have shut anything moving down lately. Miami has 7 games in a row SU and 6 in a row ATS, while New Jersey has dropped 4 in a row ATS. Over their last 5 games, Miami has beat their opponents by an average of 16 points a game. Miami has also dominated recent meetings between these two teams as they have taken the last 5 meetings ATS, including 2 wins this season by 16 and 23 points. Miami has gone 9-1 ATS since last season as home favorites against a conference opponent after 3 straight wins since last season. Miami should be able to cruise past the Nets in this one. Win: Miami cruises to a 25 point win for the blow out!
Friday, March 11, 2005:
Detroit/Boston Under 191.5: This game may be one of the highly contested games of the night, but we think the Pistons should be able to set the pace with their defense. Detroit has gone under in 10 of their 12 conference games this season after losing 3 in a row ATS. They have also gone under in 4 straight games and have averaged just 188 points a game in their last 5 games overall. Boston has gone under in all 10 games since the 2000 season while playing as home dogs of 2->3.5 following a previous home game. The Celtics have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games overall. The Pistons should keep this game at a low scoring pace as it should fall under this somewhat lofty total. Loss: Doomed by double OT.
Wednesday, March 9, 2005:
Golden State (+11) over Detroit: The Pistons are returning home from a long road trip and will have to head back out after this game. On that long road trip they beat the Warriors, but couldn't cover. That was the last time the Warriors were at home as they are on a road trip of their own and have won 3 of their last 4 on the trip SU (now 7-2 ATS in their last 9 on the road). The Warriors have enjoyed success ATS against the Pistons as they how now won 7 straight meetings ATS. Golden State is playing with a lot of confidence, especially after knocking off Philly last night. The Pistons have lost 3 games in a row SU. With Big Ben having foot troubles, we like the Warriors to compete tonight. Win: The Warriors nearly pull off the upset as they lose by just 4 points.
Tuesday, March 8, 2005:
Houston (+5) over Seattle: The Sonics have been one of the best teams in the league this season, but might head into a little slump as they are getting banged up and coming off a disappointing loss to Phoenix. Seattle has lost 3 of their last 5 games SU and ATS on their home floor. Houston has gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and should be up for this game as they seek revenge for a 2 point loss at home vs. the Sonics back in February that ended their 8 game win streak. Houston seems to have adjusted to their injury situation at guard as they have now won 2 of their last 3 games. Win: Houston comes back for the upset win SU on the road!
L.A. Clippers (+5.5) over L.A. Lakers: The Lakers have won a few games in a row, but should be challenged closely by the Clippers tonight. The Clippers have gone 10-2 ATS as road dogs after losing at home since last season, and tonight's road game is being played on their home court. The Lakers have gone just 1-9 ATS since the 2000 season in division games with a 4->5.5 point spread after going over and they are just 2-10 ATS after winning 2 straight games this season. Teams have gone just 1-11 ATS this season in the NBA as home favorites of 4->5.5 points after winning 2 straight and going over the total. The Clippers have taken 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams ATS. Win: The Clippers bury the Lakers and win by 10 as 5 point dogs!
Monday, March 7, 2005:
Chicago (-5.5) over Milwaukee: The Bulls will be seeking to avenge a defeat in Milwaukee a few days ago and should be energized to do it on their home court tonight. Chicago has gone 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Milwaukee and are 17-3-1 ATS against the Bucks at home following a road game. The Bulls have gone a perfect 12-0 ATS this season after losing ATS + going under. Milwaukee has gone just 1-10 ATS at Chicago after winning at home since the 1990 season. Milwaukee is a much different team on the road as they have gone just 3-6 ATS this season and should struggle again tonight. Loss: We have been doomed by bad luck in close games this season as the Bulls fail to cover by 1/2 a point.
Sunday, March 6, 2005:
Golden State (+3) over New York: Golden State has found some chemistry and offense with Baron Davis and Jason Richardson and they should be able to handle a Knicks teams that will be playing after a loss on the road down in Orlando. The Warriors have gone 12-2 ATS in games with a 2->3.5 point spread after winning 4 games in a row ATS. Golden State has gone 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Knicks and they should be able to pull an upset off today. The Knicks are 2->3.5 point favorites in a non-conference game after going under on the road. Teams playing in that situation have gone just 2-10 ATS this season. Loss: Golden St. had a lead halfway through the 4th, but can't compete the rest of the way.
Saturday, March 5, 2005:
Charlotte (+4) over Washington: The Bobcats have played their best basketball of the season in this situation at home. Charlotte has gone 12-3-1 ATS as dogs this season after losing + going under. The have also gone 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 after losing + going under. Charlotte has been a strong team at home this season, both ATS and SU. Washington is coming off a tough loss last night at home to Golden St. and may be starting a slide. Teams that have played as road favorites of 4->5.5 points this season in division games after a loss have gone just 2-10 ATS the last 2 seasons in the NBA. We like Charlotte to play big at home tonight. Win: Charlotte plays tough throughout for the cover.
Friday, March 4, 2005:
New York/Orlando Over 206: The Knicks and Magic should provide a game with plenty of offense tonight as neither teams are defensive specialists. The Knicks have gone over in 10 straight games as dogs after winning 3 games in a row. The Knicks have also gone over in 14 of their last 15 games as dogs in conference following a win. Orlando has gone over in 9 of 10 since last season as favorites in conference after a win. Orlando has gone over in 3 of their last 4 games and the Knicks have gone over in 8 of their last 10 games. These teams have combined to go over in 6 of their last 9 meetings and this one looks like it should be no different. Loss: This one falls short of the total by just 2 baskets.
Thursday, March 3, 2005:
Indiana (+5) over Denver: The Pacers should be able to hang close with the Nuggets tonight. Indiana has gone 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 on the road as dogs after losing + going over at home and they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games after losing ATS at home. Denver has gone 3-13 ATS against Indiana after winning ATS since 1990 and they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites in non-conference games after winning + going under at home. Denver has also gone 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as favorites after winning + going under at home. Teams have gone 1-10 ATS this season as home favorites of 4->5.5 points after winning 4 games in a row. Loss: O'neal goes down and so does our pick.
Wednesday, March 2, 2005:
Houston (+3) over Washington: The Rockets annihilated the Bulls last night and should be able to keep it close enough if not win tonight. Houston spanked the Wizards by 30 points in mid-February at home. Houston has gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 as road dogs after going over on the road. Houston is also 8-3 so far in the second half of the season and are 3-1 against poor defensive teams this season (teams allowing more than 100 ppg). Washington has gone 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 games and are dealing with injury and sickness issues. Houston seems geared to make another winning run after ending a 3 game losing streak last night. Push: Houston has chances to win, but lose by 3.
L.A. Lakers (+5) over Boston: The Lakers are in need of a win badly and should put forth a good effort tonight in Boston. L.A. has gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games after losing + going over on the road in 2 straight games. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS since the 2000 season as road dogs of 4->5.5 in non-conference play after losing + going over on the road in 2 straight games. The Celtics have gone 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as favorites in non-conference after winning ATS and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after 2 straight wins this season. Boston has also gone just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after 2 wins this season. Win: Lakers lose by just 3 in a closely contested game.
Tuesday, March 1, 2005:
Houston (+2.5) over Chicago: Houston may have started the day out as dogs, but this line might move in their favor by game time. The Rockets have gone 13-1 ATS as road dogs after losing and going over in 2 straight games since the 1991 season. Houston has also won 9 in a row ATS since the 2000 season in non-conference games as 2->3.5 point dogs after losing ATS. Houston has also gone a nice 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Chicago lost by 13 points earlier in February at Houston and should struggle in the same way tonight. Win: The Rockets blow out the Bulls by a whopping 30 points!
Houston/Chicago Over 189: The Rockets and Bulls have gone over in 5 of their last 7 meetings and we think this one will be no different. Houston has gone over in 11 of 13 games as road dogs in non-conference play after 3 straight losses since the 1990 season. The have also gone over in 7 of their last 10 overall and in 10 of their last 11 as dogs in non-conference games after going over at home. The Bulls have gone over in 5 of their last 6 games at home an this competitive game should push the total over the spread again. Win: This one goes over by 19 points as the Rockets shoot lights out.
Atlanta (+10.5) over Denver: The Hawks are on a long west coast trip and are winless in their previous 4 games, but they have covered in all of them ATS. The Hawks have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Denver and they have also gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road dogs of 10->11.5 in non-conference play after 3 previous road games. Denver has gone just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall and they are a dismal 1-9 ATS as favorites in non-conference games after winning + going over in 2 straight games (dating back to 1990). Loss: Atlanta starts out good, but doesn't show in the second half.
Monday, February 28, 2005:
L.A. Lakers/New York Knicks Over 201: The Lakers play at New York in what we think will make for a high scoring affair. The Lakers have gone over in 10 of their 11 games on the road in non-conference after losing + going over on the road since the 2000 season. They have also gone over in 6 of their last 10 games overall and in 11 of their last 13 on the road after losing ATS 2 straight games (since last season). The Knicks have gone over in 7 of their last 9 overall and teams have gone over in all 9 games as home favorites in non-conference of 4->5.5 after playing 2 previous games at home. We like the prospects of a high scoring affair tonight. Win: Game goes into OT, but already had passed the total by 13 in regulation!
Sunday, February 27, 2005:
Seattle (-3) over Milwaukee: The Sonics are playing as well as they did to start the season and should be able to win this one on the road today. Seattle has gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings, winning the last 8. Seattle has gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Seattle has outscored opponents by an average of 3 points a game on the road this season as they have gone 16-9 ATS on the road this season. Milwaukee has gone 0-9 ATS in non-conference games after losing ATS at home since last season and they are just 2-10-1 ATS in non-conference games after going over this season. Loss: Seattle plays one of their worst games of the year.
Denver (-4) over New Orleans: The Nuggets are trying to get themselves in position for a playoff run and they should be able to take advantage of a lesser Hornets team tonight. Denver has gone 19-4 ATS in their last 23 conference games with a 4->5.5 point spread after going over. Denver has gone 14-3 ATS since last season as favorites in conference games following an over. New Orleans has lost 8 games in a row ATS as home dogs of 4->5.5 points in conference after going under. These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions as the Nuggets have won 2 in a row SU + ATS and the Hornets have lost 2 in row SU + ATS. Loss: Another hard loss to take as the Nuggets fail to cover by 1 basket.
Minnesota/Portland Over 178: Both of these teams have gone under the total many times recently, but we think the line makers have adjusted this total too low. Portland has gone over the total in 10 of their last 12 division games at home after losing ATS at home (dating back to the 2000 season). Teams have gone over in 13 of the 16 games played with a PK->1.5 point spread after going under in 7 straight since 1990 (Minnesota's position). Teams have gone over in 11 of the 13 games played with a PK->1.5 point spread as dogs after winning a game this season (Portland's position). These teams are due for a break out offensively and we think this game will provide it. Loss: Another close one as this one falls under by just 4 points.
Saturday, February 26, 2005:
Chicago/Charlotte Under 190.5: Both of these teams will be playing back to back nights and the shooting may not be there tonight. Chicago has gone under in all 10 games since the 2000 season as favorites after winning + going under at home. They have also gone under in 12 of 14 in conference games this season after an under and in 7 of 9 this season in games where the total is set between 190-194.5. Charlotte has gone under in 3 of their last 4 games at home. Teams have gone under in 11 of the 13 games played this season as home dogs of 2->3.5 points after losing + going under on the road. Win: Chicago wins by 4 as this one falls under the total by 6.5.
Friday, February 25, 2005:
Denver (+4.5) over Memphis: The Nuggets should be one of the more improved teams the second half of the season and they should be able to pull off the upset here. Denver has gone a hot 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as road dogs of 4->5.5. Memphis has gone just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference games as favorites after losing SU + ATS + going under. Denver has won the last 2 meetings ATS, so they have matched up well against the Grizzlies. Memphis has lost 3 games in a row SU and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Mempis' injury issues are catching up to them in a hurry as they have been outscored by an average of 2 points a game in their last 5. Win: Denver pulls off the upset and wins SU by 3 points.
Detroit (-3) over L.A. Lakers: The Pistons should be able to continue their dominance over the Lakers as they have gone 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Lakers. Detroit has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are playing the type of basketball that won them the championship last season. Detroit has outscored their opponents by an average of nearly 19 over their last 5 games and have allowed just 82.6 points per game in those 5 games. The Lakers have gone just 1-10 ATS as dogs after going under on the road since last season. We think the Pistons are too hot for the Lakers to handle and should be able to get the victory tonight. Win: The Pistons lead from the start and blow out the Lakers by 21 points!
Wednesday, February 23, 2005:
Houston/San Antonio Under 183: These two teams meet in a game where historically these teams play under the total. In their last 13 meetings, the under has won 11 times. In fact these two teams combined for just 140 points in their last meeting in January. Houston has gone under 18 of 22 games as dogs in division after a home game since 1990. The have also gone under in 10 of their last 12 as road dogs after going under at home since last season. San Antonio is coming off of 7 straight games on the road to play at home. Teams playing as home favorites in conference after 7 games on the road have gone under in 15 of the 18 games since the 1990 season. Win: Teams combine for 180 as this one falls under.
L.A. Clippers (+10) over Phoenix: Phoenix has been the best team in the NBA this season, but they have not been as of late. The Suns have lost 6 in a row ATS and haven't won by more than 8 points in their last 4 home games (lost all 4 ATS). Phoenix has gone just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as home favorites in division after a loss. The Clippers have gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as dogs to Phoenix after going over on the road. L.A. is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road dogs after losing 3 straight games SU and ATS. The road team has won the last 5 meetings ATS in the series between these two teams and we like the Clippers to keep it close enough tonight. Loss: Even without Nash, Clippers still lay an egg.
Atlanta/Golden State Over 197.5: These teams have been playing their best basketball at the offensive end of the floor this season in recent games. Atlanta has averaged a total of 201 points in their last 5 games overall and have gone over in 4 straight games. Golden State has averaged a total of 219 points in their last 5 games overall. Atlanta has gone over in 9 of their 10 meetings with the Warriors after going over in their previous game. Golden State has gone over in 10 of 11 as favorites after winning SU + ATS and going over since the 2000 season. The have also gone over in 10 of 12 at home after winning + going over dating back to last season. Loss: Another heartbreaking .5 point loss for us as the total is 197.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005:
Miami (-3.5) over Chicago: The Heat meet the Bulls in the first game out of the All-Star break and should be able to cover tonight. Miami has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams ATS, including the two previous games this season where they won by 11 at home and by 24 in Chicago. Miami has won 7 games in a row SU and are 9-0 ATS as favorites in conference games after 4 wins since last season. Chicago has gone just 2-11 ATS so far this season after going over in their previous 2 games. The Bull Hinrich has a banged up finger that may affect their performance tonight. Loss: Shaq goes down in the first two minutes. Enough said.
Thursday, February 17, 2005:
Wednesday, February 16, 2005:
Chicago (+2) over Toronto: The Bulls have a better record and have been playing better lately than the Raptors, yet they are still dogs. Chicago has dominated the series of meetings between these two lately as they have won the last 6 meetings ATS and SU. Chicago has gone 6-4 ATS on 0 days rest this season and are a nice 13-9 ATS on the road this season as well. Chicago should win the rebounding battle as they have out rebounded opponents by 6 a game in their last 5, while Toronto has been out rebounded by 9 in their last 5 games. Toronto has gone just 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and Chicago has gone 3-1 in their last 4. Win: The Bulls win this game SU by 6 points!
Atlanta/Cleveland Over 193.5: The Cavs and Atlanta are in familiar territory for this one to over the total. Atlanta has gone over in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Cleveland after winning ATS at home and Cleveland has gone over in 11 of their last 14 meetings with Atlanta after 2 straight home games. Cleveland has also gone over in 8 straight games when playing as home favorites in conference after 2 home games and in 13 of 17 as home favorite in conference after 3 home games. Atlanta has gone over in 9 straight games as dogs after losing SU + winning ATS + going over at home. Teams playing in that situation in the NBA this season, have gone over in 10 of the 12 games. Win: Cavs score 111 as this one goes over by 6.5!
Tuesday, February 15, 2005:
L.A. Clippers/Orlando Over 200: The Clippers and Magic both have the ability to put a lot of points on the board and this total should get surpassed this evening. The Clippers have gone over in 9 of their 11 road games since 1990 when playing as road dogs in non-conference after 4 previous road games. Orlando has gone over in 10 of their last 11 games as home favorites in non-conference after winning at home. The Magic has also gone over in 16 of 19 since last season as home favorites after going under the total. Orlando has averaged total well over 200 in their home games this season and should be able to accelerate this total past that mark. Loss: This one misses the total by just 7 points.
Utah/L.A. Lakers Over 196: The Lakers and Jazz are playing in a spot where the over should be able to prevail tonight. Utah has gone over in 8 of their last 12 games and has averaged a total of 206 points in their last 5 games. The Lakers have gone over in 13 of 16 games as home favorites in conference after 2 losses SU + ATS on the road. The Lakers have also gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged 202 points total in their last 5 games. The Lakers should be able to run up the total on the Jazz and that should enable the total to go over the 196 mark. Win: Luck finally jumps on our side as this one goes over by a point.
Monday, February 14, 2005:
New York/Philadelphia Over 204: The Knicks and Sixers both have a knack for going over the total playing in this situation. The Knicks have gone over the total in 11 of their last 12 games in conference as 6->7.5 point dogs after a win and in 10 of their last 12 as dogs in division games after an over. New York has also gone over in 12 of their last 13 as dogs in conference after a win and in 5 of their last 6 overall. Philadelphia has gone over in 10 of their 12 games this season in conference after a win. The Over for the Sixers is also 9-0-1 in games with a 6->7.5 points spread after a win since last season. Win: This one carries over the total by 7 as the Sixers win a close one.
Utah/Phoenix Over 216: The Suns have a high scoring pace to their games and they should be able to dictate the pace of this one tonight. Phoenix has gone over in 10 of their last 11 as 12->13.5 point favorites after 3 losses ATS. They have also gone over in 10 of their last 11 as home favorites in conference after winning on the road. Teams have gone over in 10 of the 12 games played as home favorites of 12->13.5 in conference after losing ATS on the road since last season. Utah has gone over in 13 of their 16 games on the road after a win ATS at home since last season and they have gone over in 10 of their last 15 overall. Four of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have gone over the total. Win: An easy win for the over as the total gets smashed by almost 60 points!
Sunday, February 13, 2005:
San Antonio (-1) over Miami: The Spurs should be able to prevail in this matchup of the two best teams in each conference. The Spurs may be on a road trip, but they have been very successful, going 4-1 both SU and ATS so far. The Spurs have won the last 6 meetings between these two teams SU. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS on the road in PK->2.5 point games after 5 road games since the 2000 season. Miami has lost 3 games in a row ATS and haven't played as well lately as they have in earlier points of this season. We like the Western Conference power to get it done in the East in this big match up. Loss: The Spurs come up just short in Miami.
Chicago (+5) over Minnesota: Minnesota has been mediocre at best this season and may not respond well to the coaching change just made. The Bulls haven't played as great as they have earlier this season, but they still should be good enough to cover this spread. Chicago has gone 9-1-1 ATS as 4->5.5 point dogs in non-conference games after going over since 1990. Team have gone 9-1 ATS on the road after 9 straight overs since the 2000 season and teams are 11-1 ATS after 4 overs on the road since last season. Minnesota has lost 3 straight meetings ATS to the Bulls and have dropped 8 of their last 10 games ATS. The Bulls will be playing on 3 days rest and should compete enough to cover today. Win: Bulls win outright as they pull off the upset on the road.
New Orleans (+11) over Orlando: The Hornets have won 2 games in a row and their confidence should keep them in this game against a Magic team that hasn't played their best basketball lately. Orlando has gone just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 5 games and have lost 4 of their last 5 games SU. New Orleans has gone 9-0 ATS as dogs in non-conference games after winning SU + ATS + going over at home since 1990. The Hornets have also gone 9-1 ATS since 2000 as road dogs of 10->11.5. Road teams have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two and should cover as well tonight. Win: Hornets almost pull off the upset, but cover the spread as they lose by just 3.
Dallas/Seattle Under 215: The Mavericks have not been the offensive machine on the road this season as they have in the past. Dallas has gone under in 4 of their last 6 games on the road and has averaged just 195 total in their games on the road this season. Dallas has also gone under in 10 of their 12 games in conference on the road this season. Seattle has gone under in 10 of 11 since 1990 as 4->5.5 point favorites at home after winning ATS + going under on the road. The have also gone under in 10 of 11 games since 2000 as 4->5.5 point favorites after 2 wins and in 12 of 14 after 5 wins. Win: This one falls under the total easily by 28 points!
Portland/Houston Over 187.5: The Rockets have been known as a defensive team, but lately the over has been winning for them. They have averaged 204 points in their last 5 games (going over in 4 of them). Portland has gone over in 9 of their last 10 as dogs of 6->7.5 in conference after 2 straight losses and in 9 straight as road dogs in conference after losing + going under on the road. Portland has also gone over in 13 of their last 15 as dogs after a loss this season and in 11 of their last 12 on the road in conference after losing on the road since last season. The last 4 meetings between these two have gone over the total and tonight's game should be no different. Loss: Low scoring first half keeps this one under the total.
Friday, February 11, 2005:
L.A. Clippers/Washington Over 200: The Clippers and Washington both seem in good position to push this one over the total. The Clippers have gone over in 9 of their 10 games as road dogs in non-conference games after 4 previous road games (this is the Clipper's 5th road game in a row). Washington has gone over in 9 straight as home favorites of 4->5.5 in non-conference games after a win and in 15 straight in non conference after a home game with a 4->5.5 point spread. Teams have gone over in 16 of the 18 games played this season as home favorites of 4->5.5 after 2 home games. In the last 9 meetings between these two, the over has won on 7 occasions. Loss: Clippers play close and keep this one under.
Portland/Memphis Under 186: The Trailblazers have been going under the total lately as they have gone under in 7 of their last 9 games overall. These teams have gone under the total in 8 of their last 9 meetings. Memphis has gone under in 12 of their last 13 as home favorites in conference after winning + going under. Memphis has also gone under in 10 of their last 11 against Portland after a win and in 12 of their 13 games at home this season after playing their previous game on the road. Memphis should bring enough defense tonight to keep this one under the total. Win: Memphis clamps down on defense in the second half as this one falls under by 16.
Memphis (-6.5) over Portland: The Grizzlies have been able to win without key players in their line up and they should be able to tonight against a weak Portland team. Memphis has won 9 in a row ATS vs. Portland after winning ATS on the road. They have also gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 at home after winning + going under on the road. Memphis is also 13-2-1 ATS since last season at home after winning on the road. Portland has struggle to maintain any consistent play all season and have gone 2-10 ATS since last season on the road in a conference game after playing their 2 previous games at home. Loss: One of the many close games we've lost, losing by just .5 a point.
Thursday, February 10, 2005:
Atlanta/Orlando Over 202: The Hawks and Magic have gone under in most of their recent meetings, but we feel tonight should be different. Atlanta has gone over in 10 of 11 games since last season playing as dogs in their division after winning ATS at home. Atlanta has also gone over in 9 of their 10 division games so far this season. Teams have gone over in 18 of the 22 games played as 10->11.5 point road dogs in conference after winning SU + ATS since 1990. Orlando has gone over in all 7 games this season as home favorites after going over and they have gone over in all 8 this season as home favorites after a previous home game. Loss: Another close one and this falls under by a few baskets.
Monday, February 7, 2005:
Miami (-14) over Golden State: The Warriors continue to have their injury issues, while the Heat continue to pound teams this season. Miami has gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors. Golden State has dropped 7 games in a row ATS on the road and are just 3-15-1 in their last 15 games overall. The Warriors have gone 0-8 ATS this season playing as road dogs after a prior road game. Golden State has also gone just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road after a loss this season. We like the possibility of a blow out tonight. Loss: Miami wins by just 9 as Dwayne Wade has his worst game of the year.
Utah (-7) over New York: The Knicks are in a long road trip and should be out matched heavily here again tonight. Utah has gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as favorites vs. New York after a home game and have taken 8 of the last 10 meetings ATS over the Knicks. Teams have gone 10-0 ATS this season as home favorites in non-conference games after going over in their previous 2 home games. Teams have also gone just 1-7 ATS this season on the road after losing ATS + winning SU in their 2 prior games. The Knicks are also a dreaded 1-10 ATS against Utah after a loss. Utah has Kirilinko playing big minutes again and that should help them put the Knicks away. Loss: Utah plays horrid and gets embarrassed.
Sunday, February 6, 2005:
Dallas/Toronto Under 205: The Mavericks have been a team that has sent the Under to the pay window lately as they have gone under in 6 of their last 7 games overall. The Mavericks have gone under in all 6 games this season playing as road favorites after losing ATS. Teams have gone under in 8 of the 9 games played this season as road favorites of 4->5.5 after going under in 2 straight games. Toronto has gone under in 11 of their last 12 games in non-conference playing at home after a previous home game. The last 2 meetings between these teams has gone under the total and we think today will be the third in a row. Loss: Teams go over the total as defense is poor.
Saturday, February 5, 2005:
Detroit (-4) over New Jersey: Both teams have been playing well of late, but the Pistons should show their talent dominance today. The Pistons have won 5 games in row, both SU and ATS. The Nets have played well of late, but may be overmatched against a tough opponent. The Nets have gone 2-11-1 ATS as home dogs of 4->5.5 points after going under on the road since 1990. Detroit has gone 10-1 ATS as road favorites of 4->5.5 points after winning + going over at home. Detroit has won the last 4 meetings between these two teams both SU and ATS. Loss: Pistons get blown out on the road.
Phoenix (-14) over New York: The Suns style of play tonight should be strong enough to dominate a Knicks team that will be trying to get over a heart breaking loss last night at Sacramento. The Suns have gone 7-1-1 ATS as favorites in non-conference games this season after winning ATS on the road. In those games, they have blown teams better than the Knicks out on their own floor. The Knicks have gone 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the road after losing + winning ATS + going over on the road. Teams have gone just 1-7 ATS this season in non-conference games after losing on the road. We like a big blow out tonight. Loss: Phoenix wins easy, but fails to cover the spread.
Friday, February 4, 2005:
Dallas/Indiana Over 189: The Mavericks have one of the most potent offenses in the league still, and should be able to drive the tempo up in this contest to have the over cover. Dallas has gone over in 15 of their last 18 as favorites in non-conference games after winning SU + ATS and going under the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams has gone over the total. You would think the total line posted for this contest, but this is the lowest total posted for their last 8 contests. We like the prospects for a high scoring affair. Push: The line dropped to 189 by game time on most books.
New Orleans (+6) over Golden State: It's hard for us to beleive that Golden State could be a favorite agaisnt anyone, especially win Claxton questionable and Murphy and Robinson out of the line up. The Warriors are favorites, yet they have been out scored by and average of 10 points in their last 5 games. The Hornets are not a good team by any means, but the have done good agaisnt the number in this situation by going 7-1 ATS this season as road dogs in conference after 2 losses. The have also gone 11-1 the last 2 seasons as road dogs after losing ATS + going under. The Hornets veiw this as a chance for a road win, so they should be able to play pretty tight tonight. Loss: Both losses tonight were by 1 basket or less.
Thursday, February 3, 2005:
L.A. Clippers/Memphis Over 178: The Grizzlies have gone under in 13 straight as home favorites in conference after winning ATS at home, but they have not played any of those games with a total posted this low. The Clippers have averaged 182 points in their last 5 games and have shown their ability to put up points with out Magettee. Memphis has averaged a total of 192 points a game in their last 5 contests. This is the second lowest total posted for a Memphis game in their last 10 games with the first of these going over easy. The Clippers have gone over in 13 of their 17 games against the Grizzlies after a win ATS. Win: This one surpasses the total easily at it goes over by 31 points!
San Antonio (-8) over L.A. Lakers: The Spurs have the best record in the league and they enjoy showing it against a depleted Lakers team. The Spurs have won both meetings so far this season by 9 points and 17 points. The Spurs have gone 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites in a conference game after winning 3 straight games. The Lakers have gone just 1-10 ATS against San Antonio at home following 2 straight unders. The Lakers are in coaching term oil and the Spurs should be able to come away with an easy win tonight. Win: Spurs win by 12 as they dominated the game.
Wednesday, February 2, 2005:
New Jersey (+5.5) over Boston: The Celtics have been an up and down team all season and they seem to be on the down trend now as they have lost 2 straight games at home (SU and ATS). It doesn't get any easier for them as they have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Nets. New Jersey has won 4 in a row SU + ATS and have gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Nets are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 in division after 4 straight wins. New Jersey has also gone 16-4-1 ATS since 1990 as road dogs at Boston. The Nets are playing better basketball than the Celtics and are getting way too many points for our liking. Loss: The Nets get behind early and can't recover.
Tuesday, February 1, 2005:
Detroit (+2) over Washington: This Pistons are starting to play the type of basketball that led them to a championship last season as they have won 3 games in a row ATS. They have owned the Wizards in their last 7 meetings as they have won 6 of them ATS. Washington has lost 2 in a row to Orlando and may begin to show signs of their weakness without Hughes. Washington has gone 2-12 ATS in their 14 games at home with a spread of 2->3.5 after 2 losses + going under since 1990. These teams have identical records, but the Pistons are playing with more momentum and better defense. We will take the Pistons to win on the road tonight. Win: The Pistons win by 10 on the road.
Detroit/Washington Under 189.5: The Pistons have been able to win games lately due to their defense and they should be able to dictate the pace of this evenings game. The Pistons have gone under in 5 of their last 6 games overall (average total of 165 in their last 5 games). The Pistons have gone under in 10 of their 11 games since 2000 as road dogs after winning ATS + going under at home. Teams have gone under in 9 of the 10 games since 2000 as road dogs of 2->3.5 after winning + going under in 3 straight games. Washington has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games and should be held well below their scoring average by a strong Pistons defense. Loss: Detroit outscores the Wizards for the over.
Chicago/New Jersey Over 187.5: The Nets are coming off a west coast trip where their offense came alive as they have gone over in 6 of their last 7 games overall (average total of 205 in their last 5 games). The Nets have gone over in 10 of 12 games as 2->3.5 point favorites in conference after winning + going under. Chicago has gone over the total in 5 straight games and should be able to keep pace with the Nets to push this one over the total. Teams playing in the Bull's position of road dogs in conference after going over at home in 3 straight games have gone over in 10 of the 12 games played since last season. Win: This one goes over easy as it tops 200.
Phoenix (-5) over Memphis: The Suns come to town blazing a path on this road trip as they are outplaying everyone they meet. The have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games and will be looking for revenge against a Memphis team that embarrassed them at home without Nash playing. Teams have gone 11-1 ATS since the 2000 season as road favorites in conference after winning on the road in 3 straight games. Teams are also 18-4 ATS since 1990 as 4->5.5 point favorites in conference after 3 wins on the road. Memphis has gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Suns and may be playing short handed tonight Miller and Wells banged up, and Gasol and Posey out. Loss: Nash's ejection in the forth costs the Suns the lead and the game.
Phoenix/Memphis Over 216: The Suns have posted high totals ever since the return of Nash to their line up and they should do it once again tonight. The Suns have gone over in all 6 games since his return and they have averaged a total in their games of 236 points. Phoenix has gone over in 17 of their last 20 games on the road as favorites after 2 straight wins on the road. The Suns have also gone over in 12 of their 14 games since last season as 4->5.5 point favorites. Memphis has gone over in 3 of their last 5 games and should be able to score enough points tonight to help the Suns carry this one over the total. Loss: Phoenix stops scoring when Nash goes out.
Monday, January 31, 2005:
Memphis/New Orleans Under 174: These teams have gone under in their last 3 meetings, with an earlier meeting in January totaling just 160 points. New Orleans has gone under in 11 of their 13 games since 1990 playing as home dogs of 6->7.5 after a loss and under in 5 of their last 7 overall. Memphis has gone under in 8 of their last 11 overall. For Memphis, the under is perfect 17-0 in their history when playing as favorites in conference after winning at home. The under is also 12-2 for the Grizzlies in division games with a 6->7.5 point spread after a home game since the 2000 season and they have gone under in 13 of their last 16 games in division play after a road game. Loss: High scoring second half carries this one over.
Sunday, January 30, 2005:
Houston (+7) over Miami: The Rockets come into Miami off of a tough OT loss to the Kings and they should be fired up to compete with the best in the east. Miami has played average basketball in their last 10 games, going 5-5 SU, yet they are big favorites against a good team today. Houston has gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 and have won 10 of 11 ATS since last season playing on the road in non-conference after losing ATS. Houston is also 10-2-1 ATS dating back to 1990 as road dogs of 6->7.5 in non-conference games after losing SU + ATS at home. Miami's free throw shooting should hinder their ability to put away an improving Rockets team. Loss: Layup with 14 seconds left makes us a loser by 1 basket again.
Phoenix/Toronto Over 225: The total for the Sun's games don't seem to climb high enough as the Suns and their opponents seem to blow it out of the water every night. Phoenix has gone over in all 5 games since the return of Steve Nash and have averaged total scores of 240.6 points in those games. Phoenix has also gone over in 11 straight as road favorites of 6->7.5 points in non-conference games following 2 previous road games. Toronto has gone over in 12 of their last 14 games as home dogs of 6->7.5 after losing on the road. Toronto has averaged a total of 200.6 points in their previous 5 games and should be able to keep a high total with the Suns today. Win: Phoenix puts up 46 points in the third quarter for the win.
Saturday, January 29, 2005:
New York/Detroit Over 181.5: The Knicks travel to Detroit in a game that should be able to topple the total. The Knicks have gone over in 18 of their 22 road games since the 2000 season in conference games after 3 straight home games. New York has also gone over in 10 of their last 12 on the road after 2 losses ATS at home and over in 10 straight in conference as road dogs after a win. Detroit has gone over in 8 straight as home favorites of 8->9.5 in conference games following 2 straight unders. The Pistons have scored more and allowed more this season than last, yet the totals for their games seem to not reflect it. Loss: Knicks stink up the court and get blown out.
Memphis (-13) over Atlanta: The Grizzlies may be playing without Pau Gasol, but they continue to play well as they are 3-1 ATS without him. Memphis has gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS + going over and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites in non-conference games after going over on the road. Memphis has also gone 11-1 ATS at home in non-conference games after winning ATS on the road since the 2000 season. Teams have gone 11-2 ATS as home favorites of 12->13.5 after going over on the road since last season. Atlanta has gone 0-10 ATS this season as road dogs after going over and 1-10-1 ATS after going over at home this season. Loss: Memphis doesn't play well in a weather delayed game.
Boston/Chicago Under 197: The Celtics and Bulls meet in a game with a similar total post as their last 8 have been, and the under has won 7 of those games. Boston has gone under in 10 of their 12 games at Chicago after an over since the 1990 season. The Celtics have gone under in 6 of their last 8 games. Chicago has gone under in 10 of their last 11 as home favorites in conference after going over and in 9 of their last 11 in conference after winning + going over at home. The Bulls have also gone under in 12 of their last 14 games in conference at home after a win at home. Loss: Another close loss as this falls under by just 1 point.
Friday, January 28, 2005:
Washington (+4.5) over Orlando: The Wizards continue to be one of the underrated teams in the NBA this season. Washington comes in getting 4.5 points against a struggling Orlando team. Orlando started the season well, but are tailing off lately as they have lost 5 games in a row ATS. Orlando has also dropped 4 games in a row ATS at home. The Magic may be without the services of key player Grant Hill tonight, and if he plays, his wrist may be a hinder the team. Washington has won 4 games in a row, SU + ATS, and come into tonight with a lot of confidence to compete with the Magic. Loss: Wizards lose in the final minutes.
Atlanta (+10) over Miami: The Heat are a better team than the Hawks, but we think the Hawks are in a position tonight to give the Heat a run for their money. Miami is on their 3rd game of a road trip and may be looking ahead to their next 3 opponents in Dallas, Houston, and Cleveland. Atlanta has gone 9-1 ATS since last season at home in conference after 2 losses SU + ATS and 13-3 ATS against Miami at home after losing SU + ATS since 1990. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS this season as 10->11.5 point dogs in conference games this season after 2 straight losses. Atlanta has won the last 3 meetings between these two teams when playing at home. Push: Atlanta stays real close until the very end.
Phoenix/Boston Over 220: At first glance this total seems really high, but when you take into account that Phoenix has averaged a total of 239 points in their last 4 games, we like the over. This all happened thanks to the return of Nash, as they have gone over in all 4 of those games. Phoenix has gone over in all 10 games since 1990 as road favorites of 6->7.5 in non-conference after 2 previous road games. Boston has gone over in 10 of 12 since 2000 as dogs after 2 wins ATS + going under. Boston has also gone over in 10 of their l1 games since last season as dogs after winning 2 straight games ATS. The over has gone 5-1-1 in these teams last 7 meetings. Win: This one smashes the high total by 27 points!
Seattle (-5) over Golden State: The Warriors have played dismal basketball lately as they have gone just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. It doesn't get any easier against a Seattle team that has taken 3 of the their last 4 meeting ATS. Golden State has also gone 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games this season after a loss ATS. Seattle has gone 10-1 ATS on the road in conference games after losing SU + ATS since last season. The Sonics have also gone 15-3 ATS since 2000 on the road in conference after losing ATS on the road. Seattle has won 10 games in a row ATS against the Warriors after losing ATS and going over in their previous game. Loss: Yet another of the many one basket losses we have suffered this season.
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
Toronto (+5) over Miami: Miami is laying 5 points on the road in this game, when all they have been laying on the road lately is an egg as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5. Miami has gone just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games and have lost 5 of those games straight up. Toronto has won 10 of their last 11 games at home SU and have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Toronto is also 5-2 ATS on 2 days rest this season, while the Heat played and lost on the road last night in Philadelphia. This game is a pick by a formula that has gone 23-1 ATS so far this season. Loss: Toronto gets blown out at home.
Washington (-3.5) over Philadelphia: The Wizards have successfully adjusted to life without Hughes and should be ready for the 76er's tonight. Washington has gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 as favorites in conference after a win and are 6-1-1 ATS on 2 days rest this season. The Wizards will be looking to avenge a 2 point loss from earlier this season and has gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Philadelphia has gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games where the spread is 4->5.5 after winning 2 games ATS. Philadelphia has struggled on the road as they have lost 4 of their last 5 SU. Win: Washington cruise by the 76er's by 10 points.
Milwaukee (+7) over Phoenix: The Bucks should come out firing on all cylinders tonight as they should be able to match Phoenix's intensity. Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4 games SU and will use this game as motivation to see just where they stand. Phoenix has gone just 3-14 ATS since 2000 as road favorites in non-conference games after a previous game on the road. This is the Suns third game in 4 nights as they have traveled from a game in New York last night. Milwaukee should be able to keep up the scoring pace enough to keep close with the Suns. This game is a pick by a formula that has gone 23-1 ATS so far this season. Win: The Bucks hang tough to cover the spread.
Milwaukee/Phoenix Over 214.5: The Bucks have enough scoring power to help this one over the total and we know what the Suns bring to the table offensively. Phoenix has gone over in 10 of their last 12 games as road favorites of 6->7.5 in non-conference games after a road game since 1990. Phoenix has also gone over in 3 straight games. Milwaukee has gone over in 9 of 10 since 1990 as home dogs in non-conference games after winning + going over. The Bucks have gone over in 12 straight as home dogs after a win, 10 straight as dogs in non-conference after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS, 9 straight as 6->7.5 point dogs, and in 9 straight this season as dogs after winning ATS. Win: This one sails over the total by a whopping 21.5 points.
New Jersey (+3.5) over Golden State: The Nets have slowly improved since the addition of Vince Carter to the line up as they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Nets seem to always have the Warriors number as they have taken the last 4 meetings ATS. The Nets have gone 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as road dogs of 2->3.5 after losing. The Warriors are battling ailment on their team and they have gone just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Warriors are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 as home favorites of 2->3.5 points after a home game (dating back to 2000). Win: The Nets cruise to a 14 point win as dogs on the road!
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
Charlotte (+4) over Boston: The Celtics have been one of the worst teams on the road this season and we feel they don't have the right to be favored on the road against any team. Boston has lost 9 games in a row ATS on the road and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Celtics have gone 2-15-1 ATS in their last 18 on the road as favorites after losing on the road, 2-12 ATS as 2->3.5 point favorites after 2 road games, and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games after 2 road games. Charlotte has played their best basketball at home this season where they are 7-12 and have won 2 in a row ATS. The Bobcats will be fired up to end a losing streak tonight as well. Loss: Another aggravating 1 point loss.
Chicago (-3) over Denver: The Nuggets have had their troubles this season and will be playing without Camby (1-4 without him this season) against a red hot Bulls team. Denver has gone just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as road dogs after losing SU + winning ATS on the road. This is the second game of a long road trip for the Nuggets. Chicago has gone a nice 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and are 6-2 ATS on 0 days rest this season. Teams have gone 15-3 ATS since last season as 2->3.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS + going over on the road. The Bulls should continue their momentum in a win tonight. Win: We finally get a close one as the Bulls take care of the Nuggets.
Monday, January 24, 2005
Cleveland (-4) over Washington: The Cavs return home where they have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season by going 14-3, while the Wizards are just 9-10 on the road. Washington will be playing without Hughes again and possibly Juan Dixon. The Cavs have gone 8-0-1 ATS as home favorites in conference after winning ATS on the road in their last 9 and 10-1-1 ATS since last season in conference games after winning on the road. The Cavs outscore opponents by an average of 11 points a game at home and are 6-0 ATS against teams above .500 at home. Cleveland is also a nice 15-2 ATS in their last 17 at home after winning + going under. Loss: Cavs blow a 17 point lead and lose.
Detroit/Minnesota Under 183.5: These teams seem to struggle offensively when they meet as the last 3 meetings between the two teams have gone under the total. Detroit has gone under in 10 of 11 games since last season playing as road dogs of 4->5.5 points. Detroit is ranked second in the NBA this season on defense. Minnesota may be playing without starting point guard Cassell and have gone under the total in 9 of their last 11 games overall. The under has gone 10-2 for the Wolves since last season when they are playing as 4->5.5 point favorites after a game on the road. Win: This one easily goes under by 14.5 points.
Sunday, January 23, 2005
San Antonio/Sacramento Under 190.5: The Spurs continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the league and they should be able to keep the pace down enough to hold this one under the total this evening. Three of the last 4 meetings between these two teams has gone under the total, with one of those being a game earlier this month that totaled out at a measly 167 points. The Spurs have gone under the total in all 10 games since 1990 as road favorites of 2->3.5 in conference after winning + going over in their previous game. Sacramento has gone under in all 12 games since the 2000 season at home after going over in 2 straight games at home. Win: The Spurs cruise to a victory, leaving this one under easily.
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Atlanta (+4.5) over Boston: The Celtics have struggled mightily on the road this season, especially of late, as they have lost 7 in a row SU + ATS. Boston is just 1-10 ATS as road favorites of 4->5.5 points in conference games after going over in their previous game. The Celtics are also just 2-15-1 ATS in their last 18 games as road favorites after losing on the road. Atlanta has played well at home of late as they have gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 at home. Atlanta has gone 9-1 ATS against the Celtics after losing 3 games in a row. The Hawks have also gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games at home after losing SU + ATS in 2 straight games. The Hawks should be able to come out strong and played competitive basketball all night in this one. Win: The Hawks comeback and win this one outright by 4 points!
Chicago (+8) over Detroit: The Bulls looked good last night as they cruised to a win over Atlanta and should be confident enough to hang with Detroit tonight. The Bulls won at Detroit back in December and have now taken 2 of the last 3 meetings ATS between the teams. Chicago has gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and are 5-2 ATS on 0 days rest this season. The Bulls have been particularly strong on the boards in their last 5 games as they are averaging 10 more than their opponents in that time span. Detroit has played mediocre in their last few games and will have their hands full in tonight's contest. Win: Another underdog winning straight up as the Bulls handle the Pistons easily.
Friday, January 21, 2005
Toronto/Washington Under 203.5: The Raptors should be able to maintain control of the pace of this game and they have gone under in 7 of their last 9 games. The Under has gone 9-1-1 for Toronto when playing at Washington after winning (5 straight unders) Teams have gone under in 15 of the 18 games since 2000 as road dogs of 4->5.5 after winning + going under in 2 straight games. Eight of the last 9 meetings between these two have gone under. Without Hughes the Wizards should struggle to score points against the Raptors who have allowed just 94 points a game in their last 5 games. Loss: The Wizards play fast break ball and break open the total.
Dallas (-7.5) over Charlotte: Dallas woke up against the Clippers last night in the fourth quarter and we don't expect a let down tonight in Charlotte. The Bobcats have been good at home this season, but are in a tough spot tonight as they will be probably be playing without the NBA's second leading assist man in Knight this evening. Charlotte has gone just 3-6 ATS in their last 9, while Dallas has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Dallas has outscored opponents by 6 a game on the road this season and they are playing one of the worst teams in the NBA so they should easily expand on that. Teams have lost 11 of 12 games played since 2000 as 8->9.5 point dogs after losing + winning ATS + going over. Loss: Another aggravating loss by 1.5 points for us.
New York (-2) over Houston: The Knicks are in the need of a big win tonight and should be able to cash in on a very tired Houston teams that will be playing for the 4th time in 5 nights. Worst yet is that they played in Orlando last night and they are just 3-5-1 ATS on 0 days of rest this season. Houston has gone just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 as road dogs in non-conference games after winning + going over on the road. The Knicks have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 as favorites against non-conference opponents after 3 losses and they are 14-2-1 ATS at home after losing on the road since the 2000 season. The Knicks have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Rockets and should be able to win this evening. Loss: Yet again another 1 basket loss.
Chicago (-8.5) over Atlanta: The Bulls winning streak was just ended in Boston so they should be focused at home tonight to take out a struggling Atlanta team. Chicago has gone 9-1 ATS versus Atlanta at home after losing on the road since 1990. Chicago is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season after losing + losing ATS + going under and they are 13-7 ATS on 1 days rest. Chicago has covered in 4 of their last 5 games at home. The Hawks have gone 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as road dogs of 8->9.5 since last season (losing 8 straight). Atlanta has lost 3 in a row ATS on the road and have been outscored by an average of 13 on the road this season. Teams have gone just 1-11 ATS as road dogs of 8->9.5 after losing ATS on the road this season. We'll take the Bulls big. Win: Bulls win by 10 to cover as they lead the whole way.
Golden State (+4) over L.A. Lakers: Life without Kobe has been good so far for the Lakers, but they should face a tough test tonight against a determined Golden State team that will be looking for revenge from a 2 point loss at home to Lakers six days ago. The Warriors will have Richardson in the line up this time and should be able to win as they have gone 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two. Golden State has gone 10-2-2 ATS as road dogs in division after a home game in their last 14 and 9-1-1 ATS as dogs in division games after winning SU + ATS. The Lakers are playing as home favorites of 4->5.5 after going under at home in their previous game. Teams playing in that situation this season have gone a miserable 2-16 ATS. We'll take Warrior to upset tonight. Push: Blown lay up cost us a win.
Thursday, January 20, 2005
Cleveland/Sacramento Under 202: The Cavs continue their last road trip against the Kings in what should be a game that goes under this high total. This is the highest total posted for a game between these two clubs in their last 4 meetings, of which 3 have gone under. The Cavs have gone under in 9 of 10 as road dogs in non-conference games after winning + going over on the road and under in 6 of their last 9 overall. The Kings have gone under in 8 straight non-conference games after a loss ATS and in 9 of their last 10 at home in non-conference games after losing ATS + going over. Since 1991, the Kings have gone under in 15 of 17 as home favorites vs. non-conference opponents after losing ATS + going over at home. Loss: Cavs forget how to play defense and get blown out.
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
New York (+5) over Toronto: The Raptors have been excellent at home all season, but should find it hard to cover against a determined Knicks team tonight. The Knicks have gone 9-1 ATS as dogs in division games after 2 losses since 1990, 17-2-1 ATS (winning 10 straight) as 4->5.5 point dogs in conference games after losing at home in their last 20, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as 4->5.5 point dogs after 3 losses. The Knicks have also gone a perfect 9-0 ATS since 2000 as dogs of 4->5.5 in conference games after 2 losses. Toronto is playing as home favorites of 4->5.5 after winning + going under. Teams playing in that situation this season have gone just 4-17 ATS. Loss: Knicks were up 1 at end of third, but got ran in the 4th.
Chicago/Boston Under 193: The Bulls have reeled off a 6 game win streak, mostly due to their defense as they have gone under in all 6 of those games. The Bulls have now gone under the total in 10 of their 12 games this season after winning + going under the total. Teams have gone under in 11 of the 13 games since 1990 after winning + going under in 6 straight games. Teams have also gone under in 21 of 16 the last 2 seasons in conference games after 4 wins + going under. Boston has gone under in 2 straight games and teams have gone under in 9 of the 10 games this season playing as 4->5.5 point favorites in conference after winning ATS + going under at home. Six of the last seven meetings between these two have gone under the total as well. Win: Teams combine for just 175 point as this falls under by 18!
Milwaukee (+4.5) over New Jersey: The Nets are just 1-3 since losing Richard Jefferson, their lone win coming against a bad Atlanta team by 1 point. Milwaukee has won 4 games straight vs. the Nets and 5 in a row ATS. The last time the Bucks played on the road after winning SU + ATS + going under on the road, it was a 6 point win at New Jersey last season. Teams have gone just 4-17 ATS as home favorites of 4->5.5 points after winning + going under this season. New Jersey is playing in that situation tonight and should have trouble covering against this Milwaukee team. Loss: Milwaukee was within 4 with 20 seconds, but lose by 6 for another one basket loss.
Memphis (+5) over Phoenix: The Grizzlies are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now and they should be able to give the ailing Suns all they can handle. Memphis has lost just once in their last 10 games and are 8-2 ATS in that time, winning all 3 ATS on the road and winning 3 in a row ATS. In their last 5 games, the Grizzlies have outscored their opponents by 13 ppg. The Suns may be playing without Nash tonight as his back is ailing and without him they are a much worse team than their record indicates. The have lost 4 in a row SU + ATS due to his absence and they might be looking ahead to Saturday's game with the Spurs. Nash's backup point guard Barbosa is out this game, so running the offense may be sketchy at times for the Suns. Win: Memphis strolls to a 9 point win as underdogs on the road!
Memphis/Phoenix Under 200: The Grizzlies and Suns will meet with many situations saying this one should go under the total. For the Grizzlies, the Under is 10-1 in their last 11 games as road dogs after 2 wins ATS + going under the total and the under is 12-1 in their last 13 conference games after 2 wins + going under. Phoenix will be playing with an ailing Nash and their offensive pace should struggle. Teams have gone under in 10 of the 12 games played since 2000 as favorites after 4 straight wins ATS on the road and teams have gone under in 17 of 21 this season playing at home in conference after 4 straight road games. We like the prospect of this falling under the 200 mark tonight. Win: Phoenix scores just 79 as this one gone under by a whopping 33 points!
Tuesday, January 18, 2005:
Dallas (-10) over Washington: The Wizards were throttled by San Antonio last night and playing without Larry Hughes showed. Without him they lose their second leading scorer, 5.3 assists per game, and the league leader in steals. Washington lost by 9 at home with Hughes earlier this season to Dallas. Washington has allowed the most points per game in the NBA this season and should find it hard to stop a hot Mavericks team that has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Dallas is comfortable at home as they have not left Texas since Christmas and are 8-3 ATS on 2+ days rest this season. This game should be a blow out as Dallas has a clear advantage this evening. Win: Dallas rolls by Washington by 17, at one time leading by 30!
Monday, January 17, 2005:
Sacramento (-3) over L.A. Clippers: The Kings should be able to win this home and home match up against the Clippers as they have a superior team match up wise. Sacramento is playing as road favorites in a division game after a win and teams have gone 13-3-1 ATS in that position so far this season. The Clippers have gone just 2-12 ATS since last season in games with a 4->5.5 point spread after a road game. Teams have gone 0-10 ATS since last season in the NBA as home dogs in division games after losing SU + winning ATS + going under on the road. Teams have also gone 3-14 ATS this season as dogs in division games after winning ATS + going under. Win: Sacramento pulls away in the 4th to win by 6.
Houston/Memphis Under 184: The Grizzlies host the Rockets in a spot where the under seems to prevail most of the time. Memphis has gone under in 8 straight games at home this season against a conference opponent. The Grizzlies have also gone under in 14 straight as home favorites after going under at home. Memphis has gone under in all 12 games in franchise history as home favorites in conference games after winning ATS at home. Houston has gone under in 9 of their last 10 games as road dogs after going under at home and under in 22 of their last 27 in division games after 2 straight home games. Win: Memphis shuts Houston down to 80 points to keep this one under.
Saturday, January 15, 2004:
Indiana (-3.5) over Orlando: The Pacers are played huge last night in beating the Suns and should be ready for an Orlando team that is finishing a 4 game road trip. Indiana has won 2 in a row SU + ATS and have won 3 in a row SU + ATS at home. The Pacers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Orlando after 2 wins ATS and 23-7-3 ATS since 2000 as home favorites after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS. Orlando has gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games ATS and have dropped 11 in a row ATS on the road in conference after 3 straight road games. We like the Pacers to continue their momentum and bury the tired Magic. Loss: Indiana losses a tough game to the Magic.
Friday, January 14, 2004:
Indiana (+6) over Phoenix: The Pacers are a big home dog to the Suns, but should be able to keep this one close as they usually play well in this situation. The Pacers have gone 15-3 ATS since 2000 in non-conference games at home (winning 3 straight this season). The Pacers should be playing on a high note after ending a road trip with a big win in Memphis and playing a Suns team of which they have won the last 4 meetings in Indiana. Phoenix has lost 11 in a row ATS as favorites after losing SU + ATS + going over on the road (twice this season). Phoenix is also 3-13 ATS since 1990 as road favorites in non-conference games following a road game. Win: Indiana blows out the Suns in this game!
Memphis (-5) over Charlotte: The Bobcats have played well at home but will be running into a mad Memphis team tonight after getting their win streak broken. Memphis has gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 on the road. Teams are 13-3 ATS since the 2000 season as road favorites of 4->5.5 after losing ATS + going under at home. Teams are also 12-2 ATS this season as road favorites after losing ATS + going under at home. Charlotte has won just 1 time in their last 9 games and have been outscored by an average of 7 points in their last 5 games and out rebounded by 8. Memphis has gone 5-1 ATS on 2 days rest this season and should be well prepared to take out the Bobcats tonight. Win: Memphis leads throughout and dominates in this blow out!
Atlanta (+10) over Boston: The Hawks have slowly played better this season and should be able to hang with Boston tonight as they have gone 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games (would be 4 in a row if not for a 4th quarter lapse in Cleveland). The Hawks have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two and have only been outscored by and average of 2 points in their last 5 games. Boston has gone 13-3-2 ATS since the 2000 season at home after losing on the road. The Celtics are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 7-14 ATS on 1 days rest this season. Boston has not played well in their last 5 games as they have been outscored by an average of 2 points. Loss: Another one basket loss as the Celtics win by 12.
Thursday, January 13, 2004:
Cleveland/L.A. Lakers Under 197.5: This game has a high total posted and we don't think it deserves to be that high. The Lakers have gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games with the overs coming against two of the hottest offensive teams in basketball right now (Dallas and Houston). The last time these teams met in LA the total reached just 168 points. Cleveland has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games with the over winning only due to overtime. The Cavs rank 7th in the league on defense and have allowed just 88.6 points per game in their last 5 games. The Cavs have gone under in 10 of their 16 road games this season where the total score for those games has been an average of just 186 points. Win: This falls under as neither team breaks 100.
Wednesday, January 12, 2004:
Portland (+7) over Washington: The Trailblazers are playing their third game on this road trip and are playing with confidence after a line up shake up leading to a win in Philadelphia. They should be even more confident as they go to Washington where they have gone 4-1 in their last five trips to the capital. Washington has lost 7 straight ATS to Portland at home. They will be going for their 5th win in a row, but playing a lesser Portland team after wins over Seattle and Minnesota may cause Washington to have a let down. Portland should play well enough tonight to cover the 7 points. Win: Portland losses by just 4 points to cover the spread.
Portland/Washington Over 203: The Trailblazers have been blazing the over lately as they have gone over the total in 13 of their last 15 games. Portland has averaged a total of 207 points in their last 5 games and have given up over 100 points in 5 straight games. Washington has gone over in 13 of their last 16 as home favorites in non-conference games after winning + going over and in 16 of their last 19 non-conference games at home after a win. The Wizards have gone over in 5 of their last 6 games and have scored 100 points or more in 7 straight games. In their last 5 games, the total score for the Wizards and their opponents has been an average of 210. Win: This one skips past the total by 1 point.
New Orleans (+11.5) over Detroit: The Hornets will look to continue playing well as they have their first winning streak of the season. Since Baron Davis has returned to the line up, they have picked up their play. New Orleans usually can hang with Detroit when these two teams meet as they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The Hornets have won 3 in a row ATS as well. Detroit has been disappointing at home this season as they are being outscored on average by their opponents, including a waxing by Memphis in their last home game. Detroit may also be in for a let down after a big win in New Jersey last night. Loss: The Hornets struggle to keep close and lose by 14.
Philadelphia (+2) over Chicago: The Sixers will look to continue their strong play on the road as they visit Chicago. The Sixers are coming of a home loss to Portland and played their previous 8 games on the road. During that road trip the Sixers went an impressive 6-2 ATS. Philadelphia has gone 10-5 ATS in their last 15 overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bulls. Chicago has won 4 games in a row SU + ATS. This doesn't bode well for the Bulls as they are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games in that situation as home favorites. With Antonio Davis hobbled and the impressive rookie Ben Gordon questionable, we like the Sixers to pull of the upset tonight. Loss: The Sixers don't show for this game and get blown out.
L.A. Lakers (+2) over Denver: The Nuggets continue to play poor basketball and will be coming home after a loss on the road at Sacramento last night. The Nuggets are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games and have been outscored on average at home this season. Denver has gone 2-15-2 ATS in their last 19 conference games after losing + going over in 3 straight games. The Lakers have dominated the meetings between these two ATS as they have taken 7 of the last 10 ATS and won both meeting earlier this season. The Lakers are starting to play their best ball of the season as they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games with losses on the road to the hot Mavericks and championship favored Spurs. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and should be able to get a big road win tonight. Loss: The Nuggets bring their A game and bet the Lakers.
Tuesday, January 11, 2004:
Cleveland (-13) over Charlotte: The Cavs look to end a home stand with a bang and should mop up the Bobcats as the Cavs are great at home and the Cats stink on the road. The Cavs have outscored opponents by an average of double digits at home (winning their last 2 by 16 and 25), while the Bobcats have been outscored by an average of double digits on the road (losing by 20, 23, and 19 in their last 3). Charlotte has dropped 4 in a row ATS on the road. The Cavs have gone 16-1-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home favorites in conference after winning ATS and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 as favorites in conference after winning ATS. The Cavs have won the 3 previous meetings between these two clubs by 11, 16, and 17 with two of those games in Charlotte. Loss: Cavs play horrid and win in OT.
Milwaukee (-4) over Atlanta: The Bucks appear to be turning their season around, while the Hawks continue to go nowhere. Milwaukee has won 3 games in a row SU and are 6-3 in their last 9 overall. Atlanta has lost 6 games in a row and have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Milwaukee is playing after a loss + an under at home. Teams playing in that spot as road favorites of 4->5.5 have gone 13-3 ATS since last season. Teams playing in that spot as road favorites this season have gone 12-2 ATS. Milwaukee is finding the form that got them to the playoffs last season and if they are going to make it this season, we expect them to put up a big performance tonight against a much lesser Hawks team. Loss: These teams looked like the opposite of what they were supposed to be tonight.
Indiana (+7) over Memphis: The Pacers have had a dismal road trip as they have lost all 3 against Top tier opponents. Memphis is playing their best basketball of the season, but we like Indiana to respond big as they will give full effort to not go 0 for on their trip. The Pacers have gone 13-2 ATS as road dogs after losing + going over in 2 straight games, dating back to 1990. Teams have gone 17-4 ATS on the road against a non-conference opponent after losing ATS + going over on the road in 3 previous games since 1990. Teams have also gone 13-2 ATS since last season following losing + going over on the road. The Pacers should be able to keep it close enough to cover tonight. Win: The Pacers get the road win by 1 point outright.
Denver/Sacramento Under 204: The Kings traded away their best defensive player, but still should be able to hold the struggling Nuggets at bay. Denver has gone under in 26 of their 34 games since 1990 as road dogs after losing + going over in 2 straight games. The Kings have gone under in this situation many time. The under for the Kings has gone 12-0-1 in their last 13 as 8->9.5 point favorites after 3 losses ATS and 12-0 as favorites after losing + going over since last season. The King have gone under the total in 16 straight games as 8->9.5 point favorites after losing SU + ATS and under in 9 straight at home after losing SU + ATS + going over the total. Loss: High scoring 4th quarter ends the chances of an under.
Monday, January 10, 2004:
Orlando (+4) over Boston: The Magic will be looking for revenge of a home thumping they took at the hand of the Celtics earlier this season. The Magic have won 3 games in a row where they shot above 50% from the field. Boston has been horrid on the defensive end this season and making an adjustment tonight against Orlando should prove difficult. Boston has gone just 1-8 SU in their last 9 games and rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive points allowed. The Celtics have gone just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 2 seasons playing at home after losing a game on the road. Orlando should be able to keep this game a one score game, if not win it outright. Loss: Mobley gets traded mid day, we get screwed.
San Antonio/Utah Under 180.5: The Spurs have dominated again this season so far on the defensive end and that should continue tonight against a Utah team that has dropped 9 games in a row. The Spurs have allowed a league low 85.6 points per game and have gone under in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. The Spurs have also gone under in 9 of their last 10 games as road favorites in conference after losing ATS. Utah has gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 games scoring an average of just 85 points per contest. The Jazz have gone under in 10 of their last 11 games as home dogs in conference play after winning ATS. Six of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have gone under the total and it looks like that should happen again tonight. Loss: This one goes over the total in the final minutes.
Saturday, January 8, 2004:
San Antonio (-11.5) over Denver: The Spurs are favorites by a lot of points and should be able to bury the banged up and struggling Nuggets. The Spurs have gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as home favorites of 12->13.5 in conference after 2 straight wins and are 11-1 ATS since last season as home favorites in conference after 2 straight wins ATS. The Spurs have also won 9 straight ATS at home in conference after a previous home game. Denver has lost 5 in a row overall and 8 of their last 9 games. Denver has also dropped 8 in a row ATS playing as road dogs of 12->13.5 points after going over in their previous game. The Spurs are settled in at home and should be dominant in their performance today. Loss: Doomed by another 1 basket loss in the NBA.
New York/Cleveland Over 199: The Knicks go on the road to take on the Cavs in a game where these teams should be able to top the total. The Cavs have gone over in 10 of their last 11 in conference with a 6->7.5 point spread, 8 of their last 9 as home favorites after winning ATS + going under, and in 14 of 15 since last season at home after winning ATS + going under. The over for the Cavs is also 16-4-1 in their last 21 as 6->7.5 point favorites after winning + going under. The Knicks have gone over in 13 straight games as road dogs of 6->7.5 after losing + going under. The Cavs should carry a high energy pace that should lead to this one going over the total. Loss: Knicks don't show up on offense.
Sacramento/New Orleans Under 193.5: The Kings are tailing off a long road trip and should be tired and not shoot well against a New Orleans team that managed to score just 76 points last night. The Hornets went under with Memphis in that game and will be playing as home dogs after going under on the road, where they have gone under in 9 straight in that situation. The Kings have gone under in 14 straight as 8->9.5 point favorites after losing ATS on the road and under in 11 straight as 8->9.5 point favorites after 2 losses ATS. We think the total for this one is set way too high for this situation where these teams seem to go under the total often. Loss: Overtime game that goes over the total.
Friday, January 7, 2004:
Charlotte (+12) over Orlando: The Bobcats may not have as good a team as Orlando does, but we don't think they are 12 points worse either. Orlando has not played their best basketball recently as they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games. Charlotte played their best game on Wednesday night beating Minnesota and won the first meeting between these two by 11 points. Charlotte has also won 3 of their last 5 games. Orlando has gone just 1-16 ATS at home in conference games after a home game the past two seasons, including 1-13 ATS as home favorites. We'll take this high point amount as the Bobcats should cover tonight with a strong inside game. Loss: The Bobcats struggle to hang with the Magic.
New Orleans/Memphis Under 181.5: The Grizzlies are playing some of their best basketball of the season and should be able to shut down the Hornets defensively. New Orleans has gone under in 11 of their last 14 on the road after 5 straight overs and in 11 of their last 14 as dogs after losing SU + ATS + going over in 2 straight games since 1990. The Hornets have also gone under in 9 of their last 10 on the road after 4 overs. Memphis has gone under in 10 of their last 11 conference games following 5 straight wins and in 14 of their last 17 as home favorites in conference after a win. Teams have gone under in 10 of the 12 games played as home favorites of 10->11.5 points after winning ATS + going over this season. Win: Memphis wins as this one falls under the total by 20 points!
Thursday, January 6, 2004:
Memphis/Detroit Over 172: The Grizzlies have gone over in 3 straight games on the road and their offense is finally finding it's stride this season. The average total for Memphis' last 5 games has been 196 points, while the average for Detroit's games has been 185 in their last 5 (both well above the total in this contest). Memphis has gone over in 10 of their last 11 as road dogs of 6->7.5 in non-conference games after winning ATS and over in 6 straight non-conference games as road dogs of 6->7.5. Detroit is in a spot where teams have gone over often this season. The over is 14-3 when teams play as home favorites after winning + going under in 2 straight games and 10-2 when teams are playing as home favorites of 6->7.5 in non-conference games after a win. Win: Memphis goes over 100 as this one goes over the total by 8.
Wednesday, January 5, 2004:
Seattle (-2.5) over Orlando: The Magic have struggled of late going just 2-8 SU in their last 10 (3-7 ATS), while Seattle has stayed red hot on the road winning 5 straight (4-1 ATS). Seattle won both meetings ATS last season between these two and hold an advantage tonight. Teams have gone 10-2 ATS as road favorites of 2->3.5 points after 3 wins on the road (1990). Orlando has lost 6 in a row ATS as home dogs after 4 losses, are 1-9 ATS as 2->3.5 point dogs in non-conference games after losing + going under since 1990, and are just 3-12 ATS as home dogs after 4 losses in a row since 1999. Orlando should struggle again tonight against one of the best teams in the league. Loss: Seattle controls the 1st half, falls apart in the second.
Sacramento (-2) over Toronto: The Kings started their road trip last night with an easy win in New York and should be able to carry that momentum tonight into Toronto. The Kings have won 9 of the last 10 meetings ATS between these two teams. The Kings have won 3 in a row SU + ATS. Sacramento is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as favorites against Toronto and 11-3 ATS since 1999 as favorites in non-conference games after 3 wins ATS. Teams have gone 14-1 ATS as 2->3.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS + going over on the road since last season. Toronto is ranked 27th in the league on defense and should have trouble against the 2nd best offense. The Raptors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 at home in non-conference games after winning + going under and 7-22 ATS at home in non-conference games after a win since 1999. Loss: The Kings late rally isn't enough as they lose by 3.
Atlanta/Cleveland Over 197.5: The Cavs and Hawks have played over the total in many of their recent meetings, including 9 of their last 10 in Cleveland. For Atlanta the over is 11-2 in their last 13 vs. Cleveland as dogs after winning ATS and 11-1 as dogs in conference after winning ATS + going over since last season. In games after the Hawks lose SU + win ATS + go over, the over has won 6 straight in conference games as dogs and won 10 of the last 11 on the road. The Cavs have gone over in 4 of their last 5 games at home and in 11 of their last 12 as favorites against Atlanta after a win. Loss: Atlanta 8 point 4th quarter keep this one under the total.
Dallas (-9) over L.A. Lakers: The Mavs are a team that is looking like a team that is about to go on a long winning streak as they will continue to look to take out years of frustration against the Lakers. Dallas won by 19 points in their previous meeting in Dallas this season. The Mavs are 11-3 ATS as home favorites of 8->9.5 after 3 straight wins since 1990 and 13-4 ATS as home favorites of 8->9.5 after 2 straight wins since 1999. The Lakers have lost 7 in a row ATS as road dogs after losing + going under on the road and have gone just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 as road dogs after a road game. Teams have gone just 2-13 ATS as road dogs of 8->9.5 after losing on the road this season. Win: The Mavs control the game throughout and win by 14.
Phoenix/Houston Over 203: The Suns are the highest scoring team in the league and should be able to get Houston to play at their high scoring pace this evening. Phoenix has gone over in 11 of their last 12 as road favorites of 2->3.5 points in conference after winning SU + ATS and in 10 of their last 12 as favorites against Houston after 3 straight wins. Houston has gone over in 7 straight as dogs to Phoenix after going under and over in 9 of their last 10 as dogs to Phoenix. Teams have gone over in 13 of the 17 games played since last season as home dogs of 2->3.5 points after 3 wins ATS. The over has won in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two, taking the win in the last 3. Win: This one goes over by 3 as the Suns win again.
Tuesday, January 4, 2004:
New York (+3) over Sacramento: The Kings may be in for a let down as they take a long trip to the east coast following their big win over the Spurs on Sunday. The Knicks will look to get back on track and are in a good spot to do it. Teams playing on the road in a 2->3.5 point lined game after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS have gone just 3-11 ATS this season so far. The Knicks have dominated the Kings in New York as they have gone 11-2 ATS in their meetings here since 1990. New York is also 9-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs after losing SU + ATS + going under at home and they are 19-4-2 ATS at home since last season after a loss. Teams have gone 20-6-1 ATS since 1990 as home dogs in non-conference games after a home game. Loss: Poor first half leads to this home defeat to the Kings.
Monday, January 3, 2004:
Memphis (-9) over Utah: The Jazz are a much worse team without their star Kirilinko and have hardly competed this season without him as they have lost 5 games in a row SU + ATS being outscored by an average of 12 points. Memphis has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall and have outscored opponents by an average of 14 points in their last 5 games. Utah has gone just 1-10 ATS this season playing as dogs in conference games. Memphis has gone 9-1-1 ATS at home after winning on the road the last 2 seasons. This season, teams have gone 11-2 ATS as home favorites of 8->9.5 after winning + going over (Memphis' position) and teams have gone 2-13-1 ATS as road dogs of 8->9.5 after losing + going over (Utah's position). Win: The Grizzlies close this one out to cover the spread and win by 10.
Detroit (-3.5) over Chicago: The Bulls have played well over the past month but should get knocked back down to size against a Pistons team that looks set to go on a run. Detroit has won 4 of their last 5 ATS and have won 7 in a row ATS as road favorites in division games after 2 home games. Teams have gone 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 as road favorites in division games after a win this season. Detroit will look to avenge a home loss to the Bulls earlier this season and they are 8-2 ATS against Chicago in their last 10 meetings. The Bulls have gone just 1-9 ATS since 1999 as home dogs to the Pistons and should have their hands full again tonight. Win: The Pistons shut down the Bulls in the second half en route to a 7 point win.
Sunday, January 2, 2004:
Boston (+6.5) over Detroit: The Celtics will be hungry for a road win as they travel to Detroit who hasn't been dominant lately. Boston has gone 20-7 ATS since 1990 as road dogs of 6->7.5 after going over in 2 straight games and 20-7-1 since 2000 as road dogs after going over at home. Boston has also won 7 in a row ATS as road dogs of 6->7.5 points in conference games after going over at home. Detroit has lost 7 in a row ATS after going under at home this season, 9 in a row ATS at home after losing + going under at home, and 6 in a row ATS as 6->7.5 point favorites after 2 losses ATS. Detroit has outscored opponents by just .2 points this season and should not be laying this many points today. Loss: Boston losses by 12 as they play a poor 3rd quarter.
Wednesday, December 29, 2004:
Houston/Cleveland Over 186: The Rockets have been able to score more points lately, especially on the road where they should be able to help this total go over tonight as they did last night in Milwaukee. Houston has gone over in 14 of their last 16 as dogs in non-conference games after losing SU + ATS + going over. The Rockets have gone over in their last 4 meeting in Cleveland with the Cavs and have averaged 193 points total in their last 5 games overall. The Cavs have gone over in 16 of their last 20 as home favorites in non-conference games after 2 overs. The over for Cleveland is also 6-0 since 2000 as home favorites in non-conference after 2 overs and 17-3 in their last 20 as home favorites in non-conference. Loss: Another 1 point loss as we just miss another 3-0 night in the NBA.
Milwaukee/Orlando Over 206.5: The Bucks offense has exploded in their past 2 games and the Magic should help accompany them to a high scoring affair. Milwaukee has gone over in 10 of their last 11 as road dogs after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS and over in 4 straight games overall. Teams have gone over in 11 of the 12 games played this season on the road in conference after 2 straight wins + going over. Orlando has gone over in an amazing 19 of their last 20 as 8->9.5 point favorites after 2 home games. The over for the Magic has also gone 7-1-1 as 8->9.5 point home favorites after a home game in their last 9. We like a high scoring affair here tonight in Orlando again. Win: This one passes the total by 9 points.
Tuesday, December 28, 2004:
Houston/Milwaukee Over 185: The Rockets have been able to score more points lately, especially on the road where they should be able to help this total go over tonight. Teams have gone over in 7 of the 8 games since last season as road favorites after 3 home games. Milwaukee has gone over in 9 straight non-conference games as home dogs of 2->3.5 points after winning ATS and over in 11 straight as home dogs after a win. Teams have gone over in 11 of the 13 games since last season played as home dogs of 2->3.5 in non-conference games after winning + going over since last season. Milwaukee has also gone over in 7 straight as home dogs in non-conference games after a win. Win: Milwaukee help this one fly over the total by 17 points!
Monday, December 27, 2004:
New York/Orlando Over 204: The Knicks travel on the road to take on a high scoring Orlando team that they should be able to keep the pace with. The Knicks have gone over in 9 of their last 10 as road dogs of 6->7.5 in conference after going under at home and over in all 6 the last 2 seasons as 6->7.5 point dogs in conference. The Knicks have also gone over in 8 straight as road dogs after a home game and in 6 straight as dogs after a win. Orlando has gone over in all 6 since 2000 as 6->7.5 point favorites after winning + going under and over in 10 of their last 11 as favorites in conference after an under. This season, teams have gone over in all 9 games as home favorites of 6->7.5 after winning + going under. Win: This one goes over easily by a whopping 26 points!
New Orleans/Indiana Under 181: The Hornets will travel to Indiana in a spot where the under looks like a strong play. New Orleans has gone under in 8 straight since 2000 as road dogs of 8->9.5 after winning ATS and under in 9 straight as road dogs of 8->9.5 after a road game since 2000. Teams have gone over in all 9 games this season as road dogs of 8->9.5 after going over in their 3 previous games. Indiana has gone under when playing the Hornets often as the under has gone 9-0-1 in their last 10 meetings. Teams playing in Indiana's position of home favorites of 8->9.5 after 2 losses ATS + going over at home, have gone under in 8 of the 9 games since the 2000 season. Loss: Another of our many one basket losses this season.
Philadelphia/Portland Over 187: The Sixers have been going over the total as of late as they have averaged over 107 points on offense in their last 6 games, going over in all 6 of them. Philadelphia has also gone over in 9 straight games as dogs in a non-conference game after a win and over in 5 straight after winning + going over this season. Portland has gone over in 11 straight as 6->7.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS on the road. Teams have gone over in 7 of the 8 games played since last season as home favorites of 6->7.5 points in non-conference after 3 straight road games. Portland has gone over in 6 of their last 7 and should be able to score enough to put this one over the total. Win: This one goes over easily by a whopping 28 points!
Wednesday, December 22, 2004:
New York (+4) over Boston: The Knicks were thrashed last night by Dallas, but we like their chances of making a quick turn around tonight in Boston when they look to avenge a big loss at home earlier this season to the Celtics. The Celtics lost to a Shaq-less team in Miami last night and will have a long flight home. Boston has gone 0-6 ATS at home after an over this season and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. New York at home in a 4->5.5 point spread game. Boston is just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as home favorites in conference after 3 overs and 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 at home after losing on the road since last season. The Knicks have gone 7-1 ATS as road dogs of 4->5.5 points after losing + over on the road and are 7-0 ATS since 2000 as 4->5.5 point dogs in conference after 2 losses ATS. Loss: Another heartbreaker for us as we lose by just 1 point.
Utah (+3) over Toronto: The Jazz should be able to make it two straight wins on the road against a Raptors team that is in disarray after the Vince Carter trade. Toronto has lost 7 in a row ATS as home favorites in non-conference games after losing SU + ATS + going over on the road and have dropped 10 straight ATS as favorites in non-conference games after losing ATS and going over. Utah will seek revenge tonight for their embarrassing loss to Toronto at home this season. The Jazz have won 8 straight ATS in games with a 2->3.5 point spread after 4 previous road games. Utah has also won 4 in a row ATS on the road in non-conference games after 3 previous road games. Loss: Utah threatens to make it a game, but can't keep it close enough.
Memphis (-3.5) over Golden State: Memphis has taken 3 straight meetings ATS against the Warriors and should be able to make it 4 tonight. The Warriors are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Wizards and are not in a good position to cover tonight. The Warriors have gone 0-7 ATS at home in conference games this season, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 as home dogs of 2->3.5 points in conference after losing + winning ATS, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as 2->3.5 point dogs in conference after losing + going under. Memphis is 9-2 ATS after a road game this season and 6-0 ATS since last season after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS on the road. Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS all time as favorites after 2 wins on the road. Memphis' defense should be able to shut down the Warriors enough to cover the spread as they are now the 5th best defensive team in the league. Loss: Memphis blows a 10 point halftime lead.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004:
Minnesota/Cleveland Under 197: The Timberwolves will come into Cleveland and play a game that should go under this high total. Minnesota is playing in a spot where teams have gone under in 9 of the 11 since last season in games played after a home game on the road vs. non-conference opponents where the spread is PK-> 1.5. Cleveland has gone under in 6 straight games as home dogs of Pk->1.5 after losing ATS and going over at home (since 1990). The Cavs have also gone under in 7 straight games since 2000 in PK->1.5 after losing ATS at home and in 11 of their last 13 as dogs after 2 straight losses ATS + SU. Teams have gone under in 18 of the 22 games since 2000 as home dogs of PK->1.5 after losing SU + ATS + going over at home. Loss: This one goes over in the final minute for another close loss.
Monday, December 20, 2004:
Utah (+6.5) over Philadelphia: The Jazz continue on their long road trip and will be longing for a win tonight. Philadelphia has played well lately, but are due for a let down in a situation. Philadelphia has gone just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites in non-conference play after winning SU + ATS (a dismal 0-8 ATS in this situation following a road game). Philly has also dropped 7 straight ATS as home favorites after winning ATS and going over on the road. The Jazz have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Sixers and are 13-3 ATS since 1990 as road dogs in non-conference games after 2 previous losses on the road. Win: Utah wins this one on the road outright!
Sunday, December 19, 2004:
Utah (+7) over New York: The Jazz are in the midst of a long east coast road trip that they have gone 0-2 on so far and will be primed to play well in New York today. The Knicks have been playing hot, but falter ATS when they get this hot. The Knicks have gone 1-11-1 ATS in their last 12 as favorites after 5 straight wins ATS. The Knicks have also gone just 1-7 ATS as home favorites of 6->7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 11-3 ATS all time as road dogs in non-conference games after 2 losses SU + ATS + on the road. Utah has also gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road in non-conference after losing SU + ATS and going over. Utah has won the last 2 meetings ATS and should play tough enough to keep this one close as the Knicks may be in for a let down. Win: Utah keep within distance and losses by just 1 for the easy cover.
Orlando (+7) over Miami: The Magic have been a surprise this season and are still exceeding expectations. They should be able to play tough against Miami, who has struggled ATS in this situation before. Miami is just 1-7 ATS at home in division games after going over at home in their last 8 games. Miami is also 0-7-1 ATS as home favorites of 6->7.5 after 4 wins since 1990. Orlando has won 7 straight contests ATS over Miami following 2 wins ATS. The Magic match up well with Miami and should be able keep this one close enough to cover. Loss: Orlando led through most of the game and lose control at the end and fails.
Saturday, December 18, 2004:
Houston (-4) over Charlotte: Houston has under achieved so far this season, but are playing their best basketball of the season as T-Mac has been going on a tear. Charlotte may suffer a let down after a tough loss a few nights ago to the leagues worst team in New Orleans. The Bobcats have been outscored by an average of 10 points in their last 5 games overall. Houston has won 5 of their last 6 games overall and should be disciplined enough to win easy against a lesser opponent tonight. Houston has gone 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites after 2 wins ATS at home. The Rockets are also a strong 10-2 ATS since 2000 on the road in non-conference games after 2 home games. T-Mac should be able to score plenty and keep Houston out far enough to cover. Loss: Overtime game that Bobcats win by 1.
San Antonio (-13.5) over Golden State: The Spurs have been on fire since their embarrassing loss to the Rockets and should be able to pound a road weary Warriors team that is playing for the 4th time in 5 nights to end a long road trip. The Warrior's have gone 0-6 ATS at San Antonio after 2 losses since the 2000 season and 0-6-1 ATS this season in conference games after losing + going over. The Spurs have gone an amazing 13-1 ATS at home in conference games after 2 wins since last season and have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS at home in conference after 2 unders since last season. The Spurs have also covered in 6 straight at home against Golden State after a win (winning the last 2 by 20 and 25 points). San Antonio should be able to race to a fast start and finish this game off with their strong bench. Win: The Spurs bury the Warriors in the second half and win by 19.
Chicago (-3) over Indiana: The Bulls continue to improve as a team while the Pacers are struggling without their star players. The Bulls have gone 7-0 ATS in team history vs. Indiana when the spread is 2->3.5 after a win. The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season as they have won 4 in a row ATS. Teams have gone 14-4 ATS as home favorites in division games after 4 wins ATS since last season. Indiana beat an undermanned team at home vs. New Jersey last night and should find it tough to win in Chicago tonight. Indiana has gone just 1-15 ATS as road dogs of 2->3.5 points after a home game since 2000. Win: The Bulls lead almost throughout and win by 14 points.
Friday, December 17, 2004::
New York (+2) over Philadelphia: The Sixers are playing well, but will face another team that is playing well in the Knicks. New York has gone 6-0 ATS as road dogs in division games after 5 wins ATS since 1990, and in that same time they have gone 6-0 ATS against Philly after 3 wins ATS. The Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games after losing + going over and are 6-1 ATS this season on 1 day's rest. The Sixers have gone 0-6 ATS at home in division games after 2 wins SU + ATS + going over and have lost 6 straight ATS to the Knicks at home after an over. Philly is also just 1-11 ATS since 2000 as 2->3.5 point favorites after 2 wins ATS. Win: Knicks make a great comeback and win outright in OT.
Golden St./Houston Under 181: The Warriors come into tonight game against a Houston team that has settled in at home. Houston has gone under 9 straight games as home favorites of 6->7.5 after 3 straight games at home. Houston has also gone under in 9 of their last 10 as home favorites after 3 straight home games and under in their last 6 against the Warriors as home favorites after winning ATS. Teams have gone under in all 11 games since last season as home favorites of 6->7.5 in conference games after 3 straight unders at home. Golden State has gone under in all 6 games the last 2 seasons as road dogs in conference after going over on the road. We like Houston to control the pace and keep this one under the total tonight. Loss: Another heartbreaker in the NBA for us as this one goes over by 2 points.
Thursday, December 16, 2004:
Cleveland (+5.5) over Detroit: The Cavs have won 2 straight and should have more energy than a Detroit team that had a tough game in New York last night. The Cavs played last night, but were able to rest their starters for most of the 4th quarter. Detroit has gone 0-7 ATS as favorites after a win this season and 0-6 ATS against the Cavs as favorites after winning on the road since 1990. Teams have gone just 2-13 ATS this season as home favorites in conference after winning + losing ATS. The last 2 seasons the Cavs have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in division games after 2 wins in a row SU + ATS. The Cavs are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 division games after a win. We'll take the 5.5 points and the Central division leading Cavs to keep it close in Detroit tonight. Loss: Cavs blow a 10 point lead at halftime and lose by 12.
Wednesday, December 15, 2004:
Golden State (-4) over New Orleans: The Hornets are off to the worst start in the NBA and play host to the Warriors, whom are playing their best basketball of the season going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Golden State has won 7 in a row ATS on the road in conference after winning SU + ATS + going over on the road and 7 in a row ATS as favorites after winning on the road. The Warriors have also won 7 in a row in conference after 2 straight wins SU + ATS. The Hornets have lost 3 straight ATS at home, 7 straight ATS as home dogs after losing on the road (0-3 this season), and 8 straight as home dogs of 4->5.5 in conference after winning ATS. The rash of injuries the Hornets are plagued with should prevent them from competing tonight. Loss: The Warrior put up a stinker in New Orleans and lose to the worst team in the NBA.
Atlanta (+11.5) over Houston: The Hawks visit the Rockets tonight and should be able to keep it close enough to cover this high point spread. The Hawks have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as dogs in non-conference after losing ATS + going over in 2 straight games and have won 4 in a row ATS this season after 2 losses SU and ATS. Since the 2000 season, Atlanta has gone 8-1-1 ATS in non-conference games after 2 losses + going over. Houston is a miserable 0-15 ATS all time as home favorites of 10->11.5 points after losing at home. The Rockets have also gone 0-6 ATS in non-conference games so far this season, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 as home favorites in non-conference games after losing at home, and have dropped 7 in a row ATS as home favorites after a loss. Loss: Atlanta gives up in the 4th after keeping it within distance the first 3 quarters.
Utah (+11) over Phoenix: The Suns are the hottest team in basketball, but should find it difficult to cover tonight against a team that will be seeking revenge for an embarrassing home loss earlier this season. Phoenix has gone 0-6 ATS as favorites after 5 straight overs since 1990 and 0-6 ATS against Utah after going over at home since the 2000 season. Phoenix has also lost 7 in a row ATS as home favorites in conference after 2 home games and have lost 7 in a row ATS as home favorites in conference after 1 home game. Teams in Utah's position have fared well ATS in history. Teams are 7-1-1 ATS as road dogs of 10->11.5 after winning SU + losing ATS since 2000 and teams are 5-0-1 ATS this season as road dogs of 10->11.5 after losing ATS at home. We like the Jazz to come out with attitude tonight and keep this one close enough to cover. Loss: Utah starts strong, then fades away.
Tuesday, December 14, 2004:
New York/New Jersey Over 183.5: The Knicks and Nets meet in this rivalry game that should be able to top the total. The Knicks have gone over in 2 straight games and their games have averaged a total of 194 points in their last 5. New York has also gone over in 8 straight on the road in conference after a home game and over in 7 straight this season after winning SU + ATS. The Nets have gone over in all 3 games since the return of J. Kidd and over in 11 of the last 13 in division after winning SU + ATS. This season, teams have gone over in 10 of the 12 games played as dogs in division games after 2 wins. The over has won in 4 of their last 5 meetings and this should be another. Loss: 31 point 4th quarter kills this one.
Sunday, December 12, 2004:
Milwaukee (+4) over Philadelphia: The Bucks are starting to play their best basketball of the year (they have gone 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall) and should catch Philly in a spot where have struggled ATS before. Philadelphia has gone just 1-9 ATS as home favorites against Milwaukee after winning ATS and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall. Philadelphia has also gone just 2-11 in their last 13 games as home favorites after winning SU + ATS and going under. In the last 2 seasons Philly has gone 0-9 ATS as 4->5.5 point favorites after winning ATS. Milwaukee has gone a stellar 6-0 ATS as road dogs at Philadelphia of a 4->5.5 point spread after winning ATS. Loss: Burned again in the last minute as we lose by 2 points again.
Saturday, December 11, 2004:
Atlanta (+3) over New Jersey: The Nets have been a better team since the return of Jason Kidd, but he may not see many minutes playing in a back to back game after an overtime. Teams have gone 1-11-1 ATS on the road this season after win + losing ATS + going over. The Nets will also be playing without Mourning and the Hawks should take advantage of their size as they did last night in Detroit. The Hawks have won 2 of their last 3 games and should be competitive enough to win tonight. Atlanta has gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home dogs in conference after 3 unders and have won 7 in a row ATS at home after 3 unders. Loss: Another one basket loss.
Sacramento/Indiana Under 197.5: The Pacers have had defensive problems since the suspensions but this total just seems too high for this match-up tonight. Indiana has gone under in two straight games and have gone under in 9 of their last 10 games in non-conference as dogs after losing + going under in their previous game. Sacramento has gone under in 6 straight games as non-conference favorites after losing SU + ATS and going over. The Kings have also gone under in 16 of their last 17 games as 8->9.5 point favorites after losing SU + ATS. We like the prospects of poor shooting tonight as both teams played tough game last night on the road. Win: Even overtime can't keep this one from going under.
Seattle (-7.5) over Boston: The Sonics have show they are a top status team in the West, yet the line-makers favor them as if they are not. Seattle should come out fired up as they seek to avenge one of their 3 losses this season against a road weary Boston team. Seattle has gone 6-0 ATS as 6->7.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning + going over on the road and 13-1 ATS as 6->7.5 point favorites after winning + going over on the road (since 1990). The Sonics are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 at home after 4 wins ATS and have won 6 straight ATS at home after winning on the road. The Celtics have gone just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as dogs in non-conference games after winning ATS + going under and are just 5-14-1 ATS on the road in non-conference games following 3 road games (last year they lost by 21 in Seattle in this same situation). Loss: Seattle struggles in the second half an blows their 5 point lead.
Friday, December 10, 2004:
New York (+5) over Washington: The Wizards have been a surprise team this season, but enter tonight's games as favored by too many points. The Knicks have won 6 in a row SU in this series and should be a tough task tonight. New York has gone 34-14-4 ATS as road dogs in conference games after 2 unders (winning 6 straight) and 13-1 ATS in their last 14 as dogs in conference after 2 unders. The Knicks are also 7-1 ATS the past 2 seasons as 4->5.5 point dogs in conference games. Washington has gone 4-13 ATS as home favorites of 4->5.5 after 2 home games and are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 21 in conference after losing ATS + going over. Win: New York losses in final seconds, but covers the spread.
Memphis (+5.5) over Miami: The Grizzlies are starting to come out of their early season slumber. Memphis has won 8 in a row ATS as dogs after winning on the road, 6 straight ATS as road dogs of 4->5.5 points after winning on the road, and 7 in a row ATS as 4->5.5 point dogs after winning on the road. Memphis is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as road dogs of 4->5.5 in non-conference games following a previous road game. Miami has a great record this season SU, but have been less than impressive ATS. Miami has gone 0-8-1 ATS this season as home favorites and have dropped 8 straight ATS after a win. When teams are playing as home favorites of 4->5.5 after 2 wins this season, they are just 1-14 ATS. We like the Grizz to keep this one close tonight. Loss: Another close loss here by just 2.5 points.
Orlando/Golden State Over 206.5: The Magic and Warriors have been playing in high scoring affairs as of late and should be in another shoot out tonight. Orlando has gone over in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites in non-conference after winning SU + ATS + going over. The Magic have also gone over in 14 of their last 16 as 2->3.5 point favorites after winning ATS. Golden State has gone over in 7 straight match ups against Orlando after losing + going over and in 7 of their last 8 against the Magic as home dogs. The Warriors have also gone over in 7 of their last 8 at home in non-conference games after losing and going over on the road. Win: Teams eclipse the total in this one easily as Orlando sneaks out the win.
Thursday, December 9, 2004:
San Antonio (-6) over Houston: This inner state rivalry has gone in the way of the Spurs as they have won 6 straight meetings ATS overall and 6 straight meetings at Houston following a loss SU + ATS + going over at home. As road favorites of 6->7.5 points, the Spurs have also won 8 straight ATS after losing SU + ATS + going over and 7 straight ATS in division play after a loss. Houston has lost 7 in a row ATS as home dogs in division games after 2 losses ATS (3 of those to the Spurs). The Rockets have also dropped 7 in a row ATS at home overall and 7 in a row ATS in conference games after winning SU + losing ATS. Houston has gone 0-12-1 ATS in their last 13 games in division play following 2 wins. We like the Spurs to bounce back big after their home loss last night. Loss: Spurs blow a 10-point lead in the final minute.
Wednesday, December 8, 2004:
New York (-4) over New Orleans: The Knicks should be able to stop their losing streak against the worst team in the league so far this season. The Knicks have won 4 of the last 5 meetings ATS between these two. The Knicks have also won 7 games in a row ATS as road favorites in non-conference games after 2 losses. This season teams are 7-1 ATS as 4->5.5 point favorites after losing and going under on the road. New Orleans has gone just 1-7 ATS this season at home, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games as 4->5.5 point dogs after 3 losses, and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as home dogs after losing on the road. Teams have gone just 1-7 ATS this season as home dogs in non-conference games of 4->5.5 after 2 straight losses. Win: The Knicks control the game throughout as they win by 7 in the end.
Seattle/San Antonio Under 184: Seattle has had one of the best offenses so far this season, but are playing the best defensive team in the league tonight on the road. Seattle has gone under in 6 straight against San Antonio after 2 wins SU + ATS and under in 10 of their last 12 conference games following 2 wins + going over. San Antonio has gone under in 9 of their last 10 as home favorites of 10->11.5 after 6 wins, under in 6 straight as home favorites of 10->11.5 after winning SU + ATS + going under, under in 11 of their last 12 home games after 4 straight wins, and under in 6 straight as 10->11.5 point favorites after winning SU + ATS + going under. The last 3 meetings in San Antonio have gone under the total and tonight's game should follow suit. Loss: Sonics set the pace early and this one goes over.
Tuesday, December 7, 2004:
Dallas/Minnesota Over 203.5: The Timberwolves are playing hot basketball and should look to keep a high tempo against a Dallas team that may be a bit fatigued from last night. Even a bit fatigued, Dallas can still put points on the board. Dallas has gone over in 22 of their 29 games played since 2000 as road dogs after a loss. The last 3 times Dallas has come into Minnesota as dogs the over has won easily. Minnesota has gone over in 9 of their last 10 as home favorites after 4 wins ATS, over in 5 straight at home after a road win, and over in 7 straight as 6->7.5 point favorites after winning + going over since last season. The over is 7-0 for Minnesota when they play Dallas after 3 wins in a row. Loss: Unfortunately we made this pick before the Sprewell suspension was announced.
Golden St./Phoenix Under 202.5: The Suns have gone over a lot this season, but the books are adjusting as they have gone under in 3 of their last 5 games at home. Phoenix has also gone under in all 6 games in team history as home favorites of 14->15.5 after winning ATS + going over on the road. Golden State has gone under in 10 straight division games on the road after 2 wins ATS and in 7 of their last 8 as road dogs of 14->15.5 in division games after 2 home games. Teams playing as road dogs of 14->15.5 in division games after 2 wins ATS at home have gone under in 9 of the 10 games since 1990. Golden State has managed just 86.6 points a game on the road this season and they shouldn't be able to score a lot tonight. Loss: Neither team plays defense as this topples over the total.
Monday, December 6, 2004:
Philadelphia/Atlanta Over 193: The Hawks have the worst defense in the league, giving up 111 points per game and Philadelphia is ranked 21st in the league on defense. Philadelphia is due for a big offensive game and they have gone over in 7 straight trips to Atlanta after a win. Atlanta has gone over in 10 of their last 11 after 7 losses, 9 of their last 10 as dogs after 3 overs, and 7 in a row as home dogs of 4->5.5 in conference after 4 losses in a row. Atlanta has also gone over in 7 straight against Philadelphia at home after losing ATS and going over in their previous game. Loss: This falls short of the total by just a couple buckets.
San Antonio/Chicago Under 181.5: The Spurs and Bulls will meet in a game where these teams are heading for a low scoring affair. The Spurs have gone under in 6 straight as favorites in non-conference games after 6 wins since last season and under in 7 of their last 8 as favorites after 7 wins. Teams on the road since last season in non-conference games after 6 wins have gone under in 12 of the 13 games. The Bulls have gone under in 9 straight games as home dogs in non-conference games after losing on the road and in 6 straight at home in non-conference after 3 unders. Chicago has gone under in all 8 games since last season as home dogs in non-conference games after a road game. Win: Bulls score just 75 as this falls under easily.
Sunday, December 5, 2004:
Boston/Sacramento Over 206: The Kings and Celtics will face off in a spot that is familiar for this one to go over. Boston has gone over in 11 of their last 14 visits to Sacramento and have averaged over 200 points total in their games this season. Sacramento has gone over in all 8 games since 1990 as home favorites of 10->11.5 after 3 wins ATS. The Kings have also gone over in 8 of their last 9 as home favorites after 3 wins and in 6 straight against Boston at home after 2 wins. Since 2000, the Kings have gone over in all 5 games they have played as home favorites after winning SU + ATS in 3 straight. Win: This game flys over the total as it hits 224 for our 5th win in a row!
Saturday, December 4, 2004:
Toronto/Cleveland Over 194: The Cavs will host the Raptors and this one has the makings of a game that should go over. The over for Cleveland has gone 9-1-1 in their last 11 as 6->7.5 point favorites in conference after winning SU + ATS + going under. The Cavs have also gone over in 6 straight at home after 3 road games and in 6 straight at home after winning ATS + going under on the road. Toronto has gone over in 4 of their 5 games with the total between 190 - 199. The last two times Toronto played back to back games, the total scores were 223 and 227. Toronto has gone over in 7 of their last 8 as 6->7.5 point dogs after losing + winning ATS on the road and 16 of 24 as dogs after losing on the road in 2 straight games. Win: The Cavs fast start zooms this game past the total.
Cleveland (-7.5) over Toronto: The Cavs are a team playing with alot of confidence while the Raptors are breaking apart. After last night game at Boston, two starters will be benched, including Alston contemplating his career. Toronto has gone 3-11-1 ATS since last season in conference games after they win ATS + go under. The Cavs have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as favorites against the Raptors after winning ATS. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as home favorites in conference after winning ATS on the road and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites after a win ATS. Cleveland matches up well against Toronto and should be able to cover tonight. Win: The Cavs win by 8, almost blowing a 24 point lead.
Detroit/New Orleans Under 173.5: The Hornets have struggled this season due to their 3 offensive weapons being sidelined due to injuries (Magloire, Davis, Mashburn). The Hornets have gone under in 4 straight games. The Hornets have gone under in 9 of their last 11 as home dogs in non-conference games after 4 losses and in 11 of 14 since 2000 at home after 4 losses. The Piston have gone under all 7 times at New Orleans after losing + going under. Detroit has gone under in 6 straight games overall, averaging just 82.8 point a game in their last 5 (the Hornets have averaged just 83.4). The under is 6-1 in Detroit's last 7 as favorites after winning ATS + going under on the road. Win: New Orleans continues to struggle as this falls under easily.
San Antonio (-4.5) over Milwaukee: The Spurs will look to continue playing great basketball as they have won 6 games in a row, going 5-1 ATS. San Antonio has gone 9-0 ATS in their last 9 as road favorites of 4->5.5 points after losing ATS + going under at home and 6-0 ATS as road favorites of 4->5.5 in non-conference games after 5 straight wins. Milwaukee has struggled lately going just1-8 straight up. The Bucks have been a team to historically struggle against the Western Conference as they have gone 45-69-2 ATS since 1990. The Bucks have dropped 9 of their last 10 ATS against non-conference opponents after an over. Win: Spurs blow out the Bucks in this games as San Antonio dominates.
Friday, December 3, 2004:
Washington/Atlanta Over 200.5: The Wizards are perhaps the most surprising teams in the NBA while the Hawk continue to play poor defense. Washington has gone over in all 7 games since 1990 in division on the road with a 4->5.5 point spread after winning + going under. Teams have gone over in 12 of the 15 games since last season on the road in conference after 6 wins ATS. The Over for Atlanta has gone 7-0 at home after losing + winning ATS + going over at home, 7-0 as home dogs of 4->5.5 after losing SU + winning ATS, and 9-1 as dogs after 7 straight losses. Atlanta has gone over in 8 straight as home dogs of 4->5.5 points in division games and in 8 straight since last season as home dogs in conference after winning ATS. Win: Washington sets the pace by scoring 117 points.
Minnesota/Phoenix Over 210: This total is set high, but we think that it isn't high enough as both these teams have potent offenses. Minnesota has scored over 100 in 4 straight games and Phoenix has scored over 100 in 6 of their last 7 games. Minnesota has gone over in all 9 conference games they have played with a 2->3.5 point spread after 3 wins SU + ATS since 1990. Teams have gone over in 9 of the 10 games as 2->3.5 point dogs in conference after 4 straight overs since last season. Phoenix has gone over in 10 of their last 11 as favorites in conference after 7 straight wins and in 8 of their last 9 against Minnesota since 2000 after winning ATS. Loss: Teams play enough defense to keep this one under the total.
Thursday, December 2, 2004:
Houston (+7.5) over Dallas: The Rockets have struggled badly of late, but have a good chance to turn it around against an in state rival who has already lost 3 games at home this season. Dallas has lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. Dallas has gone just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as home favorites in conference after losing SU + ATS + going over at home. Teams are just 1-8 ATS at home in a division game after a home game this season. Houston has gone 13-1 ATS in team history as 6->7.5 point dogs after losing at home, 5-0-1 ATS on the road after losing + going under in 3 straight games, 7-0 ATS as road dogs of 6->7.5 in division games after 2 losses, and 6-0 ATS as road dogs in division game after 4 straight losses. Teams have gone 24-7 ATS since 1990 on the road in division after losing SU + ATS + going under in 3 straight games. We'll take the 7 points in this division matchup. Win: We escape with a .5 point win as we got the line at 7.5 on www.myhandicapper.com, should have covered easily as this one ends up in OT.
Wednesday, December 1, 2004:
Toronto (+6) over Orlando: The Raptors are coming off a big win at Miami last night and are playing in a spot where they usually cover the spread. Toronto has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as road dogs to Orlando after a previous road game. Since 1990, Toronto has gone 6-1 ATS as road dogs of 6->7.5 after winning ATS on the road and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as road dogs of 6->7.5 in a conference game after a road game. Orlando has dropped 11 in a row ATS as home favorites after a home game and are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games as home favorites after losing + going over at home. Orlando has gone just 1-7 ATS as home favorites against Toronto following a previous home game and we think the 6 points are way too much tonight. Loss: Orlando brings their A game and the Raptors stink.
Philadelphia/San Antonio Under 187.5: The Sixers go on the road to San Antonio as 10->11.5 point dogs. Teams playing in that situation this season have gone under in 7 of those 8 games after going over on the road in their previous game. San Antonio has gone under in 10 of their last 11 as home favorites after 4 wins SU + ATS and 12 of their last 14 at home following 4 straight wins. Since 2000, the Spurs have gone under in all 5 games as home favorites of 10->11.5 after 2 straight overs. These teams combined for just 168 point earlier this season in Philly. That game went under and was the highest total posted for these two teams in their last 10 meetings, and this is the second highest. Win: San Antonio holds the Sixers to just 72 points.
Cleveland (+7) over Phoenix: The Cavs ran into a red hot Clippers team the other night and lost ATS, but they stand a better chance ATS tonight. The Cavs have gone 11-3 ATS in Phoenix since 1990 and have taken 4 in a row ATS. Phoenix has gone 0-6-1 ATS against Cleveland since 1990 after winning ATS + going over on the road. Phoenix has lost 9 straight games ATS as home favorites in non-conference games after a road game and 10 straight ATS as home favorites of 6->7.5 points after a road game. The Cavs won an overtime game in Cleveland against the Suns earlier this season and should be able to keep it close tonight. Loss: Cavs were down by just 2 in the second half, but can't hang close.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004:
Toronto/Miami Under 200: These teams have historically played in low scoring games and the total for this one just seems too high at 200 points. Miami has gone under in 11 of their last 15 games in conference after 4 losses ATS. Since 2000, teams playing as home favorites of 8->9.5 points after losing 6 in a row ATS have gone under in all 7 of those games. Toronto has gone under in 7 of their last 8 as dogs after 2 losses, 8 of their last 10 as dogs in conference after losing + over at home, and 7 of 8 as 8->9.5 point dogs in conference after going over at home. Win: This one falls 14 points short of the total as Toronto wins.
L.A. Lakers/Milwaukee Over 199: The Bucks are in a good spot here to put some point up and the Lakers should be able to match. The Lakers have gone over in 7 of their last 8 on the road in 2->3.5 point games after winning and going under. For L.A., the over is 5-0-1 as dogs this season. Milwaukee has gone over in their last 8 as 2->3.5 point favorites in non-conference games after winning ATS + going under, over in 7 straight as home favorites of 2->3.5 points after winning + under, and over in 7 straight at home after going under at home. Since 1990, the Bucks have gone over in 14 of the 18 games they have played in non-conference at home after winning ATS + going under at home. Loss: Low scoring third quarter keeps this one under the total.
Sacramento (+1.5) over Memphis: These teams are heading in opposite directions so far this season. The Kings have won 7 of their last 8 overall and the Grizz are struggling after their coach Brown resigned. Memphis has gone just 1-7 ATS in team history as home favorites of PK->1.5 after losing + going under and 1-7 ATS since 2000 at home in pk->1.5 point games after losing 2 straight. The Kings have won 5 in a row ATS as road dogs after an over and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road with a pk->1.5 point spread after losing SU + ATS. Since 2000, teams playing as road dogs of pk->1.5 in conference after 3 overs have gone 16-4 ATS. Win: Sacramento leads the game almost throughout and wins by 5 points.
Seattle (+2) over Portland: The Sonics seem to continue to be under valued despite their NBA best record. The Sonic have started the season 11-4 ATS and continue to impress. Seattle has also won 10 in a row ATS playing on the road against a conference opponent after a loss ATS. The Supersonics are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in division following 2 wins and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as road dogs in conference after losing ATS + going over. Portland is coming off a sloppy win against New Jersey. The Trailblazers are just 1-8 ATS since last season as favorites after winning ATS at home. Loss: Seattle blows a 13 point lead in the 4th and lose by 6.
Saturday, November 27, 2004:
Dallas/Memphis Over 197 : The Mavericks have played in low scoring games of late and history shows that they should go over this total. Dallas has gone over in 6 straight games in conference after going under in 4 straight games. Dallas has also gone over in 8 of their last 9 conference games on the road after 3 straight unders. The Over for Memphis has gone 7-1 at home since 2000 in conference games after losing ATS + going over on the road and 9-0 at home since last season in conference games after 2 losses on the road. Since 1990, the Grizzlies have gone over in 11 of the 14 games they have played as home favorites after losing SU + ATS + going over. Loss: On pace to go over at half, but Memphis struggles in 2nd.
San Antonio (-9) over Utah: The Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Utah is playing their 7th game in 11 days. San Antonio has had success ATS against the Jazz as they are 6-0 vs. Utah after 2 unders since the 2000 season. San Antonio has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as home favorites after winning + under on the road, 11-1 ATS since last season as home favorites after winning ATS on the road, and 9-0 ATS as home favorites in conference games after 2 wins SU + ATS. Utah has lost 7 games in a row ATS on the road as dogs of 8->9.5 after a home game. The Spurs should be able to handle the fatigued and struggling Jazz tonight. Win: The Spurs are in control the whole night and cruise to a win.
Friday, November 26, 2004:
Portland (+6.5) over Dallas: The Trailblazers are coming off of 2 big road wins in Florida and should be catching the Mavericks at the right time as they are struggling of late. Portland has gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 as road dogs in conference games after winning ATS + going under on the road and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as road dogs after winning on the road. Since 2000, teams have gone 8-1-1 ATS as 6->7.5 point road dogs in conference games after 2 wins on the road. Since last season, teams have gone 9-2-1 ATS as road dogs of 6->7.5 after winning ATS on the road. Dallas has gone just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against Portland after losing SU + ATS. This season teams are just 3-11 ATS as home favorites in conference after losing SU + ATS (Dallas' situation here). Loss: Dallas wins by 9 points, covering the spread by 2.5 points.
Orlando/Atlanta Over 188: The Magic come into town looking to get back on track and the Hawks are the team to do it against. This is the lowest total posted for contests between these two teams in their last 10 meetings. Orlando has gone over in 8 of their last 9 games since last season as favorites after losing ATS + going under. Atlanta has gone over in all six games since 1990 at home after losing SU but winning ATS and going over at home. Atlanta has also gone over in all 7 games since last season as home dogs against conference opponents after winning ATS. This season, teams playing as home dogs in a conference game following a home game have gone over in 8 of the 9 games. Win: This one zooms over the total by 28 points!
Miami (+2) over Detroit: The brawl last Friday may end up hurting the Pistons more than the Pacers. The Pistons are a much worse team defensively without Ben Wallace in the middle. This should open opportunities for Shaq to score and Wade to drive the paint. Detroit has gone just 2-10 ATS since last season as home favorites in a conference game following a loss. Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Miami has gone 9-2 ATS since last season on the road following an over on the road. Win: Miami plays tough throughout and lose by just a point to cover.
Thursday, November 25, 2004:
New Jersey/L.A. Clippers Under 179: The Clippers seem to play to the level of their competition often and with the Nets in town, the scoring should be low. The Net have gone under in 7 straight as road dogs after losing but winning ATS + going under on the road, under in 7 straight in non-conference as road dogs after an under on the road, and under in 6 straight since 2000 after losing + winning ATS. Teams in New Jerseys position of 8->9.5 point dogs in non-conference games after a loss this season have gone under in all 6 games. The under for the Clippers is 11-1 as home favorites in non-conference games after 2 home games since 2000 and 11-1 in their last 12 after 2 home game (5-0 at home). Loss: Hot end to the 3rd pushes this one over the total.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004:
New York (+4) over Toronto: The Raptors are sliding amidst trade rumors of Vince Carter, while the Knicks are playing some of the best basketball in the Eastern Conference. New York has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and Toronto has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Toronto has lost 6 straight meetings ATS to the Knicks after losing ATS + going under and are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Knicks. Teams are 0-7 ATS this season as 4->5.5 point favorites at home in division games. The Knicks have gone 9-1 ATS as road dogs after 4 wins ATS in division games, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 as road dogs of 4->5.5 in division games, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 at Toronto after a home game. Loss: Carter's hot shooting in the 1st half propels the Raptors.
Chicago/Utah Under 190: The winless Bulls have struggled mightily on offense on this long road trip and have gone under in 3 straight games. The Bulls have also managed to go under in 7 straight games against Utah following 3 unders in a row. Chicago has gone under in all 6 games since 1990 as road dogs of 12->13.5 points after losing 7 games in a row. Utah started the year hot offensively, but have cooled off as of late going under in their last 2 games. Utah has gone under in all 8 games they have played against Chicago after going under at home. We like another low scoring affair for the Bulls as this one should fall short of the high total. Loss: Chicago shots light out in the 1st half and this one goes over by 10.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004:
Seattle (+7) over Minnesota: The T-wolves are coming home after a narrow win over the Nowitzki less Mavericks. Minnesota has gone 0-2 ATS on 0 days rest this season and are 1-7-1 ATS so far this season. Minnesota has also gone just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 in division games after winning + losing ATS + going under and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home in conference after winning + losing ATS. Seattle has won 9 in a row ATS in conference games after a loss ATS and 6 in a row ATS as road dogs after losing + going under. The Sonics have also won 8 straight games ATS as road dogs in conference after losing ATS on the road and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as road dogs of 6->7.5 points after 2 road games. Win: Seattle leads throughout and pulls away to a double digit win as dogs!
Sunday, November 21, 2004:
San Antonio (-7) over Toronto: The Spurs roll into town riding a six game win streak, while the Raptors have lost 5 in a row. The Spurs are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 as road favorite in a non-conference game after winning ATS + going under on the road. San Antonio is also 7-1 as road favorites after winning + going under on the road and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as favorites after winning 6 in a row. Toronto is a swirl with trade rumors, so they may be playing for themselves more than the team. Toronto has gone 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games at home following 5 straight losses. Since last season, teams are 0-6 ATS as home dogs of 6->7.5 points after 5 straight loss. Loss: Spurs have an uncharacteristic breakdown in the fourth as they blow a 19 point lead.
Philadelphia/Miami Under 196: This total is set high at 196 despite the history of these teams going under in this situation. Philadelphia has gone under in 7 of their last8 on the road after going under in 3 straight home games. The under for the Sixers is 12-2 in their last 14 games as road dogs in conference games after losing + going under and 8-1 in their last 9 as road dogs after going under at home. Miami has won 2 straight and when facing Philly in that situation, the under has won in all 9 meetings. Philadelphia plays better defensively on the road and they should be able to keep the pace of this one going under the total. Win: Miami wins by 10 and keeps the total under by 20 points.
Cleveland/New York Over 190.5: This Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the league and they have a tendency to over in this situation. Cleveland has gone over in 7 straight games with a 2->3.5 point spread after 5 wins in a row. The over for the Cavs is also 13-1 in their last 14 after 5 wins in a row and 10-0 in their last 10 on the road after 3 straight wins. Teams playing in the Cavs position as road dogs in conference after winning 6 in a row ATS have gone 8-0 ATS since last season. The Knicks have gone over in 2 straight games. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone over when playing in the Garden. Loss: Cavs shoot poorly in 2 quarters as the falls under by a couple of buckets.
Sacramento/Milwaukee Under 207: This total is set high at 207 due to these teams being know for their ability to put points up. They will score today, we just think this total may be too high. Milwaukee has gone under in 12 of their 15 games playing as road dogs after losing SU + ATS + going over on the road. The Kings have gone under in 9 straight games playing as home favorites of 8->9.5 after 2 straight overs. The Kings have also gone under in all 10 games they have played as favorites in non-conference after 2 straight losses ATS + under. Four of the last 5 meetings between these two have gone under and we think it'll be one more. Win: This one goes under by a whopping 40 points!
Saturday, November 20, 2004:
Cleveland (-13) over Charlotte: The Cavs are riding a 5 game winning streak and will look to once again blow out the Bobcats as they won by 17 points on Thursday night in Charlotte. Cleveland is well rested as they have only played just 3 games in the last 9 days. The Cavs have gone 6-0 ATS at home in conference games after 2 wins SU + ATS since last season, 6-0 ATS since 2000 as home favorites in conference after winning ATS on the road, and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as favorites in conference after 2 wins ATS and going over. Since 2000, teams playing as home favorites of 12->13.5 in conference games after 5 wins have gone a nice 11-2. We like the Cavs big tonight. Win: Cavs were by 23 at one point in the fourth and hold on to cover the total by 3.
Friday, November 19, 2004:
Seattle (+1.5) over Toronto: Seattle has been the surprise of the NBA so far this season and we don't understand why they are dogs to the Raptors tonight. Seattle has won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) and Toronto has lost 4 in a row SU. Over the last 2 seasons, Seattle has gone 7-1 ATS as road favorites after an under on the road. Toronto has gone 0-6 ATS as home favorites after 5 road games since 1990. The Raptors are also 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as non-conference home favorites after going over on the road, 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 as favorites after 4 straight losses, 0-9 ATS since 2000 as favorites in non-conference games after losing ATS + going over, and 0-5-1 ATS since last season in PK->2.5 point games. We'll take our chances of the Sonics winning #8 on the road tonight. Win: Seattle takes control in the 2nd half for their 9th straight win.
Dallas (-7.5) over New York: The Mavericks are coming off a home loss to the Suns and should be able to get back on track tonight as they play a Knicks team who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 night in Texas. The Knicks have gone 0-6 ATS against the Mavs following a win ATS. Dallas has taken the last 5 meetings ATS and 4 in a row ATS at home against the Knicks. Dallas has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as 6->7.5 point favorites after losing ATS + going under at home. Teams playing in Dallas' position in a non-conference game after losing at home have gone 12-1 ATS since last season. Nowitzki has been lights out this season, and even with some injury issues, the Mavericks are a superior team to the Knicks. Loss: Mavericks were up 10 in the 4th, but can't hold on to cover.
Thursday, November 18, 2004:
Cleveland/Charlotte Over 194: The Cavs have been on a roll winning 4 straight and history says that the over should win the total line tonight. Cleveland has gone over in all 13 games they have played since 1985 in a conference game after winning 3 in a row. Cleveland has also gone over in 5 straight after winning 4 in a row and in 8 straight as conference favorites after 2 straight home games. Charlotte has gone over in 5 of their 6 games this season, allowing 101 points a game. Charlotte is in the position of home dogs of 6->7.5 points after losing SU but winning ATS at home. Teams playing in that position since the 2000 season have gone over the total in 9 of 10 games. Win: This one inches by the total as the Cavs put up 106 points.
Wednesday, November 17, 2004:
Boston (+2.5) over Washington: The Celtics travel on the road well rested after 4 days off and winning 3 in a row straight up. Their success has been due to their defense, which has allowed just 78.3 points/game in those 3 wins. The Wizards are having trouble playing defense as they are a league worst allowing 104.4 points a game. Boston has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Washington after winning SU + ATS + going under, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as road dogs of 2->3.5 after winning ATS + going under at home, and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as road dogs after 2 home games. Washington started the season well, but has lost 2 in a row. The Wizards are a miserable 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites in conference after losing SU + ATS + going over at home. Loss: Boston takes it to overtime, but loses by 5.
Utah (-2) over Orlando: The Jazz are one of the more dominant teams so far this season and we think this should equate to a victory over an Orlando team that may be balancing out after a fast start. Utah has gone 7-1 ATS in team history as favorites after 6 overs in a row. Utah is also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road in non-conference games after losing ATS + going over and 7-1 ATS since last season as favorites after losing ATS + going over. The Jazz have won 7 in a row ATS against Orlando as favorites after losing ATS on the road. Teams playing in Utah's position of road favorites after 6 overs have gone 14-3 ATS since 2000. Orlando has gone 0-9 ATS as 2->3.5 point dogs in their last 9 non-conference games after losing + going under and are 0-6 ATS as home dogs after losing ATS + going under since last season. Loss: Utah was winning by double digits at one point, but does nothing in the 4th quarter.
Minnesota (+5.5) over Detroit: The Pistons have not had an easy going against the T-wolves in recent meetings. Minnesota has won 3 straight contests in the regular season against the Pistons and took both of the pre-season contest this season. Minnesota has gone 11-3 ATS as road dogs in non-conference games after a home game since the 2000 season. That home game last night was Minnesota best played game of the season so far. Detroit is 0-6 ATS as home favorites of 4->5.5 points after 2 losses ATS, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 as favorites after 2 road games, and 0-6 ATS last season at home after 3 straight losses ATS. Teams playing in Detroit's position of home favorites of 4->5.5 points in non-conference games after 3 overs the past few seasons have gone a dismal 1-10 ATS. Loss: Minnesota leads throughout the first half, but can't keep it close enough at the end as they lose by 8.
Monday, November 15, 2004:
Golden State/Cleveland Over 179: The Cavs and Warriors are in a good spot to topple the total tonight. Golden State is in the midst of a long road stretch. The Warriors have gone over in 7 straight games as non-conference road dogs after 3 previous road games. The Cavs have gone over in 10 of their last 11 at home after winning ATS + going under and 7 of their last 8 since last season after 3 straight wins. The Cavs have also gone over in all 7 games since the 2000 season when playing as favorites after 3 straight wins SU + ATS. With the last 3 meeting in this series going over the total, we like it to continue for a 4th time. Win: This one topples the total by 8 points as the Cavs put up 100.
Sunday, November 14, 2004:
Memphis/Seattle Under 193.5: The Sonics have got off to a fast start this season as their offense has carried them to victory but their defense has held teams under 90 points in their last 3 games. The Sonics have gone under in 8 straight games with a 4->5.5 point spread after winning SU + losing ATS + going under. The Under for Seattle is also 6-0-1 when they play at home following 5 straight wins and 9-0 for them at home in conference games after winning 3 straight. Memphis has gone under in 6 straight games as road dogs of 4->5.5 after 2 straight wins and under in 7 straight as road dogs of 4->5.5 after going under at home. The Grizz have gone under in 15 of their last 17 games in conference after winning SU + ATS + going under. Loss: Teams shoot lights out in the first half to kill any chance of an under.
Saturday, November 13, 2004:
San Antonio (-12.5) over Atlanta: The Spurs have looked in mid-season form so far this season and should be a focused group tonight against Atlanta. The Spurs have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games as favorites against Atlanta. The Spurs have gone under in 2 straight and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in this situation. Atlanta has gone just 1-11 ATS as dogs since last season after a win ATS on the road and 0-6 in non-conference games after winning on the road last season (one was a loss to the Spurs by 39 points). Atlanta has also gone just 1-7 ATS since the 2000 season as home dogs after a win. We like the Spurs in a blowout tonight. Win: The Spurs cruise to a blow out win in Atlanta.
Friday, November 12, 2004:
Miami/San Antonio Under 187: The Spurs and Heat meet tonight in a series where the under has ruled the book for 9 straight meetings and beyond. The Spurs have gone under against the Heat in 8 straight meetings after playing their previous game at home. The Heat have gone under against the Spurs in 8 straight meetings after losing their previous game. Miami has gone under in all 6 games since last season in non-conference after 2 straight home games. The under for the Heat is also 11-1 in their last 12 as 6->7.5 point dogs in a non-conference game after losing + going over. The Spurs have gone under in 10 of their last 12 as home favorites after going under at home. Both of these teams think defense first and this should be another to fall under the total. Win: A total of 177 is scored as the Spurs shut down the heat.
Atlanta/New Orleans Under 190: The Hawks and Hornets have gone under the total in their recent meetings as the under is 5-1 in their last 6. For the Hawks, the under is 6-0 as road dogs of 10->11.5 after 3 losses, 10-1 in their last 11 non-conference games as dogs after an under, and 11-1 since last season in non-conference games after losing + going under. For the Hornets, the under is 9-1-1 in home games after 4 straight losses since the 2000 season. New Orleans has also gone under in 6 straight non-conference games after losing at home. For teams playing as home favorites of 10->11.5 points after losing ATS and going over at home since last season, the under is 10-2. One of these teams usually scores in the low 80s or 70s when these teams meet and we expect the same tonight. Loss: Bad luck in this one as it goes over by 1 point.
Thursday, November 11, 2004:
Detroit/Denver Under 184.5: The Nuggets have had trouble scoring this season and should find it difficult against the defending champs tonight as well. The Pistons have gone under in 8 of their last 9 games as favorites against the Nuggets and their last 5 meetings have fallen under the total as well. Denver has gone over in 7 of their 8 games at home after losing and going over since last season (the time it went under was against the Pistons). Detroit has gone under in 7 of their last 8 as favorites after 3 losses ATS since last season and 7 of their last 8 in non-conference games after losing ATS on the road. Loss: Don't think we'll see Detroit give up 117 points again this season.
Wednesday, November 10, 2004:
Portland (+3) over Boston: The Trailblazers will be desperate for a win after dropping 2 of their first 3 games on this road trip. Portland is in a good spot as they have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Celtics ATS (including an 11 point win in Boston last season). Portland has gone 7-0 ATS as road dogs in non-conference games after losing ATS dating back to 2000. Portland is also 10-1 ATS as road dogs of 2->3.5 points in non-conference games after a loss. Boston has gone just 1-7 in the last 8 ATS at home after going under on the road and are 0-7 ATS since 2000 as 2->3.5 point home favorites after winning ATS + going under on the road. We look for a motivating performance from the Trailblazers tonight. Win: Portland losses by 2 on a last second shot by Pierce.
Indiana (-7.5) over L.A. Clippers: The Pacers will be playing without Artest, but we don't think that will matter in this contest. Since last season, Indiana has gone 9-0 ATS as 8->9.5 point favorites after an over and 11-1-1 ATS after 3 overs. Since 2000, the Pacers have gone 8-0 ATS as 8->9.5 point favorites after 2 games where they both won and went over. The Clippers are playing a non-conference game after losing SU, but winning ATS and going over. In that situation, L.A. is 0-6 ATS since 2000 on the road and 0-6 ATS since 1990 as 8->9.5 point dogs. Last season the Pacers were 10-0 ATS in non-conference games after going over on the road and we like the trend to continue tonight. Loss: Worst loss in Pacers home history.
Orlando (+2) over Washington: The Magic have played well this season so far and so has the Wizards. We feel this is a spot where the Wizards have failed in the past and their demise may have started after getting whipped by Miami last night. Washington is just 2-11 ATS in division games at home since last season and are 0-7 ATS in 2->3.5 point games within their division after an under. Since 2000, the Wizards are 0-6 ATS as home favorites in division games after going under on the road. The Magic have taken 5 in a row ATS against the Wizards and are playing good enough basketball on both ends of the court to get the job done tonight. Loss: Orlando plays close until the end and losses by 10.
Utah (-9) over Toronto: The Jazz have been one of the big surprises this season after winning all 4 games this season by double digits. Toronto has played well this year so far, but are in the midst of a west coast road trip that started with a beating at Sacramento last night. Utah has gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites after an over and 8-1-1 in their last 10 games as home favorites against non-conference opponents after going over at home. Since last season, teams in the NBA have gone 17-5-2 ATS as 8->9.5 point favorites after 3 wins SU + ATS. Since 2000, teams have gone 9-1-1 ATS as 8->9.5 point favorites after 3 wins + going over. Loss: Jazz get skunked by the Raptors in a game they were up 9 in the 3rd.
Sacramento/Seattle Over 204.5: The Kings and Sonics are in a familiar spot to go over the total. Five of the last 6 meetings between these two teams has gone over the total and tonight should be another high scoring affair. Sacramento has gone over in 7 of their 8 games played against Seattle as favorites after winning ATS. Seattle has gone over in 7 of their 8 home games against Sacramento after 2 wins ATS. Seattle is playing as home dogs after 3 straight wins. Since last season in the NBA when this situation has occurred, the over has gone a nice 10-1. Seattle has averaged 109.5 points at home this season while Sacramento is giving up 104 points a game on the road. Loss: Sacramento is miserable from the floor in this one.
Tuesday, November 9, 2004:
Cleveland/Atlanta Over 188.5: The Hawks have struggled this season stopping teams from scoring as they have allowed 108 points a game. The Cavs defense hasn't fared much better as they have allowed 101 points a game. Cleveland has gone over in 10 of their last 12 meetings with Atlanta after a loss ATS. For Cleveland, the over is 14-4 since 1990 as 6->7.5 point favorites after 2 unders and 7-1 since 2000 as road favorites. Atlanta, who is coming off 3 straight road games, has gone over in 7 of their 8 meetings vs. Cleveland at home after 3 road games. Atlanta has gone over in all 3 of those games and the Hawks have gone over in all 6 games they have played as home dogs of 6->7.5 points after an over since 1990. Loss: Atlanta manages just 25 second half points after scoring 54 in the first.
Chicago (+8.5) over Phoenix: The Bulls are big home dogs to a hot Phoenix team, but Chicago may be in a position to keep this close tonight. Chicago will have a big size advantage with Eddie Curry and Antonio Davis back in the line up following their 2 game suspension. In November games, the Bulls have gone 21-7 ATS as 8->9.5 point dogs in non-conference games following 2 overs. Phoenix has gone just 1-8 ATS as road favorites in non-conference games after 2 road games, 1-7-1 ATS as road favorites after 2 wins, and 0-7 ATS as road favorites against Chicago following a road game. Teams in the NBA playing as non-conference road favorites after 3 wins ATS have gone just 17-39-2 ATS (30%). We'll take the points at home with the Bulls. Loss: Horrid 1st quarter by the Bulls puts them too far behind.
Saturday, November 6, 2004:
Chicago/Indiana Over 174.5: These teams have a knack for going over the total when they get together. Chicago has gone over in 9 of their last 10 games as road dogs in division after losing SU + ATS + going Over at home. The Bulls have also gone over in 10 of their last 11 on the road in division games after losing ATS + going over. Six of the last seven meeting between these two have gone over and none of the lines set for the totals in those games was this low. The over for Indiana has gone 7-0 as home favorites against Chicago after an over on the road. Teams have gone over in all 6 games played as 8->9.5 point home favorites after 2 wins SU + over on the road. Win: Total of 190 in this one as it covers easily.
Sacramento (+3.5) over Houston: The Kings have played poorly in two games this season, but we like the chances of it turning around tonight. Sacramento is coming off of 2 days rest and Houston is playing their 4th game in 5 days. The Kings have gone 6-0 ATS vs. Houston as road dogs after 2 road games and have won 7 straight ATS as road dogs after 2 losses. Since 2000, Sacramento has gone 5-0-1 against Houston after losing on the road and Houston has gone 0-5-1 ATS against the Kings at home after 2 games on the road. Houston is also just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 as home favorites of 2->3.5 after 2 road games. Fatigue may play a part as the Kings should keep it close. Win: Sacramento leads most of the game, but loses by just 3 in OT to cover the spread.
Friday, November 5, 2004:
Detroit/Toronto Under 169.5: The Pistons have rode their defense to a championship and these teams seem to play D well when they meet as they have gone under in 8 of their last 10 meetings. Detroit has gone under in all 6 matchups with Toronto after an under and in 11 of their last 12 games on the road after winning ATS + going under at home. Toronto has gone under in 12 of 13 games played as home dogs in conference after going over at home. The under has gone 5-0-1 for Toronto as home dogs of 4->5.5 points in conference games after an over at home and 9-1 at home against Detroit after a previous home game. Loss: Piston lack coach and lack defense.
Thursday, November 4, 2004:
Charlotte (+4.5) over Washington: The Wizard's had a big win last night over the Grizz on the road, but may have problems tonight as Charlotte opens their new franchise. Charlotte played Washington tough in their 2 preseason games, one without Okafur and the other was a double OT loss. The Wizards have gone 2-12 ATS in their history on the road in division games with a 4->5.5 point spread after going over and have lost 6 straight ATS as favorites in division games after a road game. Since 2000, teams in the NBA playing in Washington's position of road favorites of 4->5.5 points in division games after winning SU + ATS + going over have gone just 10-22-1 ATS. We have Charlotte as a 3-0 consensus formula pick and we'll take the points in what should be a very competitive game tonight. Loss: Bobcats have a lead in the 4th, but lose control as this picks losses by just 2.5 points.
Wednesday, November 3, 2004:
Cleveland (-2.5) over Indiana: The Pacers come into tonight's game limping and the Cavs are a hungry team that has looked sharp in the pre-season. Indiana will be playing without 3 starters, none more important than their MVP in O'neil. The Pacers will be weak on the inside without Foster at Center and their top reserve of the bench in Bender is banged up as well. In all, Indiana has 6 players out or day-to-day, including Reggie Miller. Cleveland went 3-1 ATS last season against the Pacers and should start this season off strong as well. Indiana has gone just 8-21 ATS since 2000 in division games with a 2->3.5 point spread. We have the Cavs as a formula pick that has won over 60% of the time and we like them at home tonight. Loss: Cavs start slow, Double OT game and Indiana wins.
Milwaukee (+4.5) over Orlando: The Bucks are a talented team that was underated last season and we feel they are being slighted to start this season as well. Milwaukee will be playing without two point guards, but they have 2 adequate backups available. Milwaukee has won their last 3 games ATS against Orlando. In the month of November since 1990, Milwaukee has gone 9-2-2 ATS as road dogs of 4->5.5 points and Orlando has gone 0-9-1 ATS as home favorites. Orlando was a miserable 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home last season. While Orlando has a new look team that should be improved, we'll take the points and the more experienced Bucks to start the season. We have Milwaukee as a 3-0 formula pick as well. Win: Last second shot by Orlando wins the game, but doesn't cover the spread.
Memphis (-12.5) over Washington: The Grizzlie's are favored in this game by big points with good reason. The Wizards are starting their season out with only one of their projected 5 starters for the regular season in this game and that is Jamison (who is new to the team). The Wizards have gone just 2-9 ATS as road dogs of 12->13.5 since the 2000 season. Memphis is returning 14 of their 15 players from last season and had an excellent 6-2 preseason mark. Memphis has gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games as home favorites and are 23-9 in that spot since 2000. With Memphis as a 3-0 Formula pick, we like the Grizz to roll tonight. Loss: Up by 16 in the 1st and 8 at half, Memphis doesn't show in the 2nd half and gets embarrassed.
Tuesday, November 2, 2004:
Dallas (-4) over Sacramento: Sacramento comes into Dallas for the second time in a week as the Mavericks beat the King by 9 in the preseason game last week. The Kings have not played well in the preseason as they lost all 4 games on the road and dropped 4 of their last 5 games losing by totals of 25, 13, 9, and 28. Dallas out rebounded the Kings in their game 42-28. Dallas has gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Kings. Dallas has won their last 7 home openers and should be able to match that feat tonight by more than the 4 points. Dallas is also a pick from a formula we have that has won over 60% of the time since 1990. Win: The Mavericks stay in control the whole game as they win by 9 points!